The Final Scenario

Prospects of Escalation in Qatar Crisis

Future for Advanced Research and Studies

Monday, July 17, 2017

The Final Scenario

The Abu Dhabi based Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS) held a workshop on July 13, 2017 titled “the Last Scenario: Prospects of Escalation in the Qatar Crisis.” With the attendance of the heads of research units and researchers, the workshop focused on the potential escalation scenarios in the crisis. 

During the workshop, FARAS Academic Director Dr. Mohamed Abdel-Salam explained that most writings on this matter, among media outlets or by think tanks have failed to address the crisis from a theoretical perspective. Thus, Abdel-Salam presented a research paper on theoretical frameworks that can contribute to analysis of the crisis, and found “Game theory” the most suitable. He further gave an overview of the general complex features of the crisis, which can forecast there is no single path to end the crisis.

Using elements of game theory, Abdel-Salam explained the different scenarios for the crisis, their determinants. He further presented the various alternatives for parties, and emphasized that the upcoming phase will witness “escalation alternatives,” as the Arab Quartet countries are insisting on fulfilling their demands.

The debate during the workshop focused on analyzing the main features of the crisis, and the fact that is an unprecedented development in the region. Researchers discussed that the crisis has transformed into an extended “open confrontation.” They further stated that the prospects for settlements are declining, in comparison to the escalation path, given the complexity of the crisis, its stakeholders, demands, and repercussions. Despite all the scenarios, it is noted that the region will no longer be the same. 

promotional content