**This opinion piece was published in the Trending Events periodical, issued by Future for Advanced Research & Studies - Issue 17, May-Jun 2016.
This is an extraordinary American election. The rise of Donald Trump, which has confounded all the experts, is the most remarkable characteristic of a remarkable political season, generating much angst, confusion, fury, and fear.
Why is Donald Trump, a vulgar political outsider, receiving so much support? Why do people vote for him? A brief examination of the American political system and current trends in American public opinion can shed some light on this matter and hopefully alleviate some of the lurid speculation on this most remarkable celebrity politician.
The Rise of the Professional Politician
The American political system is subject to periodic changes, shifts, and crises. Most of the time, these changes are incremental. At other times, they appear to be revolutionary. The political success of Donald Trump appears to be the latter. However, a deeper investigation suggests this is just a matter of perception.
The American political system was designed with the idea that public service would be a calling, not a career. People would be drawn to public service after (or in between) pursuing their regular professions. Most of America’s first presidents, for example, had never held elected office.
Over time, in America as well as in much of the West, a cadre of career politicians has emerged. These are, generally, women and men who have graduated from a few select colleges (every American president since Ronald Reagan has attended an Ivy League college, including both the Republican and Democrat presumptive nominees; every British Prime Minister since James Callahan has attended Oxford). Most Americans view this as a negative development.
The Growth of Political Dissatisfaction in America
There is a rising public disenchantment with this so-called “professional governing class.” The relative isolation of most politicians in America from the day-to-day problems of Americans has led to a feeling that the significant political division is not between Democrats and Republicans, but rather between the governors and the governed. There is a general consensus among American politicians on issues such as free trade and the powers of markets – both Republican and Democratic presidents have promoted free-trade deals.
Some of America’s problems – such as the loss of manufacturing jobs, the deterioration of domestic infrastructure, and the increase in terrorist incidents in the United States – seem to be resistant to the policies of either party. The decline of good paying blue collar jobs in America appears to be a function of global economic change, and not governmental policy. This distinction is lost on Americans who feel their economic and social security are being compromised.
When Americans feel politicians are not representing their interests, the tendency is to reach outside the usual group of politicians and reach for a leader who has no history of political involvement. The last time we saw this at the Presidential level was with the election of Dwight Eisenhower, an Army General, in 1952 during a protracted war and economic downturn. More recently, at the state level, voters in California removed a lifetime politician from the Governorship and replaced him with Arnold Schwarzenegger (an actor of sorts), and voters in Minnesota elected Jesse Ventura (a professional wrestler) as governor over the son of Minnesota’s most famous politician, Hubert Humphrey.
Americans hold a paradoxical view about their politicians – they don’t want them to be politicians. When policies are seen to fail, they reach outside the system. Trump’s reputation as a decisive businessman who gets things done is very appealing to those disenchanted with the political class.
The Decline of Party and Ideology
One remarkable fact about Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, is that he was a member of the Democratic Party until 2009. Normally this would disqualify him from any serious consideration as a major Republican candidate. However, in the current climate of disenchantment, his lack of ideology and party loyalty is seen as a strength. He is not regarded as beholden to the group of hacks who have produced different faces with the same policies, but rather as a strong personality who can cut the Gordian Knot of American politics. Trump has the advantage of offering a technocratic, efficient image which is not beholden to any ideology or party. His promise is to get things done: this is appealing to Americans.
One major factor in Trump's success is his appeal to the base of the Republican party, which is increasingly divorced from its elite. Many in the Republican base have felt that they have been taken for granted by the party leadership (which allegedly favors business concerns over the social ones which animate the base) and has continually offered up relatively lackluster candidates such as Mitt Romney.
Trump has exploited the division between Republican elites (the “country club Republicans”) and the Republican base masterfully. He has defied –and appalled -- the party’s leaders and has confounded the experts. He speaks to the Republican base more effectively than any politician since Ronald Reagan.
Demonization of Foreigners?
Trump is driven by a healthy ego and by a view that he can solve problems which politicians cannot. He has, however, made much news by his supposed demonization of foreigners, particularly Mexican illegal immigrants and Muslims.
Trump’s remarks about illegal immigrants – most of whom are Latin and Christian – draws on the aversion Americans have to see their laws broken. America tolerates illegal immigration, but the costs and benefits of it are not distributed equally, and this tolerance is declining. Americans who rely on public services (that is, those who cannot afford to send their children to private schools or live in gated communities) see the effect illegal immigration has on America. They see crowded emergency rooms, overcrowded schools, and declining wages for low-skilled labor. This animates the Republican base.
The Republican elite sees immigration providing more efficient labor and growing markets – and is insulated from the social costs of illegal immigration. Trump has exploited this division between the elite and the base in a masterful manner. One thing that does not drive Trump is an animus towards Islam. His well-publicized statements about excluding Muslim refugees from coming to the United States does not reflect a long-standing animus to the religion; rather, it reflects a lack of trust in the US Government’s ability to adequately screen refugees.
His remarks on immigration draw from a long-established American aversion to allowing immigrants from other countries to bring their conflicts with them. The initial targets of this aversion were Catholics in the mid-1800s – the construction of the Washington Monument was suspended for decades because the Pope donated a stone for its construction. Throughout the 19th Century, there were various riots and military actions involving Irish Catholics in America who were either seen as threats to the existing American order, as a criminal underclass, or as an enemy within determined to wage war against the British in Canada from a base in the USA. Immigration has been restricted periodically throughout American history.
Trump's remarks in the wake of the Paris, Orlando, and San Bernardino shootings reflect a pragmatic approach that is within this (rather unattractive) stream of American thought. As a practical matter, once an immigrant or a refugee comes to the United States it is impossible to remove them unless they commit a major crime. Most will eventually become American citizens. Trump’s call for a halt in allowing Syrian and Afghan refugees to enter the United States reflect a lack of confidence in the United States Government’s ability to screen refugees and prevent harmful actors from settling within the US as citizens. While easily portrayed as a broader manifestation of Islamophobia, it is yet another indication of dissatisfaction with the American political system and its failure to protect the fundamental interests of Americans.
The Road Ahead
I did not predict and could not have foreseen the success of Donald Trump so far. I know of no other observer of American politics who predicted Trump would capture the Republican nomination. Donald Trump may become president. But what will change?
The office of the Presidency tends to moderate the actions of those who occupy it. The problems America faces are profound, and there really is not a wide range of action which can be taken. If Trump becomes president, there will be less change than most people think. America has a strong political and social culture, and there have been dire predictions made for the presidency of men such as Ronald Reagan and John F. Kennedy. American policy, at the end of the day, is driven by American interests. Those interests will remain constant under Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, and the policies will differ less than we suppose.
*The writer’s opinions are his own, and do not reflect the views of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense or any office of the United States Government.
