FARAS’s “Trending Events” met with Dr. Joost Hiltermann, Head of the Middle East Department at the International Crisis Group, in Brussels at the beginning of this year. The team engaged in a dialogue with him regarding the significant security transformations occurring in the Middle East amidst the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip since October 7, 2023. During the discussion, Dr. Hiltermann emphasized the continued importance of the Palestinian issue in shaping regional policies. He also highlighted the risks of miscalculations and the potential for escalation among major regional powers and explored the possibilities that a rapprochement might bring. The team also gained insights into the approaches employed by the International Crisis Group in addressing the complex issues that have long dominated the Middle East.
1. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been overshadowed by the ongoing and overlapping conflicts in the region over the past two decades. Civil wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya, as well as conflicting geopolitical mechanisms between Middle Eastern regional powers, have taken precedence. However, with the recent outbreak of war in Gaza, the question arises: will the Palestinian issue regain its status as the "central issue" of the Arab world and the Middle East, as it did in previous periods?
In my view, the Israel-Palestine conflict has always been at the heart of the Middle East's various conflicts. While the region has experienced conflicts driven by different factors, such as ideology, religion, and Iran's influence, the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians stands out as the oldest in the modern Middle East. It emerged at the end of World War I and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and has since spread throughout the region, directly impacting the Israel-Palestine relations and extending its influence to neighboring states. This conflict has even started to manifest itself in the Red Sea and potentially the Persian Gulf. Its reverberations continue to intensify, making it increasingly central to the region's dynamics.
While the aftermath of the 2011 uprisings and the breakdown of several Arab states temporarily diverted attention to other conflicts, such as civil wars, the centrality of the Israel-Palestine conflict remains unchanged amidst these developments. The Israel-Palestine conflict holds a central position not only due to its historical precedence in the region but also because it embodies a larger struggle between Israel and the Arab World.
After the conclusion of World War I, there was a growing desire to establish a unified Arab state following the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire. However, instead of a single Arab state, multiple Arab countries emerged, fueling the rise of Arab nationalism with the aim of unifying the Arab world. Consequently, the establishment of the State of Israel was perceived by many in the Arab world as a Western strategy to not only divide but also control and exploit the resources of the Arab nations. This perception remains prevalent today, reflecting the ongoing belief that Israel's existence is a manifestation of the West's endeavor to perpetuate division within the Arab world.
This state of affairs is unlikely to change until a resolution is achieved for both the Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab conflicts. Central to these conflicts is the issue of Jerusalem, which holds profound significance not only for Israelis and Palestinians but also for the wider Arab and Islamic worlds. This conflict transcends typical disputes seen in the Global South and is likely to retain its pivotal status until a viable solution is realized, despite the current challenges.
2. Since hostilities erupted in Palestine, there has been a tendency to describe the region as being on the brink of "total war," but this has not been the case so far. Iran and its allies, particularly Hezbollah and other groups in Syria and Iraq, have opted for a "calculated escalation," as most regional powers have little to gain from an expanded conflict. What potential miscalculation could lead to the "worst case scenario" in the Gaza war?
At this stage of the conflict, I do not anticipate a significant escalation. While predicting the path of escalation is challenging, it may be triggered by an unexpected event. For instance, the killing of Qassem Soleimani in 2021 initially appeared to have the potential for escalation, albeit it did not materialize into a major conflict. Although there were retaliatory attacks between Iran and the United States, ultimately, the situation did not escalate. Similarly, the recent killing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander in Syria in late December did not lead to further escalation up to this point.
Actually, the potential trigger for an escalation is a miscalculation.Consider a scenario involving two parties, such as Israel and the axis of resistance, each with its own set of undisclosed "red lines." If one party crosses the other's red lines, it could lead to escalation. The ambiguity surrounding these red lines is deliberate and essential for managing the conflict. Consequently, the flexibility of these redlines becomes apparent, indicating a tendency for them to shift. So, what we once considered a red line, perhaps on October 7 or even October 6, is no longer viewed as such today. Despite this, the conflict has remained contained.
In essence, both sides have displayed a higher level of tolerance than we initially anticipated on October 6. If such an assassination had occurred on October 6, it might have led to an immediate escalation. However, the current situation follows a series of actions that have progressively pushed the red lines further away. This trend suggests that neither side is currently inclined towards all-out war. In conflict, redlines must be flexible. Nevertheless, there are instances where a redline can be violated, especially when the opposing side commits an act so egregious that it demands a response. The crucial question then becomes: how should one respond? Should the response respect the enemy's redline while also testing its limits, or should it be forceful enough to necessitate an even greater counter-response? This delicate balance is a high-stakes game that, thus far, has not resulted in catastrophic escalation, despite the war being nearly three months old. This itself is a remarkable feat, given the precarious nature of such situations.
3. The Iranian axis and its allies may feel pressured by the rhetoric, which emphasizes support for the resistance and opposition to the West and Israel. This pressure could potentially lead to miscalculations or uncalculated escalation. Do you believe they will strive to maintain the necessary credibility?
The primary party deeply involved in the conflict is Hezbollah. It seems unlikely that they desire escalation beyond a certain threshold. Hassan Nasrallah, as a legitimate leader within Hezbollah, likely aims to navigate the situation strategically. As long as he enjoys substantial support, his decisions can sway the party's followers. It is improbable that Nasrallah would explicitly endorse Hamas, especially considering their recent attack on Israel on October 7. While they might have contributed to Hamas' training, the timing of the attack appears to have been an independent decision, possibly involving Saleh Al-Arouri, who was assassinated on January 2. Even Israeli intelligence seems to concur with this assessment, indicating a lack of coordination.
Hezbollah may say to Hamas: "You have reaped the fruits of your actions. We must consider our position towards Israel and understand that we cannot appear weak. At the same time, we would like to choose the timing of our confrontation with Israel. We are the ones who will decide if and when the confrontation will take place. We will not follow you."
4. In your recent Foreign Affairs op-ed, entitled "No Exit from Gaza," you discussed the entrapment of Israel and Gaza. Given the uncertainty surrounding "the next day of war", and the management of non-military affairs, could you share perspective on the underlying causes of Israel's miscalculations in its approach to Gaza and the Palestinians?
I vividly recall Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech at the UN General Assembly in September 2023, where he outlined his plans to forge a new Middle East alliance involving some Arab Gulf States and India. This alliance was envisioned as a rival to China’s Belt and Road initiative.
In this vision, the Palestinian question was overlooked, drawing opposition from the Palestinians themselves. However, the scales tipped when Hamas launched an unexpected attack. Israel was caught off guard as it had underestimated the capabilities of Hamas, perceiving them as weak and restrained.
Despite being aware of Hamas' aspirations and plans for the attack since October 7, Israel's complacency and arrogance led to the disregard of these warnings. This dangerous combination resulted in the mistaken belief that their adversary was incapable of executing their intentions.
5. As the war persisted, it became evident that the United States was in a precarious position. The decision to swiftly provide military and diplomatic support to Israel, despite the risk of further destabilizing its influence in the already troubled region, highlighted the challenges it faced. Is there any hope for Western countries to reassess their approach to the Middle East and North Africa, and perhaps work towards rebuilding trust with the disillusioned younger Arab generations?
It is evident that the Western countries' standing in the Arab, Islamic, and Global South regions has been significantly compromised due to the perceived double standards in their approach, particularly concerning the Israeli attack on Gaza since October 7. Despite the ongoing economic dominance of the Western world, the potential replacement by China remains uncertain. Whether this replacement will occur and when it might happen is unclear. Nevertheless, the Western world retains the capability to reclaim its influential position in some capacity.
While the Western world may struggle to completely eliminate its policy of double standards in its interactions with Arabs and Muslims, it can potentially adapt to the evolving global landscape to secure economic influence. Taking substantive actions, such as facilitating peace between Israel and Palestine, could aid in the partial restoration of the Western world's legitimacy and status in the Arab world, thereby improving its perception.
The future trajectory of the Western powers hinges on their actions. Despite the current challenges, it is premature to assert a permanent loss of their position. The West continues to wield significant influence and capabilities. While there is hope for some degree of restoration, a sense of optimism remains guarded.
6. The previous attempts at rapprochement between regional powers, such as the period before the Gaza War involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and other Arab countries, as well as the Arab-Israeli normalization, have not resulted in a resolution to the long-standing regional conflicts. Despite the belief that most of these conflicts were merely "small wars by proxy" between regional powers, they continue to persist. In light of this, it is worth considering whether there is any possibility for the region to undertake more stable and profound initiatives that address the root causes of instability?
I initially held a pessimistic view regarding the evolving relations among the states in the region over the past three to four years. However, the recent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023 has played a pivotal role in averting a potentially deeper division following the events of October 7. President Ibrahim Raisi's unprecedented visit to Saudi Arabia and his participation in the Arab-Islamic Summit, despite differing stances, underscored the significance of maintaining open channels of communication between the two regional powers. This diplomatic engagement, albeit at an elite level, has helped mitigate mounting pressures.
However, it's crucial to acknowledge that this rapprochement is still in its nascent stage and primarily involves the region's elite. It has yet to address the underlying systemic issues plaguing the region, particularly the governance inefficiencies that I elaborated on in a previous article for "Foreign Affairs." True resolution demands effective governance, and it is imperative for the region's influential nations to prioritize this for sustainable progress.
7. Regional powers, especially those in the GCC, have displayed significant maneuvering in their relations with international powers. This is evident in the aftermath of the Ukraine war, with some of them recently joining the BRICS and actively seeking to diversify their alliances. How do you perceive this trend? To what extent can we envision a Middle East with minimal foreign influence?
I believe that the Arab Gulf countries, particularly those engaging with Israel, China, and Russia, are doing so to assert influence in response to what they perceive as a diminishing role of their main ally, the United States. An example of this perception is the limited response from the United States in September 2019 following the attacks on Saudi facilities “Aramco” in Jeddah and Riyadh by Iran. This has led these countries to seek communication with other global players.
To add, the role of Russia in the Middle East is primarily focused on Syria at present, limiting its overall influence in the region. Conversely, while China is undoubtedly emerging as a global power, it currently lacks the readiness to supplant the West's influence in the Middle East. Consequently, nations aligned with the United States have come to the realization that they will continue to rely heavily on its military prowess. However, in the event of a potential decline in US military dominance, these nations may seek to exert influence and pressure in an effort to dissuade the United States from relinquishing its position and abandoning its regional allies.
8. Regarding the US presidential elections in November and the significant fires that occurred in the Middle East afterward. If the Republicans regain control of the White House, how might they address the Palestinian issue and the broader situation in the Middle East? Conversely, if the Democrats retain control, is there potential for a shift in their approach or policies toward the region?
It seems that over the past two to three decades, there have been notable shifts in US policy in the region. These changes often occur with each new president, albeit sometimes with minimal impact. Additionally, there appears to be a growing inclination towards disengagement from the region, a pivot towards China, and an increased reliance on domestic oil and gas reserves, particularly through fracking and shale oil. This trend is expected to persist, reflecting a heightened inclination towards isolationism that initially surfaced during President Obama's tenure and continued through the presidencies of Trump and Biden.
While this overarching trend persists, each president brings their unique approach to the region and the global stage. If Trump were to return, his unpredictability would once again become a focal point. While his senior advisors took a different approach from Obama, they were more forthcoming about their ideas and how they aligned with American interests. In contrast, Trump's spontaneous decision-making often led to situations where his aides had to backtrack. If this were to recur, the outcome would be highly uncertain, and this uncertainty stems not from his ideology, but from his unpredictability and inconsistency.
In the context of the Middle East, both Republican and Democratic presidents do not significantly differ in their approach to the Palestinian issue. Historically, American administrations, regardless of their political affiliation, have maintained a pro-Israel stance, offering limited support to the Palestinians. While they have restrained the pace of Israel's efforts to annex the occupied territories – the West Bank and East Jerusalem – they have not taken substantial measures to halt this process. Therefore, I believe this situation is unlikely to change irrespective of the occupant of the White House.
9. You have closely observed the development of the MENA region and its conflicts, dynamics over decades. Is it accurate to label the region as "Unpredictable"? Or do we simply overlook the "obvious invisibles" or become victims of prejudices and biases regarding the MENA region and its peoples? As a veteran member of the International Crisis Group, how do you untangle the complexities of the region?
The future is inherently unpredictable, and this holds especially true for the Middle East. Much like any other region in the world, the Middle East is often deemed too complex to comprehend. However, when considering the complexities of other regions, one might find that they are equally intricate. It's a common notion that everything appears complex until one delves into its study. Surprisingly, even after thorough examination, the complexity of a subject may exceed initial assumptions. It's a reminder that accurate predictions are challenging due to the multitude of imponderables and influential events that shape outcomes, many of which are impossible to fully factor in.
There are numerous examples to look at, such as the uprisings in 2011, Hamas’s attack on October 7, and many other major world events. At the International Crisis Group, our focus is not on predicting events, as we recognize the inherent difficulty in doing so. Social science research attempting to predict uprisings and other events has not yielded significant progress in developing a systematic assessment. Instead, our approach is to offer in-depth and impartial analyses of conflict situations. This enables us to be prepared to analyze the responses and perspectives of various actors when unforeseen events, such as the October 7 incident involving Hamas, occur.
I can say that I didn’t anticipate Hamas's actions, but in hindsight, I can discern various factors that led to it. One factor was that Hamas was facing increasing opposition from the people of Gaza. There were widespread protests against Hamas due to its ineffective governance. While Hamas attributes its lack of governance to the Israeli blockade, the people on the streets are more concerned about bread on the table. If the government fails to provide for them, they will hold both the Israelis and their local government accountable. So, when considering these factors, it becomes evident that the situation had become unsustainable for Hamas. Instead of giving up and leaving, which is not in line with its identity as a resistance movement, Hamas took action consistent with its principles. However, this doesn't explain the specific course of action taken, which requires further analysis. By examining the motivations of all parties in an unbiased manner, and engaging with all sides, we aim to bring clarity to these issues and work towards a negotiated and peaceful solution, especially challenging in the context of the Israel-Palestine conflict.
10. You possess a deep understanding of the region's diverse communities, are fluent in Arabic, and boast a rich history of involvement in regional affairs. Additionally, your forthcoming novel focusing on the plight of the Kurdish people adds significant depth to your insights. How can we integrate the sensitivities, perceptions, and concerns of ordinary citizens into the political analysis to shape the region's future? This is crucial given that they are the primary stakeholders impacted by the region's conflicts, and simultaneously represent its most vital resources.
You could argue that many of the conflicts we see are exacerbated by a lack of understanding of the opposing side, including both enemies and allies, and their respective motivations. This lack of understanding often leads to policy mistakes by those in power who struggle to grasp the realities on the ground. The deficiency in knowledge is compounded by the problematic nature of intelligence agencies, which tend to selectively prioritize information for their respective governments and are driven to demonstrate to their superiors that they have acquired specific intelligence. In various environments, including intelligence agencies, echo chambers can lead to significant errors in judgment, exacerbating conflicts. To mitigate this, it is essential to obtain accurate information from the ground.
The International Crisis Group prioritizes engaging not only with the elites but also with ordinary people. While we do not conduct opinion polls ourselves, we rely on reputable polls with sound methodologies and appropriate circumstances. Many opinion polls lack these essential criteria, but we have established methods for evaluating their reliability. Immersing ourselves in the societies we study is crucial, as it prevents us from solely relying on the perspectives of leadership. We engage in dialogue with leaders, often gaining valuable insights into their perspectives. However, there are instances where leadership becomes disconnected from the people, leading to surprise when public unrest unfolds.
It's crucial to grasp a comprehensive, holistic understanding of societal mechanisms as a means of conflict prevention. Currently, our contributions are modest, and there's a pressing need for greater efforts to foster improved comprehension. Local individuals who can effectively convey cultural and political intricacies play a pivotal role in preventing conflicts by offering insights into what drives societies, both internally and to the outside world.
The original version of the interview appeared in the 36th issue of Trending Events magazine, Winter-Spring 2024.
