Many Asian countries with major and emerging economies have witnessed remarkable economic growth over the past decades. This progress has not been limited to rapid growth rates and expanding financial markets; it has also encompassed the development of infrastructure, the enhancement of innovation, the improvement of the business environment, and the adoption of more open and flexible policies to attract migrants. These measures aim to address demographic challenges and meet the need for larger workforces to keep up with economic transformation and development. As a result, these countries have seen a significant shift in their position within global migration trends, leading to speculation that Asia could, within a few years, replace traditional major destinations for migrants, such as Europe and the United States.
Migration to and from Asia
Over the past two decades, the number of international migrants in Asia has steadily increased. According to estimates by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in 2020, Asia hosts one-third of the world’s international migrants, totaling approximately 86 million international migrants.
Internal migration within Asia accounts for more than two-thirds of these estimates, approximately 69 million migrants, marking a significant 93% increase compared to the past twenty years. As for international migrants (non-Asians) residing in Asia, their numbers remain relatively low, with most originating from Europe or Africa.
Driving Transformations
The steady increase in the number of international migrants in Asia, particularly internal Asian migrants, is driven by a complex and interconnected set of regional economic, social, and environmental transformations. These can be outlined as follows:
1. Economic and social factors:
A. Income disparities among Asian countries:
Economic and social factors continue to be the primary drivers of migration to and within Asia, especially for unskilled Asian labor. In efforts to alleviate poverty, seek better livelihoods, access higher quality education, and improve income levels, migrants from Asian countries with lower levels of development and income (such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, Cambodia, Nepal, India, Pakistan, etc.) pursue internal migration to higher-income Asian countries with decent levels of social development (such as the Gulf Arab countries, Japan, Singapore, etc.).
B. Economic and developmental transformations and the need for labor:
During the 1970s and 1980s, the growth of East Asian economies relied heavily on labor-intensive manufacturing, necessitating the recruitment of foreign workers—a trend that continues today in Asian countries experiencing economic and developmental transformations, such as Malaysia and Thailand, particularly in sectors like construction, manufacturing, services, and agriculture. Additionally, significant technological advancements in countries like Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, China, and others have attracted entrepreneurs (both within and outside Asia) to migrate and invest in various sectors.
C. Demographic changes and labor shortages:
Many Asian countries are facing the issue of an aging population due to gradually declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. Estimates suggest that the number of people over the age of 65 in the region will reach 1.3 billion by 2050. In countries like Japan and South Korea, around 40% of the population will be over the age of 65 by 2050. Other Asian nations, such as China, Singapore, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, are also on the path to experiencing rapidly accelerating aging rates.
As a result, many Asian countries are experiencing labor shortages, albeit to varying degrees, prompting them to adopt more flexible policies toward migrants to bridge the demographic gap that could negatively impact economic progress and development. This relationship between migrant intake and development continues to drive waves of internal migration across Asia, from low-income countries with abundant labor to high-income countries with limited labor availability.
Asian countries generally fall into three main categories: (1) low-income countries with abundant labor, such as Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Nepal; (2) high-income countries with limited labor, such as Japan, South Korea, and Singapore; and (3) countries that have achieved rapid increases in per capita income and are beginning to face aging populations but do not yet suffer from severe labor shortages, such as Indonesia and the Philippines.
Examining these three categories reveals a strong balance between the needs of countries facing aging populations and the desire of migrants from low-income nations to seek better job opportunities and living standards. As previously mentioned, this balance explains the steady increase in internal migration waves within the continent.
2. Environmental factors:
Natural disasters are among the leading causes of displacement in Asia. In 2022, Pakistan, which experienced severe and widespread flooding, recorded the highest number of displacements due to natural disasters globally, with more than 8 million displaced people. The second-highest number of displacements in the region occurred in the Philippines (nearly 5.5 million displaced), largely due to Tropical Storm Nalgae, followed by China, with over 3.6 million displaced.
Overall, Southeast Asia is one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world, experiencing millions of displacements annually. Most of its countries are located along the typhoon belt or the Pacific Ring of Fire, exposing residents to floods, storms, tsunamis, earthquakes, and other natural calamities. South Asia has also witnessed devastating disasters in recent years, some linked to climate change, such as heatwaves, increasing droughts, and floods.
Similarly, parts of East Asia are hotspots for natural disasters, including floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, typhoons, and volcanic eruptions. In Central Asia, climate change—often closely tied to regional conflicts—continues to threaten the lives of citizens, driving waves of migrants and displaced persons.
3. Political and security factors:
Political instability and conflicts are additional factors driving the flow of refugees and displaced persons. For example, due to the unstable political situation and fears of continued Taliban rule in Afghanistan, millions of Afghans have been internally displaced or have fled to neighboring countries such as Pakistan and Iran in recent years.
In the context of Israel’s war on Gaza Strip and rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, the region is experiencing successive waves of displacement. Yemen also remains an important transit point, particularly for migrants from the Horn of Africa heading to neighboring Gulf Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and Oman, seeking refuge from persecution, insecurity, and conflicts.
Furthermore, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the associated military conscription in 2022 led to the movement of thousands of Russians into Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.
Forecasting Migration Trends: (The Balance Between Push and Pull Factors)
Given the nature of the economic, social, environmental, and political transformations driving migration to and within Asia, it is reasonable to assert that the continent will remain at the center of successive waves of international migration, particularly internal migration, as well as displacement over the next decade. The following characteristics are likely to persist:
1. Continued openness in immigration policies:
East Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea are expected to continue adopting more open and flexible immigration policies to attract labor and address demographic crises amid declining fertility rates and an aging population.
2. Asia as an attractive destination for migrants:
As economic and developmental transformations occur in many Asian countries, abundant job opportunities, improved income and living standards, and access to quality education will make the region a magnet for migrants.
3. Climate change as a driving force:
Climate change will play a pivotal role in prompting further waves of displaced individuals and refugees across Asia. Political instability and conflicts are also likely to contribute to this trend, albeit to a lesser extent.
Is Asia Replacing Europe?
The current situation raises the question of whether Asia could replace Europe and the United States as the preferred destination for migrants in the coming years. The answer can be outlined as follows:
To address this question, it is important to differentiate between Asian and non-Asian international migrants. Asia will likely remain an attractive destination for Asian international migrants due to the strong balance between the strengths and needs of these countries. This dynamic has created a complex interdependence, suggesting that internal migration within Asia will continue to be a defining characteristic of migration patterns in the region for at least the next decade.
For non-Asian international migrants, the situation is more complex. Several challenges hinder or prevent non-Asian migrants from viewing Asia as a viable destination. Key among these are cultural and social dynamics, particularly language barriers, which drive Asian countries to rely more heavily on Asian migrants. Additionally, political, legal, and administrative complexities related to obtaining visas or work and residency permits remain significant hurdles.
Although some Asian countries are offering excellent economic opportunities, finding a job with a suitable wage that matches the cost of living is also no easy task. The list of challenges continues.
Overall, these factors lead to the conclusion that it is unlikely Asia will replace other destinations such as Europe and the United States, in terms of receiving non-Asian international migrants—unless Asian countries with advanced economies or those undergoing economic and developmental transitions adopt migration and integration policies capable of overcoming these social, legal, and economic complexities. This process would take considerable time and require genuine political will to initiate.
