The outlines of the Sino-Indian rivalry in the bay of Bengal

The Bay of Bengal, a significant part of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, is gaining increasing importance due to the growing interest of its neighboring countries. This heightened attention is further amplified by India's expanding strategic interests beyond its traditional concerns in South Asia, as well as China's growing focus on the Indo-Pacific region.

Bordered by six countries – Thailand, Indonesia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, India, and Bangladesh – the Bay of Bengal represents a naturally prosperous economic space. India, the world's most populous country, and Bangladesh, the eighth most populous, contribute significantly to the region's demographic and economic significance. This unique geographical configuration effectively connects South Asia and Southeast Asia into a single, interconnected entity.

Geographically, the Bay of Bengal holds strategic importance by providing access to major sea routes. It serves as a gateway to the Strait of Malacca, which in turn opens onto the South China Sea.

A Growing Importance

The Bay of Bengal region's increasing significance can be attributed to the following factors:

1- Geopolitical importance:

The region's prominence stems from its crucial sea routes, which serve as "strategic highways" for international trade. These routes connect the Middle East, Southeast Asia, East Asia, Europe, and the Americas, playing a vital role in global economic security. Strategic competitions in the area revolve around maintaining military and strategic dominance near critical chokepoints along these international sea lanes. Nations strive to protect their own freedom of navigation while potentially denying it to others. Additionally, the vast hydrocarbon resources in the region further enhance its importance. For India, the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal are of paramount strategic value. Approximately 80% of India's crude oil imports and 95% of its trade are transported by sea, significantly amplifying the importance of the adjacent Bay of Bengal region.

2- Indian concerns about potential Chinese dominance:

The expansion of Chinese influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has compelled New Delhi to take the threat of "Chinese encirclement of India" seriously. Five of India's six neighboring countries in South Asia have joined the BRI: Bangladesh, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. All of these nations, except Nepal, have coastlines along the Indian Ocean, with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka bordering the Bay of Bengal. Beijing has invested heavily in infrastructure projects and sought to utilize ports in Bangladesh, the Maldives, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. While China maintains that these ports are for commercial purposes, their potential military use remains a constant concern for New Delhi.

Strategic Shifts

Over the past two decades, the geo-political landscape of the Indian Ocean has undergone a profound transformation. China has strengthened its influence in East Asia, while India has emerged as a dominant naval power in the Indian Ocean. Concurrently, in an effort to contain India, China has invested billions of dollars in South Asian countries, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar. This strategic maneuver, coupled with China's military presence in the South China Sea, has made the Bay of Bengal a focal point for Washington's ambitions to assert dominance in the Indo-Pacific region. The following key points can be noted in this regard:

1- India's desire to counter Chinese influence:

India seeks to strengthen its presence in the Bay of Bengal not only to enhance regional development but also to counter China's efforts to increase its influence in India's backyard. Additionally, the countries in the Bay of Bengal region have recognized that connectivity and trade have become crucial drivers of development. This realization has spurred regional powers to compete for influence in these countries, as evidenced by the substantial investments in port and energy infrastructure by China, India, and Western countries.

2- Sino-Indian competition for ports:

Both China and India have intensified their competition for infrastructure and ports in the Bay of Bengal countries. This rivalry spans from the construction of the first deep-water port in Bangladesh at Matarbari in the upper part of the bay to the massive expansion of the Colombo port in Sri Lanka, which lies on major ocean shipping routes. While China is developing one part of the Colombo port, India's Adani Group is developing another. Simultaneously, India is spearheading an effort to revive the BIMSTEC group (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation). China's participation in the construction of the Kyaukpyu port in Myanmar has challenged the previously unchallenged dominance of the Indian Navy in the Bay of Bengal. This development has raised concerns in New Delhi about the potential militarization of the Gwadar port in Pakistan, which China is heavily investing in. In response, India has signed a contract with Iran to manage and develop the Iranian Chabahar port, which directly competes with the Pakistani Gwadar port—a move that has alarmed both Pakistan and China.

3- Indo-US cooperation to contain Chinese influence:

Washington's Indo-Pacific strategy marks the beginning of a US-led alliance aimed at containing China's expanding influence. Meanwhile, China's strategic infrastructure projects, including seaports such as Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, and Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, form part of its "String of Pearls" strategy. This initiative aims to contain India and secure a strategic advantage in the Indo-Pacific region. China's diplomatic relations with North Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Bangladesh, and Myanmar have successfully balanced US and Indian geostrategic maneuvers.

Sino-Indian Rivalry

The Bay of Bengal holds significant strategic importance due to its geographic proximity, security implications, and commercial potential. India considers the bay its backyard and aims to regain the trust of smaller coastal states by supporting countries like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. This support extends to protecting their waters and boosting economic growth. Furthermore, to maintain its role as a regional security provider, India must establish a stronger presence in the Western Indian Ocean region. While China faces a geographic disadvantage due to its more distant location, it actively seeks to increase its presence in the area.

1- New Delhi's efforts to bridge the naval gap with China:

India is working diligently to narrow the considerable gap between its naval capabilities and those of China. New Delhi has significantly boosted its naval budget, with the largest increase in the overall defense budget for 2023 allocated to the navy. This funding aims to modernize warships, strengthen the fleet, and integrate new technologies. Additionally, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs approved a proposal by India Ports Global to manage operations at the Sittwe port in Myanmar, which was built with New Delhi's assistance.

To demonstrate its deep friendship with Sri Lanka, India provided more than $4 billion in aid when the country faced an economic crisis in 2022. Furthermore, in 2023, India's Adani Group joined a consortium working to expand the Western Container Terminal at the Colombo deep-water port, financed by a $550 million loan from the US International Development Finance Corporation.

2- Bay of Bengal countries benefiting from Sino-Indian rivalry:

The countries in the Bay of Bengal region are leveraging their growing importance and the Sino-Indian rivalry to their advantage. Bangladesh, for example, has maintained a balanced foreign policy with India, China, and the United States. However, over the past decade, large Chinese investments in billion-dollar projects have aligned with the development agendas of the isolated Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. This has alarmed US policymakers, who have noted China's enormous influence over Bangladesh. Moreover, Sheikh Hasina's proposal for China to build a deep-sea port in Sonadia raised suspicions from India, Japan, and Pakistan.

Despite Beijing's claims that its presence in the Bay of Bengal is solely for commercial reasons, its actions have a clear security component. While China invests in economic infrastructure in the Bay of Bengal countries, it simultaneously strengthens military ties with them. China has bolstered security relationships with Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, becoming the primary arms supplier to all three nations. In comparison, the Bay of Bengal countries' trade with the rest of the world remains limited, despite their proximity to one of the world's busiest shipping routes. This makes them an ideal location for investments, particularly in ports and vital sectors.

Delayed Conflicts

The outlines of the Sino-Indian rivalry in the bay of Bengal

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