On September 18, 2023, US President Joe Biden held the first-ever summit of its kind with the leaders of five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan). The summit came on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly's 78th session in New York, within the framework of the Dialogue group (C5+1).
The meeting was attended by Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov, Tajikistan's President Emomali Rakmon, Turkmenistan's President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, and Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. During a speech at the summit, Biden said: “I think this is a historic moment. We're building on years of close cooperation between Central Asia and the United States - a cooperation that is grounded in our shared commitment to sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity.”
Multiple Motives for Competition
The summit cannot be regarded in isolation from the growing competition for influence and hegemony in Central Asia between the United States, China, and Russia. This is mainly due to many economic and geopolitical objectives and concerns, as well as security and military considerations, where each of the three countries seeks to expand its relations with Central Asia to consolidate its position vis-à-vis the others. The following are the most notable of these motives and considerations:
1. Different economic considerations:
Many factors motivate the three countries to develop economic ties with Central Asian countries. The US seeks new energy sources as well as rare minerals abundant in these countries' regions, which are employed in the semiconductor industry. This is in addition to attempting to persuade Central Asian countries to refrain from assisting Russia in circumventing Western economic sanctions imposed on it as a result of its war in Ukraine, by pressuring these countries to adhere to these sanctions rather than assisting their traditional ally.
In turn, China shows great interest in this region given its abundance of energy resources, which Beijing requires for industrial development, as well as the fact that these countries are an important part of China's "Belt and Road" initiative, with the economic corridor between China, Central Asia, and Western Asia passing via the five Central Asian countries.
Russia, for its part, is working to gain from the region's economic advantages, particularly oil and gas. These countries may also constitute a significant alternative source for them to avoid the economic sanctions placed on them as a result of the war in Ukraine.
2. Geopolitical repercussions of the Russian war on Ukraine:
The Russian-Ukrainian war altered several aspects of the geopolitical situation in Central Asia, prompting numerous countries to reassess their diplomatic, economic, and security ties with the region. The US is attempting to achieve a dual purpose by obstructing China's intentions in these nations on the one hand, and isolating Russia from the region on the other, through repeated steps toward rapprochement with Central Asian countries. This is accomplished by taking use of these countries' geographical location and vicinity to both China and Russia in an attempt to besiege and surround them while closely monitoring their internal issues.
China's actions, in turn, seek to fill the void created by Russia's war on Ukraine in the five former Soviet republics. This is in line with Chinese President Xi Jinping's efforts to position himself as a global leader and to expand his country's influence beyond its borders.
Russia intends to try to break out of the international isolation imposed on it as a result of its war on Ukraine by expanding its ties with the Central Asian region, which is a significant sphere of its foreign policy and a historic area of influence.
3. Security and military considerations:
The United States' security and military interest in the Central Asian region stems from the terrorism threat that these countries face, as well as the spread of drug trafficking, organized crime, and human trafficking. Washington is also looking for foreign markets for its arms exports, including the possibility of supplying American weapons to Central Asian countries, as well as the possibility of opening a second front against Russia to divert attention away from its efforts in Ukraine.
One of the major security reasons for China's interest in the Central Asian region comes from Beijing's concerns about the possibility of violence and ethnic tensions spreading from these countries to the Xinjiang region, located in northwestern China, given its sharing borders with Central Asian countries. This is in addition to the growing threat posed by the American presence in Central Asia to China, as exemplified by the US's attempt to use separatism in Tibet and Xinjiang as a justification for interfering in China's internal affairs and destabilizing its security and stability.
Russia perceives its security interests in Central Asia through the lens of national security and geopolitical competition with the West and the US. This is evident from Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's statement on April 28, 2023, that Moscow is enhancing the combat readiness of its military bases in Central Asia to counter what he called Washington's and its allies' efforts to strengthen their military presence in the region.
Competition Paths
Based on the preceding motives and considerations, the US, China, and Russia moved to strengthen their positions within the framework of their ongoing competition for influence in the Central Asian region, via a variety of political, economic, and military responses, as follows:
1. Policy responses through various mechanisms:
The political responses of the three Central Asian nations seeking for influence and domination differed. The most visible of these are high-level mutual visits between the two sides, as well as hosting presidential summits at the level of leaders and heads of state and agreeing on visions on the core issues of each party.
In wake of Russia's assault on Ukraine, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in late February 2023, with the goal of strengthening his country's influence in Central Asia. Similarly, Chinese President Xi Jinping's trip to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in September 2022, was his first international tour since the Covid-19 outbreak. This is in addition to President Vladimir Putin’s visit to the five Central Asian countries in 2022, for the first time in a long time.
Summit meetings between the leaders of the United States, China, Russia, and Central Asian countries were also important mechanisms that the three countries used as an institutional and political framework to activate their relations with the five countries. On September 19, 2023, the US held the first presidential summit with Central Asian countries in New York under the (C5+1) formula, during which US President Joe Biden emphasized the protection of the five countries' territorial integrity.
China hosted the leaders of Central Asia in the Chinese city of Xi'an in May 2023, in the first collective presidential summit between the two parties since relations were established more than three decades ago. During the summit, China affirmed its support for the region's stability and sovereignty. The Kazakh capital, Astana, also hosted the "Central Asia-Russia" summit in October 2022, which focused on regional security as well as economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. The meeting pledged to address global security concerns, particularly terrorism, extremism, illegal immigration, and drug trafficking.
2. Economic and trade cooperation and joint investments:
There were numerous economic mechanisms through which the three countries responded in order to strengthen their position and influence in Central Asian countries. Following a similar first package announced in September 2022, the United States announced an additional $25 million commitment to help these countries diversify trade routes and create new job opportunities. During the recent summit, Washington and the five countries also agreed to facilitate trade with American companies and private sector investments, as well as hold a dialogue on critical minerals to develop Central Asia's enormous mineral wealth and enhance the security of vital minerals, particularly those needed for the high-tech industry.
In turn, China provides economic and trade support to Central Asian countries through bilateral trade rates between the two parties, as well as investments and development projects. In 2022, the two countries' trade volume reached $70 billion. China also helps these countries' energy sectors by investing in energy transportation networks and pipelines.
The Xi'an Declaration resolved to deepen cooperation in all areas, with transportation, economy, and trade receiving particular emphasis. Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that Beijing would spend 26 billion yuan on implementing the summit's plans, as well as $3.7 billion in financial help and free support to alleviate poverty.
3. Strengthening security and military cooperation:
At the summit, Washington pledged to strengthen cooperation with Central Asia in counter-terrorism, border security, and law enforcement, as well as to increase US security financing in the region. Beginning in 2020, the US funded $90 million in border security, including training and the supply of vehicles and equipment to combat the smuggling of terrorists, drugs, and weapons. This is in addition to efforts to establish a military facility in the region and increase military cooperation with Uzbekistan, including joint military exercises.
In turn, China is striving to expand its security and military ties with Central Asian countries by contributing to the resolution of regional border conflicts. During the Xi'an summit, China's President, Xi Jinping, reaffirmed his country's willingness to support Central Asian countries in developing their defense capabilities, as well as reaffirming his country's position on the need of protecting these countries' sovereignty, security, and independence. Russia, for its part, sought to strengthen security cooperation with the region's countries, signing security and military agreements with them with the goal of restricting the influence of foreign alliances, as well as retaining military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Future Scenarios
The competition for influence and hegemony in the Central Asian region between the United States, China, and Russia has many ramifications, whether at the level of overall developments in the situation in this region or at the level of relations between the three competing countries, with the following possible scenarios:
1. Realistic scenario:
This scenario suggests that China and Russia's influence in Central Asia grows, while America's tumbles. This scenario is supported by the fact that this region, which falls within the important spheres of China and Russia, is regarded as one of the two countries' historic spheres of influence. The assumption of a decrease in American influence, on the other hand, can be explained by the fact that American interest in this region has not been at the forefront of successive American administrations' interests during the last decades. The US also recognizes that these countries' links with Russia and China will not be cut, since the traditional dominance of Moscow and Beijing in Central Asian countries restricts the volume of collaboration between Washington and these countries. Among the evidence that support the expectation of a decline in Washington's influence in the region is the ineffectiveness of the American strategy in the region, the orientations of the ruling elites in Central Asia, which are approaching the model of governance in Russia and China, as well as the continuation of the Ukrainian war.
2. Scenario of strategic independence:
This scenario implies that Central Asian countries pursue an independent foreign policy based on balanced relations with the US, China, and Russia in order to achieve their national interests. This means that they maintain the same distance from the three countries and do not support one over the other. The recent tendency of Central Asian countries toward building effective diplomatic connections with several important international powers and economic blocs, such as the European Union, Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Germany, and others, supports the occurrence of this scenario. However, there are many factors that may hinder the fulfillment of such a scenario, including these countries' strong links with China and Russia, which may cause them to side with one or both of them in their foreign affairs rather than the United States.
3. Pessimistic scenario:
This scenario claims that the Central Asian region is vulnerable to insecurity and instability as a result of the three countries striving for influence and hegemony in the region, as well as their continuous competition over the region's resources. The fact that the region itself faces numerous security issues adds to the likelihood of such a scenario occurring.
4. Scenario of a diminished Chinese influence:
This scenario anticipates a decrease in Chinese influence in the Central Asian region in future years. Among the factors influencing the occurrence of this scenario is the possibility of an outbreak of internal unrest in Central Asia, which could lead to a change in the political elites in these countries, further obstructing the implementation of long-term agreements with China, as well as some international reports warning countries in the region of the consequences of increasing Chinese loans.
The growing geostrategic importance of the Central Asian region in recent years, particularly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has prompted many major international powers, particularly the United States, China, and Russia, to compete for greater influence and dominance in the region. Many economic, geopolitical, security, and military reasons drive this, as do diverse economic, political, and military reactions and processes. This is a competition that presents many future scenarios, one of which is the increasing influence of China and Russia in exchange for the decline of US influence, not to mention Central Asian’s tendency to achieving strategic independence in their relations with the three major powers competing for influence.
