Nicolás Maduro's administration in Venezuela faces a significant challenge as regional and international pressure mounts to revoke the results of the recent elections. The electoral council declared Maduro the winner with 51%, yet this outcome is now under intense scrutiny. This scrutiny intensified after the opposition successfully published nearly 80% of the vote tabulation sheets, which indicate a victory for opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia. Despite this compelling evidence, Maduro continues to assert his claim to power, relying heavily on his control over the country's security apparatus to enforce the announced results.
Rapid Developments
Following the conclusion of Venezuela's presidential elections in late August 2024, the country's political landscape has experienced significant upheaval. These developments can be summarized as follows:
1- Questioning the election results:
The National Electoral Council in Venezuela, largely composed of ruling party supporters, announced Nicolás Maduro's victory with 51.95% of the vote, while his primary challenger, Edmundo Gonzalez, secured 43.18%. However, unlike previous presidential elections, the council failed to provide detailed data supporting these results, leading the opposition to categorically reject them.
In a bold counter-move, the opposition published on its website the results from 81.7% of verified polling station sheets. These figures painted a starkly different picture, showing their candidate winning 67% of the vote compared to Maduro's 30%. This glaring discrepancy fueled widespread international skepticism about the election's legitimacy.
Consequently, the United States and ten Latin American countries—Argentina, Costa Rica, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, the Dominican Republic, and Uruguay—issued a joint statement. In this declaration, they questioned the transparency and integrity of the elections, refusing to recognize the Venezuelan Supreme Court's ratification of President Maduro's re-election.
In response, Venezuela retaliated by withdrawing its diplomatic representatives from these countries. Furthermore, it revoked Brazil's mandate to represent Buenos Aires' interests in Venezuela, a responsibility that had been granted following the expulsion of Argentine diplomats.
The European bloc also voiced its rejection of the election results. The European Union unequivocally declared that the National Electoral Council's announced results "cannot be recognized," though it stopped short of endorsing opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia's victory claim.
Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares called for "full transparency," urging the publication of results from each polling station individually to allow for thorough verification. His Italian counterpart, Antonio Tajani, expressed "surprise" at the seemingly smooth conduct of the elections, echoing the call for result verification and comprehensive document review.
2- Escalation of internal violence:
The crisis in Venezuela entered a new, more volatile phase as popular protests swept across the country. These demonstrations, marred by violence and clashes between protesters and security forces, resulted in at least 20 fatalities and approximately 1,200 arrests. In the midst of this turmoil, the Venezuelan judiciary escalated tensions by issuing an arrest warrant for former presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez. This action, part of a criminal investigation related to the disputed election results, saw Gonzalez facing accusations of several crimes, including conspiracy and document forgery.
The mounting legal pressure ultimately forced Edmundo Gonzalez to leave Venezuela. Seeking refuge from the political storm, he was granted political asylum in Spain, departing with permission from Venezuelan authorities despite the ongoing investigation.
Multiple Scenarios
Gonzalez's refuge in Spain has created new scenarios in Venezuela, with the most prominent being Maduro's likely retention of power:
1- Maduro's retention of power: Most analyses indicate that Maduro will be able to retain power and will not step down under any pressure. This assessment is justified by several factors, including:
a. Washington's hesitation to take radical action against Maduro:
The Biden administration appears reluctant to pursue a "maximum pressure" policy similar to that adopted by Trump in 2019. This approach, which failed to remove Maduro and did not recognize opposition leader Juan Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela, is seen as counterproductive. The United States seemingly believes that adopting a maximum pressure policy would currently push Maduro closer to its geopolitical rivals, primarily China and Russia, who recognized him as the winner of the elections.
The upcoming US presidential elections in November 2024 are believed to have prompted Washington to adopt a more conciliatory approach towards Maduro. This shift in strategy is expected to contribute to strengthening his grip on power.
Although the Biden administration reimposed broad-based oil sanctions on Caracas in April 2024 after Maduro failed to fulfill his promises to hold free and fair elections, the exemptions granted to individual oil companies - especially Chevron - have helped increase Venezuelan oil production significantly. It is unlikely that this policy will be reversed, as the United States aims to avoid any actions that could lead to an increase in fuel prices before their own elections.
Further complicating the situation, the Biden administration has reportedly been exploring secret talks to grant a pardon to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his top aides, who face charges from the Department of Justice. This potential pardon would be conditional on their entering into talks to guide a transition phase. A source familiar with the Biden administration's deliberations indicated that the United States has put "everything on the table" to persuade Maduro to leave before the end of his term and the start of a new term in January 2025, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
b. Failure of regional efforts:
Some attribute Maduro's continued grip on power to the ineffectiveness of regional initiatives by the United States' Latin American partners in promoting democratic openness in Venezuela. The tripartite initiative, initially launched by Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia, faltered when Mexico withdrew in protest against Washington's stance—a move Mexican President Manuel López Obrador deemed "reckless." Subsequently, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro retreated from their insistence on verifiable electoral data.
In response to this setback, Lula and Petro pivoted to proposing individual solutions to the crisis, ranging from fresh elections to power-sharing arrangements. However, these proposals were summarily rejected by both the opposition and the government. Despite their clear stance against legitimizing Maduro's power grab, neither Brazil nor Colombia has indicated any intention to sever diplomatic ties with Venezuela or join an international sanctions campaign against the regime.
c. The role of Venezuelan security force leaders:
Some analysts argue that the combined efforts of the opposition and international pressure may not yet be sufficient to compel Maduro to negotiate his exit or agree to power-sharing arrangements. This resilience is largely attributed to the unwavering support Maduro enjoys from the leaders of Venezuela's security forces. Maduro maintains a firm grip on the armed forces, military police, paramilitary groups, and various intelligence agencies.
Notably, the generals control crucial sectors of the country's economy—particularly the oil industry, which is Venezuela's economic lifeblood—giving them little incentive to facilitate a transfer of power. In essence, there are currently no indications that Maduro will be unable to weather another period of domestic opposition or withstand the relatively mild international rebuke he faces.
2- Increasing pressure on Maduro's regime: Increasing Pressure on Maduro's Regime: Some estimates suggest that Maduro's government will face immense pressure that could force him to step down or call for new elections. This potential outcome can be attributed to the following factors:
a. Tighter sanctions:
b. Utilizing González to lead diplomatic efforts from Abroad:
While González's decision to seek refuge in Spain might initially appear as a retreat, some experts assert that it could be a strategic move to intensify pressure on Maduro. As an experienced diplomat with support from several countries and a strong popular base, González's position in Spain could prove advantageous. Being beyond the reach of Venezuelan government security agencies, he could potentially lead efforts aimed at removing Maduro from power.
3- A negotiated peaceful transition:
Some estimates suggest that Maduro's regime could internally collapse due to waning confidence and certain figures' desire to protect their economic interests. These actors might align with the opposition and international community to orchestrate a peaceful transition, safeguarding their interests and seeking immunity from international organizations. Consequently, Maduro may negotiate a mutually agreeable solution with the opposition, allowing him to enter exile with specific guarantees. Alternatively, if overthrown, he could seek refuge in allied countries such as Mexico, Cuba, or Russia, as the end of his government might lead to trials for human rights abuses and corruption.
Another scenario, albeit considered unlikely, proposes the possibility of negotiating an agreed-upon exit that permits Maduro to retain some political influence. However, the most probable outcome is that Maduro will successfully cling to power, potentially engaging in largely symbolic negotiations with opposition figures to buy time. He may exploit the international community's preoccupation with other conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to his advantage.
The intensifying polarization and the inability to reach a settlement between the opposition and the government could result in a protracted breakdown of the dialogue necessary to address Venezuela's political, economic, and social challenges.
