It may be difficult to separate the escalating military conflict in the city of Deir ez-Zor between the Syrian military and ISIS from the recent field developments in both Syria and Iraq. The escalation, beginning January 14th 2017, coincided with efforts by Russia and Turkey, in coordination with Iran, to increase the chances of holding negotiations in Astana between the Syrian regime and opposition. The talks are scheduled to take place on January 23rd. The situation in Deir ez-Zor also coincides with the continued military operations by the Iraqi forces, with the assistance of the international coalition, against ISIS positions in the city of Mosul.
Though the Islamic State managed to take control of about 60% of Deir ez-Zor after laying siege to it for two years, its ability to hold on to conquered territory faces numerous obstacles. This is especially true in light of the new steps enemies of ISIS are taking against it, such as the landing of coalition forces into the city, an operation which preceded the Islamic State’s current escalation.
Numerous Goals:
The Islamic State succeeded in attaining significant gains in Deir ez-Zor. This became obvious after it cut the supply lines for Syrian regime forces stationed at the military airport, from the areas of the city under regime control. This is the most important action taken by ISIS in about a year, and it might be said that the terrorist organization seeks, through its escalation in Deir ez-Zor, to attain a number of goals which can be summarized as follows:
1-Gradual control of the city: ISIS is currently attempting to split Deir ez-Zor in half. One half contains the airport and the neighborhood of Harabesh and the village of al-Jaffrah. The other contains the 137th Mechanized Brigade and the al-Panorama Roundabout. The aim of this division is to gradually attain control of the city and force the regime to retreat, before finally evicting it completely. This is pertinent given the regime forces’ lack of adequate air supply necessary to engage the Islamic State within the city.
2-Ending military exhaustion: The leadership of ISIS sees that the group’s inability to control the city in previous phases of the conflict led to the depletion of its forces in battles of secondary importance. This has driven ISIS to insist on halting the bloodshed among their ranks by taking full control of the entire city, in order to concentrate on more significant battles, whether in Iraqi Mosul in which ISIS is gradually retreating, or al-Raqqah in Syria, which constitutes the ‘final battle’ for ISIS.
3-Securing a strategic passageway connecting areas under ISIS control in Iraq and Syria: The Islamic State seeks to find new sources of finance for its operations. Deir ez-Zor contains some oil fields, which explains why ISIS refers to it as the “good province”. In light of the international military assault on ISIS, there are many indicators that the organization is utilizing the city as a refuge of sorts. Deir ez-Zor is not simply an easily controllable area due to the Islamic State’s two year siege, it also provides important strategic depth to help ISIS maintain control over the areas it rules in both Iraq and Syria.
4-Preparing for the post-Mosul stage: The Islamic State appears to recognize the difficulty in maintaining its control of Mosul, which appears in turn to have persuaded it to reduce its activities and operations in areas near the Syria-Iraq border. This adds more significance to Deir ez-Zor, which might transform, in the Islamic State’s eyes, into a zone from which ISIS can provide logistical support to its Iraqi forces in their armed confrontations with the police and military.
5-Containing psychological ramifications: ISIS is attempting to send a message to its followers that it is capable of controlling different strategically important areas. This is to absorb and contain what can be termed the “negative psychological ramifications” of its withdrawal from some of the major areas in Iraq, given that Iraqi forces are now on the cusp of retaking all of Mosul.
Connected Developments:
The Islamic State at present appears to intend to capitalize on the Syrian regime being distracted in its escalating military conflict with the opposition in the Barada Valley area. This conflict is of particular significance to the Syrian regime, as Damascus depends on this area for securing its water resources. ISIS hopes to take advantage of the situation to tighten and extend its grip on Deir ez-Zour and gain many strategic advantages.
It also appears that ISIS is attempting to preempt whatever outcomes the Astana negotiations might produce on January 23rd 2017, which will be followed up by negotiations in Geneva on February 8th. ISIS seeks to impose a new reality on the ground before the negotiations produce outcomes what will place it under severe pressure, especially with regards to escalating military operations against it. Even the ceasefire agreement that came into effect on December 30th 2016 specified that ISIS and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham do not come under its terms, allowing for continued and escalating military operations against the two groups.
Numerous Obstacles:
The capacity of the Islamic State to maintain control over the areas it occupies in Deir ez-Zour faces numerous obstacles. The most pertinent of these is that the international coalition has recently begun carrying out effective targeted operations against ISIS and its followers, such as the landing operations on January 8th 2017, the second of its kind in the last 2 years. By some estimates, the operation resulted in the killing of 25 ISIS militants.
Furthermore, the success of the upcoming negotiations may help create an international consensus, especially between Russia and the United States after Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration on January 20th 2017. Such a consensus may pertain to launching a new phase of the war against ISIS, especially in al-Raqqah which is the group’s main stronghold in Syria. This is highly relevant given that the Trump administration has sought to prioritize the war on terrorism in the coming period.
In light of this, it may be concluded that the success of ISIS in opening a new front in Deir ez-Zour will be temporary, given the context of the recently increasing understanding between Turkey and Russia, or Russia and the United States. In addition, the results of the upcoming negotiations in Astana and Geneva will likely have direct ramifications on the war against ISIS in both Iraq and Syria, which does not bode well for the future of the terrorist organization.
