Pre-empting a Dangerous Status Quo

03 July 2024


The Gaza crisis has dragged on bloodily and devastatingly for over nine months. Intensive efforts have been made to reach an agreement on a three-phased sustained ceasefire, a gradual exchange of hostages and prisoners, and the provision of substantial increases in humanitarian assistance and rehabilitation.

Importantly, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 2735. The resolution is not perfect, particularly due to its occasional use of inconclusive and open-to-interpretation phrases and the absence of strong linkages between different phases. Additionally, there is no accountability for the destruction witnessed or for the subsequent failure to fulfill obligations stated in the resolution. This is particularly concerning given that the American Permanent Representative to the United Nations, during a previous UNSC session on Gaza (from which the United States abstained), bizarrely and brazenly emphasized that the resolution was not binding.

Linking Crisis Resolution to Core Issues

Skepticism is high that any steps agreed upon pursuant to the peace proposal will ever be faithfully implemented. I am among the skeptics and share many of their concerns. I have also reiterated in my writings here that linking the resolution of the crisis to addressing the core issue of Israeli occupation is the only way to end the cycle of violence. Nevertheless, if complemented, I believe UNSC resolution 2735 can serve a useful purpose. What I find important in phases 1 and 2 are the calls for an "immediate, full, and complete ceasefire," as well as for "a permanent end to hostilities" and "full withdrawal of Israeli forces," although this is caveated by inconclusive phrases like "upon agreement of the parties."

Ensuring No Demographic or Territorial Changes in Gaza 

Equally important, and often overlooked, is that the resolution affirms the UNSC's steadfast rejection of any attempts at demographic or territorial changes in the Gaza Strip, including actions that reduce its territory. These demographic and territorial affirmations are crucial, especially given Israel's illegitimate creation of security zones within Gaza's perimeters, its control of the Philadelphia corridor, and the establishment of security corridors dissecting the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, significantly consequential is the Security Council's reiterated commitment in this resolution to the vision of a two-state solution, where democratic states, Israel and Palestine, live side by side in peace within secure and recognized borders.

The Role of the International Community 

The international community and the Arab world are well aware and must remember that the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories has persisted as an extended status quo for nearly eight decades, particularly since 1967. Unattended extended status quos often evolve into de facto realities. This has been a painful experience in the Middle East. While military and humanitarian concerns are urgent and paramount, it is crucial to ensure that the Gaza crisis does not transform into another de facto permanent status quo, whether violent or otherwise.

I am seriously concerned that we are heading in a very dangerous direction. Israel is acquiring territory by force and drawing clear operative distinctions between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, which together continuously constitute the Palestinian State. This situation could become the emerging status quo and possibly an extended reality, even if an agreement is reached between Hamas and Israel.

The political landscapes among Israelis and Palestinians are not conducive to substantial decision-making, especially regarding war and peace. The American presidential election in November 2024 is another limiting factor in strategic, conclusive decision-making, further distorting an already biased perspective. Irresponsible decisions or complacency will have long-term consequences for us all.

Learning from History 

One must always be wary of letting events or pressing circumstances divert attention from core issues. However, it is equally, if not more, erroneous to ignore self-evident or extended illegitimate de facto realities, even if they appear peaceful.

Even if Hamas or Israel agree to the three-phased peace plan, with possible adjustments for clarity, the international community should unwaveringly insist and closely monitor that "no demographic or territorial changes be accepted in Gaza." Additionally, the community should remain steadfast in asserting that "the goal is a two-state solution: Israel and Palestine." Maintaining a clear focus and active oversight on these three points is of paramount importance to prevent a de facto status quo from evolving into an illegitimate reality.

Public Commitments from Israel and Hamas 

It is, therefore, important for Israel and Hamas to publicly commit not only to a two-state solution but also to refrain from any demographic or territorial changes in Gaza. The UNSC, along with United Nations bodies and agencies such as the Economic and Social Council, WHO, WFP, UNRWA, UNHCR, and the special representatives appointed by the Secretary-General, must engage with these issues and provide regular, transparent reports to the Security Council and other relevant entities. These reports should be part and parcel of the review process for implementing the resolution.

Ambiguity and Skepticism 

Hamas has welcomed UNSC 2735, implicitly agreeing to its basic three points. However, further elaboration and clarity on its commitment would be helpful. Israel has been silent on the UNSC resolution, creating further ambiguity regarding its intentions. Consequently, a clear and unambiguous commitment to all these points by Israel is paramount.

It's noteworthy that upon the signing of the Oslo Accords, Yasser Arafat, as head of the PLO, recognized the state of Israel. Therefore, no additional steps from Abu Mazen are required. Israel reciprocated by recognizing the PLO as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinians, thus further affirmations are necessary. The present Israeli government's staunch opposition to a two-state solution should not deter the Security Council, including the United States, from upholding this fundamental issue.

It is imperative that we finally learn the painful lessons of history. Subjugating and occupying other people will generate anger and insecurity that no weapons system can adequately address. Asymmetrical power and unequal rights will heighten conflicts between peoples, extending well beyond the domains of combatants or security forces and threatening civilians and societal well-being.

Furthermore, numerous statements by Israeli officials, as well as actions on the ground, challenge and contradict the vision of a two-state solution. These actions constitute illegitimate de facto territorial and demographic changes prohibited by the Security Council. Such actions cannot and should not be condoned. UNSC Resolution 2735 is not a list of standalone measures to pick and choose from; it is a comprehensive whole to be adopted in its entirety and implemented faithfully in both word and spirit. This encompasses any changes to the Gaza Strip and the overall objectives of Palestinian-Israeli peace.

I hope we have all learned the painful lessons of history and that we finally refrain from allowing the status quo to dictate perilous paths for our future.