During a panel discussion at the "Future Center for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)," His Excellency Nabil Fahmy, the former Egyptian Foreign Minister, addressed the Center's experts and researchers. The discussion focused on the upcoming American elections, scheduled for November 5, 2024, and the potential impact of these elections on Middle Eastern issues.
The Electoral Environment:
In his analysis of the current American electoral environment, His Excellency Nabil Fahmy highlighted several key aspects:
1- Searching for identity: Washington is grappling with fundamental questions regarding its identity and global role. For instance, should the United States intervene in conflicts worldwide, considering the associated benefits and responsibilities? Alternatively, should it limit its involvement to areas of influence and interests, reaping the benefits without shouldering equal responsibilities and costs? Furthermore, there is a debate on whether the United States should treat all sects and ethnicities equally or if certain sects should hold leadership positions and enjoy preferential treatment over others.
2- The predominance of domestic politics: In the United States, foreign policy has traditionally played a secondary role in domestic politics. American citizens are primarily concerned with issues within a 200-mile radius of their own lives, making their focus predominantly internal.
3- The candidates’ position: For the first time, the US presidential elections will be held in about six months. However, at this point, the candidates for the elections are still uncertain. Despite Joe Biden and Donald Trump receiving the nominations of the Democratic and Republican parties, respectively, there are still possibilities open for both candidates. This is due to the problems and challenges each of them is facing.
4- Punitive elections: In these elections, the focus is more on rejecting the other candidate rather than supporting a specific candidate. The main question has shifted from who will win the US presidential elections to who will lose it. This is evident in the similar rates of rejection for both candidates.
5- Biden’s problems: Despite the good performance of the American economy, achieving a growth rate of about 3% and providing many job opportunities, President Biden faces multiple problems. These include concerns related to his advanced age, health, and mental condition. A large percentage of Americans believe that he is unable to complete a new presidential term. This problem is exacerbated by the unattractiveness of Vice President Kamala Harris and her weak popular acceptance. Additionally, some American states with predominantly Arab residents, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, may refrain from voting for the current president due to their dissatisfaction with his position on the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip since October 7, 2023, which negatively affects his electoral chances.
6- Trump’s strength: On the other hand, although Trump essentially represents the upper class in the United States, he possesses several strengths. The most significant of these is his ability to appear as a strong man, which aligns with general American culture. Additionally, his capability to mobilize and speak out for the angry further enhances his electoral chances.
Area Issues:
Regarding the potential American position on the Middle East issues after the upcoming elections, Fahmy distinguishes between four main trends: Biden's position, Trump's position, the Democratic Party's position, and the Republican Party's position. He notes that while there may be differences in the degree of these positions, the substance remains largely the same between the potential candidates and their parties. He adds that Trump seems less willing to interfere in the region's crises compared to President Biden. On the other hand, Biden will be greatly influenced by American concerns regarding Russian proliferation and influence, whether in Africa or elsewhere in the Middle East.
Fahmy suggests that Trump's approach is still governed by the concept of "deals," and as such, he may prioritize those who are able to negotiate deals with him. Additionally, Trump may seek to reduce the cost of America's role in the region.
Fahmy conducted a review of the potential impact that the upcoming US elections could have on various regional issues. The issues that were examined include the following:
1- The peace process between Palestine and Israel: Biden prefers a "traditional" peace process without requiring a specific result to be reached. He is concerned with the process itself rather than its results, but he will welcome any results that the regional parties may achieve in this regard. On the other hand, Trump appears to be more interested in achieving results without paying real attention to the peace process itself. This approach makes it difficult since there can be no results without a peace process. In terms of relations with the Palestinian Authority, Biden seems to be more understanding compared to Trump.
2- The Red Sea security: The issue of the Red Sea security has been gaining attention from the United States. This attention is driven by concerns about freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. If Joe Biden wins the presidency, it is expected that this interest will continue to grow. Additionally, American institutions may push for increased attention to this matter if Donald Trump returns to the White House.
3- Iran: The ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran may prove difficult to resolve during an election year. In fact, a short-term reconciliation between the United States and Iran seems unlikely. It is anticipated that President Trump will be less inclined to pursue military action against Iran.
4- Syria: The file on Syria is not a top priority for both Biden and Trump. It is likely that the United States will not take significant actions regarding its position on Syria unless there is full coordination with Israel.
5- Iraq: The United States is currently facing pressures that may require it to reconfigure its presence in Iraq. While the US does not desire a complete withdrawal, it may need to make adjustments to its operations in the country.
6- Libya: Although Libya may not have garnered much interest from either Biden or Trump, the growing Russian presence in the country might make Biden more inclined than Trump to pay attention to developments in the Libyan arena. However, this does not necessarily imply significant American intervention there.
In conclusion, Fahmi emphasized the fluidity of the American situation, highlighting that Washington's position and policies towards the Middle East are still incomplete and subject to change.
