Homeless and Jobless in the Era of AI

Can Technology Replace Humans in the Future?

23 December 2024


The term "artificial intelligence" has generated a great deal of buzz in recent years, leading many to believe that the world has entered an entirely new era, reshaping nearly every aspect of life. Research centers and academic institutions have dedicated new projects and programs to artificial intelligence. Think tanks have released series, journals, and books on the topic, making readers feel as if they might wake up the next day in a completely different world than the one they went to sleep in. Upon waking, they might struggle to recognize their own identity, as artificial intelligence could have redefined it—perhaps through an implanted chip deep within their brain that alters their language or even their skin color by controlling melanin production in their cells.

The future of work and employment stands as one of the pressing concerns people face in this so-called "era of artificial intelligence." Humans naturally gravitate toward new ideas, and many have come to believe that artificial intelligence might replace them in a significant number of jobs we know today. Imagining a distant future where AI could perform everything humans currently do is not far-fetched. Such a belief has become a source of anxiety for many across the globe, raising questions about their professional futures and their ability to secure a livelihood in the years to come. In these circumstances, it is only logical to ask: Do these fears and concerns have legitimate, rational grounds? Could humanity truly face the prospect of becoming homeless and jobless in the age of artificial intelligence?

Not a New Invention

Before delving into the main issue in this analysis, it is essential to address several key points that guide our understanding of artificial intelligence.

Firstly, no standalone entity can definitively be called artificial intelligence, despite numerous attempts to define it. Descriptions range from "the technology that enables computers and machines to simulate human learning, comprehension, problem solving, decision making, creativity and autonomy"[1] to "simulation of human intelligence processes by machines, especially computer systems."[2] Yet, pinpointing the exact nature of artificial intelligence remains challenging.

Therefore, carefully considering what constitutes artificial intelligence is crucial. To simplify the reader's understanding within the context of this analysis, we might define it as "knowledge relinquished by humans and transferred to a machine they invent to assist in performing a specific task." Consequently, if that machine can carry out the task, it is not due to inherent intelligence but because it is equipped with human knowledge. The machine remains, fundamentally, a mute and enigmatic entity.

Secondly, the concept of "artificial intelligence" has a longer history than many might assume, given its current ubiquity. While the term itself was coined in 1956 by Oliver Selfridge and John McCarthy at the Dartmouth College summer conference in the United States,[3] the underlying principles of AI have been present for millennia. In fact, the rudimentary tools invented by our earliest ancestors—used for hunting, woodcutting, and various other tasks—can be considered precursors to what we now call artificial intelligence. These primitive innovations represent the fundamental idea behind AI: the transfer of human knowledge to objects designed to assist in task completion, ultimately saving time and effort while improving and simplifying life.

Humans Left Without Work

The ongoing discussions about the rise of artificial intelligence are fueling fears that we could arrive at work only to discover an AI "entity" has replaced us—suddenly and without warning. While this has become a source of real anxiety for some about their professional futures, the notion leans heavily into unfounded imagination.

If we entertain the idea that artificial intelligence could replace humans in jobs, we find that while it might occur in some roles, it certainly will not happen in all of them. Many jobs will remain the exclusive domain of human capability. Numerous scientific studies support this conclusion, including one conducted by Stanford University to explore the extent to which robots could replace humans in performing tasks and jobs.

The study found that certain jobs are more exposed to artificial intelligence—meaning AI could, to varying degrees, take over these roles. These include positions requiring specific skill sets, such as forklift operators, assembly technicians, painting specialists, and janitors.[4] Notably, these roles share a highly repetitive nature, involving a fixed sequence of actions performed in a consistent order and timeframe.

At the same time, the Stanford study identified certain professions less susceptible to artificial intelligence, including clergy, performing artists, correspondence and request clerks, payroll and timekeeping clerks, and eligibility clerks for government programs. The research also revealed that, assuming historical job displacement trends persist, AI is likely to reduce wage inequality among employees over the long term. However, this effect diminishes in higher-level job categories,[5] indicating tiers where AI cannot compete with humans. Furthermore, the distributive impact on wages resulting from widespread AI adoption will be less pronounced at higher job levels. In these roles, humans will continue to dominate, leveraging their unique expertise and personal skills.

New Jobs Better Suited for Humans

Another perspective on the potential for artificial intelligence to replace humans in the workplace is this: even if AI were to occupy all the jobs we currently know—regardless of their simplicity or complexity, from splitting a piece of wood in half to programming a spacecraft to navigate the farthest reaches of the universe and return safely after completing its mission flawlessly—humans, without a doubt, are capable of creating new roles for themselves.

History provides compelling evidence to support this claim. Consider, for instance, the role of "aircraft listener" before the invention of military radar. These individuals used mirrors and listening devices to detect the sounds of approaching enemy aircraft. While this job disappeared in the early 20th century with the advent of radar, its introduction led to the emergence of multiple new positions, including military radar operators. These teams now range from two to eight members, depending on the type and purpose of the radar.[6]

Notably, these new jobs are not only more numerous than their outdated counterparts but also superior in terms of financial compensation, ease of execution for workers, and efficiency in achieving their intended goals for the military or relevant organizations. This example is just one of thousands that illustrate the potential shifts in the job market during the era of advanced technology, or what some refer to as the "age of artificial intelligence." Furthermore, other examples demonstrate how technological progress can introduce new methods for carrying out economic activities without necessarily eliminating traditional approaches. 

E-commerce serves as an excellent case in point.[7] While revolutionizing trade as a human activity, it has not eradicated traditional commerce, which continues to thrive. In fact, jobs related to traditional trade have been steadily increasing alongside its growth and expansion, as will be demonstrated later. The rise of e-commerce has also created numerous new jobs of a distinct nature, including roles for programmers, e-commerce website designers, database developers, data analysts, electronic payment system designers, e-commerce content creators, product photographers, digital marketing specialists, and delivery personnel. Moreover, industries tied to e-commerce, such as smartphone and computer manufacturing, telecommunications networks, packaging and wrapping production, delivery uniforms, motorcycles, transport vehicles, and fuel-related industries, have all contributed to employment growth.

These new jobs, created by e-commerce, have substantial room for future expansion. As of 2023, e-commerce accounts for only about 19.4% of global retail trade, valued at $5.82 trillion. This figure is expected to grow by approximately 37% by 2027, reaching $7.96 trillion.[8] Importantly, this growth is not coming at the expense of traditional commerce, which is also on the rise. Traditional retail is projected to increase from $24.18 trillion in 2023 to $27.25 trillion in 2027. While the growth rate of traditional commerce (12.7%, roughly one-third of the growth rate of e-commerce) may seem modest, it underscores the reality that the absolute value of traditional commerce continues to expand. Consequently, traditional trade is increasing its employment opportunities even in the era of advanced technology and artificial intelligence, rather than diminishing them.

WEF's  Projections on Job Creation and Technology’s Role

Estimates released by the World Economic Forum in 2023 indicate that sectors utilizing digital technologies—such as e-commerce and digital transformation—are expected to generate approximately 4 million new jobs globally by 2027. A survey conducted among companies in the technology sector reveals that most firms anticipate their technologies will create more jobs than they eliminate over the next five years. These technologies include big data analytics, climate change mitigation technologies, environmental management technologies, encryption technologies, biotechnology, agricultural technologies, platform and app technologies, and healthcare technologies. The survey highlighted only one exception: technologies related to both humanoid and non-humanoid robots.[9]

The survey results unveiled contrasting expectations for the future of work. While 25-50% of companies foresee technology leading to the disappearance of jobs such as bank tellers, postal workers, cashiers, data entry clerks, and other similar roles within the next five years, an equal proportion expects significant growth in roles like AI technology developers, business intelligence analysts, sustainability technology specialists, information security analysts, financial technology engineers, robotics engineers, big data experts, digital transformation specialists, and e-commerce technology professionals. These roles are part of a list of 53 new specialties, underscoring that technology's impact on jobs is far from purely negative.

The conclusions drawn from this analysis refute the idea that the advent of "artificial intelligence" and its widespread use will decimate jobs. On the contrary, AI often generates new types of employment opportunities in greater numbers than the jobs it eliminates. Additionally, while AI might replace humans in certain tasks, it remains an imperfect substitute, particularly regarding reliability and stability. AI is inherently dependent on the availability of communication and internet services, both of which can be disrupted at any moment.

A compelling example of this dependency occurred during the writing of this article. While reading an online piece extolling AI's prowess in performing nearly everything humans can do, and rivalling humans in areas where no other creatures on Earth have ever competed before—including art, photography, music, and literature—an internet outage abruptly rendered the article inaccessible. The "all-powerful" AI capabilities faded into irrelevance within minutes. Traditional methods prevailed, as I resorted to reading printed books, writing on paper, and walking to convey a message to a colleague in person instead of using email.

This real-life scenario vividly illustrates the fragility of the belief in AI as an unstoppable giant poised to dominate and reshape the world. Such lofty notions collapse in the face of a simple disruption, whether caused by a child tampering with an internet receiver or a brief power outage.

Artificial Intelligence: Independent and Creative?

The notion of AI playing no role in human life is far from accurate. AI has long been intertwined with our daily existence and will continue to influence it profoundly. Yet, AI fundamentally lacks a core attribute that sets humans apart: willpower. All of AI's achievements thus far are merely extensions of human intent—humans created AI, define its tasks, and rectify its mistakes when necessary. This reality underscores that AI is simply a tool, employed at human discretion and constrained by the availability of necessary conditions and resources.

AI cannot independently acquire skills; instead, it is humans who program and enable it to perform specific tasks. Despite its advancements, AI will always have limitations compared to humans in certain respects and cannot fully replace them. Unlike AI, the human brain possesses inherent creativity, skills, willpower, and improvisational abilities, generating ideas autonomously without external commands.

Arguments claiming AI can improvise, create, or produce art, music, or literature can be readily challenged as they overlook a fundamental truth: AI's outputs are merely responses to human commands or imitations of human experiences stored in its memory. Even when its memory is vast enough to store an immense array of human experiences, AI merely blends these experiences to produce something seemingly novel. This process mirrors the efforts of a skilled artist combining elements from works by Picasso, Da Vinci, and Van Gogh. While the result might be impressive, it would never be truly original in the way human creations are.

AI has been utilized in artistic domains, with exhibitions showcasing machine-generated art in countries like the UK,[10] the US,[11] and Egypt.[12] Online platforms such as Artguru[13]and Hotpot[14] allow users to generate art within seconds by inputting specific instructions into embedded applications. However, even in such instances, AI merely mimics the processes of the human brain.[15]

Curators of AI-generated art exhibitions emphasize that human intervention is indispensable at all stages—whether providing initial guidance, making adjustments during execution, or refining the final product. They have reached a consensus that artificial intelligence, in all these experiments, mimics the behavior of the human brain in its artistic creations.

To produce the artworks displayed by machines, humans must first provide them with the required input. Additionally, human intervention may be necessary during the execution of the work or after its completion, by making adjustments through reprogramming the machine with new instructions. This process can be observed and confirmed when experimenting with the previously mentioned websites for producing artistic works.

The organizers of these exhibitions agree that utilizing AI can expedite design processes to meet the fast-paced demands of modern markets. However, they assert that the role of human artistry in creating direct art will not diminish; on the contrary, the value of its work will increase. This is due to the significant difference between the emotional depth of an artist and the use of a machine, manifesting in the spirit and struggle that appear in direct artistic creations.[16]

A striking example of this synergy is Turkish artist Refik Anadol's integration of AI into his "living paintings." His exhibition in the United States garnered significant global attention. When asked by the Los Angeles Times, "Do you consider yourself the auteur of the work in 'Living Paintings,' or is it a human-machine collaboration?" Anadol responded:

"It is the second, a human-machine collaboration. Because it's truly using AI as a collaborator. It's kind of like creating a thinking brush. It's actually more work [than not using AI]. Even though AI doesn't forget … to create the story and narrative, still, it's a human intervention."[17]

Anadol's response indicates that despite AI's prominent role in producing this type of artwork—which cannot be created without it—human intervention remains the decisive factor in defining the work's nature, purpose, and final form.

Conclusion

Three key findings emerge from the preceding discussion. Firstly, AI, regardless of its extensive utilization, will never fully replace humans. Secondly, the employment of AI does not negate human involvement; rather, humans remain the operators, directors, and definers of AI tasks, establishing its boundaries and governing standards. Thirdly, and intrinsically linked to the first two points, AI serves as a tool that humans leverage to enhance their lives and simplify their existence.

A fundamental principle warrants consideration here: No entity can create something stronger than itself. Following this logic, AI, as a human invention, cannot surpass human capabilities. To further elucidate: if humans possessed the ability to create something stronger than themselves, wouldn't it be more logical for them to first bestow such strength upon themselves?

The exaggerated narratives surrounding AI's capabilities—be they extraordinary, peculiar, or dystopian—originate not from AI itself but from human imagination. It is this very imagination that conceived AI and continues to envision its possibilities, including its potential to dominate humanity. We are the architects of these ideas, amplifying them and subsequently recoiling in fear of their consequences—particularly when they transcend the boundaries of our imagination.

The reality, however, is more grounded: we introduce these concepts, magnify them, and then grapple with the implications of our own creations—especially when they extend beyond the limits of our initial conceptions.

 

References

[1] IBM, What is Artificial Intelligence (AI)?, https://www.ibm.com/topics/artificial-intelligence, accessed on 04 June 2024.

[2] Nicole Laskowski and Linda Tucci, What is Artificial Intelligence (AI)? Everything You Need to Know, (TechTarget), https://www.techtarget.com/searchenterpriseai/definition/AI-Artificial-Intelligence, accessed on 04 June 2024.

[3] Nicole Laskowski and Linda Tucci, Op.Cit.

[4] Michael Webb, The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Labor Market, (Stanford University, January 2020), p 20, https://web.stanford.edu/~mww/webb_jmp.pdf, accessed on 28 May 2024.

[5] ibid

[6] Hafsa Alami, “Discover Jobs That Disappeared More Than Half a Century Ago,” Al Jazeera Net, September 1, 2019, https://bit.ly/4bWmWsg, accessed May 28, 2024.

Arab Defense News, “Military Radars: History, Principles, and Operation,” November 9, 2019, https://defense-arab.com/news/33398/, accessed May 28, 2024.

[7]Oracle, “What is E-Commerce?” September 1, 2019, https://www.oracle.com/ae-ar/cx/ecommerce/what-is-ecommerce/, accessed May 28, 2024.

Jamal Qasim Hassan and Mahmoud Abdel Salam, E-Commerce, Arab Monetary Fund, Introductory Booklet Series, No. 20, 2021, pp. 8-12.

[8] EMarketer, Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, https://bit.ly/4bNdqYI, accessed on 28 May 2024.

[9] World Economic Forum, Future Of Jobs 2023: Insight Report, (May 2023) p 25.

[10] The National Gallery: NG200, The AI Gallery, https://www.nationalgallery.org.uk/national-gallery-x/the-ai-gallery, accessed on 31 May 2024.

Barbican Immersive, AI: more than human, https://bit.ly/3WYFYKv, accessed on 31 May 2024.

[11] Exquisite Workers, AI Surrealism: The World’s Largest AI Art Exhibition, NYC, 2023, (Medium, 30 May 2023),https://bit.ly/4c1Eza8, accessed on 31 May 2024.

[12] Mai Ibrahim, “An AI Art Exhibition in Egypt,” Independent Arabia, August 20, 2023, https://bit.ly/3Vma35i, accessed May 31, 2024

[13] Artguru, AI Art Generator, https://www.artguru.ai/, accessed on 31 May 2024.

[14] Hotpot, AI Art Generator, https://hotpot.ai/art-generator, accessed on 31 May 2024.

[15] The National Gallery: NG200, Op.Cit.

[16] Mai Ibrahim, “An AI Art Exhibition in Egypt,” Independent Arabia, August 20, 2023, https://bit.ly/3Vma35i, accessed May 31, 2024

[17] Deborah Vankin and Staff Writer, Why Everyone is Talking About Refik Anadol’s AI-Generated ‘Living Paintings’, (Los Angele Times, 18 Feb. 2023), https://bit.ly/3V25vQs, accessed on 31 May 2024.