Generation Z, one of the most numerous and diverse generations in U.S. history, is poised to have a powerful impact on the November 2024 presidential election. This pivotal contest features candidates Kamala Harris from the Democratic Party and Donald Trump from the Republican Party, both vying for the support of this influential demographic.
Representing nearly 20% of the U.S. population, Gen Z includes around 41 million eligible voters. Since the 2022 midterms, an additional 8.3 million young people have joined the voter pool—a significant boost that could shape election outcomes. Born from the mid-1990s onward, this generation grew up in the digital era, immersed in social media and the internet. As a result, Gen Z has emerged as the most tech-savvy and online-engaged generation yet.
The Democratic ticket is led by Vice President Kamala Harris, while the Republican candidate is former President Donald Trump. Both are seeking to connect with this increasingly active voting bloc, recognizing the potential of Gen Z to sway the election results.
Growing Influence
As Generation Z's influence continues to grow, its impact reverberates across multiple dimensions, shaping various aspects of our society. The following key areas highlight the profound effects of this dynamic generation:
1- The most diverse generation:
Generation Z stands out as the most ethnically and racially diverse generation to date, with a significant proportion identifying as members of racial or ethnic minorities. This diversity profoundly influences their political inclinations, particularly towards progressive policies.
Tufts University's research underscores this diversity, revealing that among Generation Z, 55% identify as White, 22% as Latino, 14% as Black, 4% as multiracial, 4% as Asian, and the remaining portion as other ethnicities. Such a varied demographic composition naturally fuels a broad spectrum of political concerns, with particular emphasis on social justice and racial equality.
However, it's crucial to note that Generation Z is far from a monolithic group. Their political behaviors and attitudes vary considerably, shaped by individual values, identities, economic and social backgrounds, and levels of engagement. While many Gen Z members focus on progressive issues such as climate change, social justice, gun control, and reproductive rights, others align with conservative values or embrace liberal ideas.
Despite these differences, a common thread unites Generation Z: a shared frustration with traditional politics. This disillusionment has led many to shift their focus towards grassroots movements outside the conventional electoral system.
2- A significant role in elections:
In the 2022 U.S. general elections, Generation Z's voter turnout reached approximately 28%. However, a Tufts University study projects this figure could surge to 50% in 2024, signaling a potential shift in electoral dynamics. Young women emerged as a particularly influential force in the 2022 elections, with 71% casting their votes for Democrats, while 53% of young men supported Republicans. This stark contrast underscores the growing political clout of young women, who may once again play a pivotal role in shaping election outcomes.
When considering Generation Z alongside Millennials—those born between the early 1980s and mid-1990s—these two cohorts now constitute nearly half (49%) of all voters, representing a formidable electoral bloc. Despite their numerical strength, the level of voter engagement among these generations remains a subject of debate. While the Tufts University study forecasts high turnout, Fortune magazine adopts a more cautious stance. The publication highlights the possibility that a significant portion of Generation Z might abstain from voting, citing a perceived lack of alignment between major political parties and the issues that resonate most with this demographic.
3- Varied levels of political engagement:
Generation Z's political engagement varies significantly, as revealed by recent polling data. A survey published by Statista, a German online platform specializing in data gathering and visualization, in August 2024 shed light on this diversity. Among people aged 18-29, 32% closely follow the election, while 31% are somewhat interested. Conversely, 21% show little interest, and 16% are not interested at all.
Despite these mixed levels of engagement, a study from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) presents a more optimistic picture. It found that more than half of Generation Z (56.4%) remain well-informed about current events. Interestingly, 57% of these informed individuals expressed interest in supporting Kamala Harris. In contrast, among those who do not follow the news regularly, 70% are unsure or undecided about their support.
Social media platforms play a crucial role in shaping Generation Z's political engagement. TikTok, Instagram, and Snapchat serve not only as news sources but also as powerful tools for organizing movements. This dual function is exemplified by campaigns like DoSomething's efforts to increase voter turnout for Kamala Harris in Houston, Texas. Such initiatives underscore the growing importance of social media in reaching and mobilizing Generation Z voters, particularly in swing states.
Key Issues of Concern
Generation Z’s stance on key issues can be summarized as follows:
1- Cost of living: According to a study by U.S. News, 70% of young adults are concerned about inflation and the rising cost of living.
2- Abortion and reproductive health rights: Statistics show that 40% of Generation Z consider access to abortion and reproductive health rights a key issue.
3- Social justice and racial equality: 62% of Generation Z prioritize social justice, focusing on race and community rights as major factors in their political preferences.
4- Gun control: A Pew Research Center study found that 60% of Generation Z favor stricter gun laws, though a more recent U.S. News study in July 2024 showed a decline in concern about firearms, with only 31% expressing significant worry.
5- Climate change: 76% of Generation Z prioritize climate issues and support bold climate policies.
6- Border security and immigration: Only 26% of Generation Z are concerned with border security and immigration, according to U.S. News.
7- Ceasefire in Gaza: 45% of Generation Z express support for a ceasefire and an arms ban on Israel Israel, driven by concerns about human rights violations. A December poll by The New York Times shows that 55% of participants aged 18-29 opposed U.S. aid to Israel, while a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University in November revealed that 52% of voters under 35 sympathized more with Palestinians than with Israel.
Heated Competition
Presidential candidates in the U.S. are actively competing for Generation Z’s support, each with distinct strategies as follows:
1- Donald Trump:
Polls conducted by CNN after the debate with Harris show Trump as the frontrunner on issues like immigration, the economy, and national security. This lead is further reinforced by a Pew Research Center study, which indicates Trump's substantial advantage among White voters, capturing 56% of their support compared to Kamala Harris's 42%.
Despite these strengths, Trump faces challenges with younger voters, particularly Generation Z. His positions on economic deregulation and national security often clash with Gen Z's preferences, which emphasize climate action, social justice, and stricter gun laws. Nonetheless, Trump has demonstrated adaptability in his outreach efforts, skillfully using platforms like TikTok and Instagram to maintain a notable presence among young voters.
However, this digital savvy doesn't necessarily translate to widespread support. Many Gen Z voters, especially those from marginalized communities, find Trump's views on immigration and social issues at odds with their own values. This disconnect is reflected in statistics from Statista, which show Trump lagging significantly among voters aged 18 to 29, with Harris leading 58% to his 27% in this demographic.
Interestingly, Trump's appeal among younger voters has seen a slight boost following an endorsement from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. This endorsement has resulted in 30% of young voters viewing Trump positively. Yet, the impact remains uncertain, as 31% of this demographic remains undecided.
Recent polls by The New York Times and The Washington Post indicate that approximately 25% of Generation Z supports Trump, with this demographic primarily consisting of White males from rural areas. These young supporters are attracted to Trump's emphasis on economic freedom, gun rights, and opposition to political correctness. Within this group, values such as minimal government regulation and economic independence hold significant importance.
Trump's stance on gun rights and economic autonomy particularly resonates with this demographic. Furthermore, his support extends to working-class White youth, especially in rural or economically challenged regions where concerns about job stability and economic growth are paramount. Many in these areas view the economic record of Trump's administration favorably and connect with his "America First" rhetoric.
In addition to rural and working-class support, Trump has gained traction among Gen Z college students through conservative organizations like Young Americans for Freedom (YAF). This popular group has been active on campuses, organizing rallies and conducting voter outreach. YAF played a crucial role in Trump's 2016 campaign by promoting a platform centered on limited government and traditional values, effectively mobilizing young conservatives.
2- Kamala Harris:
This digital savvy has translated into tangible political gains. According to CNN polls from the latest debate, Harris leads on key issues such as defending democracy and abortion rights, which are of particular importance to younger voters. Moreover, her unique position as a potential first female president, coupled with her Indian and African heritage, distinguishes her from her competitors.
Interestingly, a UCLA study revealed that Harris's ethnic and national identity is not the primary driver of her support among Generation Z. Instead, an overwhelming 82.7% of this cohort cited her political stances, "messages of hope," and strong social media presence as the main reasons for their support.
While Harris enjoys strong backing from progressive and left-leaning members of this demographic, particularly those involved in social justice, environmental work, and economic reform, Harris faces competition from candidates like Cornel West and Jill Stein, who also attract voters favoring progressive ideas.
Harris's appeal extends to voters focused on systemic reforms, especially regarding racial and gender inequality. However, her campaign has encountered obstacles in securing endorsements from key activist groups. Since August 7, 2024, movements like Black Lives Matter have withheld their support, citing unresolved racial issues under the current administration and concerns over the growing divide between white and Black communities. Similarly, the Dream Defenders group has yet to endorse Harris.
Despite these challenges, Harris maintains a key advantage among Generation Z voters through her stance on gun control laws. This position resonates strongly with the March for Our Lives movement, led by students who advocate for stricter gun regulations. Additionally, Harris attracts support from young voters who prioritize reproductive health rights, particularly access to abortion.
The Muslim voter base presents another nuanced aspect of Harris's campaign. These voters are divided between supporting Harris and Jill Stein, with the Uncommitted Movement playing a crucial role in this split. While the movement aligns with Stein on many issues, it recognizes her slim chances of winning the election. Consequently, many within this group support Harris, who has repeatedly expressed her commitment to working towards a ceasefire in Gaza. The Uncommitted Movement plans to leverage its influence post-election to push Harris towards stronger policy changes regarding Israel, reflecting a strategy of pragmatic support coupled with ongoing advocacy.
This dynamic with Muslim voters exemplifies the broader challenge Harris faces in uniting Generation Z voters, particularly on complex foreign policy issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
3- Jill Stein (Green Party):
Although most polls published by Statista suggest limited support for Jill Stein and Cornel West among Generation Z through traditional polling methods, Stein has garnered significant attention on social media platforms, particularly TikTok. This online presence has translated into active support from many college students, who not only back Stein but also encourage their peers to vote for her or West.
Stein's platform resonates with key issues that matter to Generation Z, focusing on climate action, universal healthcare, and anti-war policies. Her commitment to radical environmental reform is especially appealing to young voters who feel disillusioned with traditional political parties. While Stein attracts a smaller segment of Generation Z, her supporters are highly enthusiastic, particularly regarding climate justice.
According to Pew Research Center estimates, about 15% of Generation Z voters are open to supporting third-party candidates. This support is notably concentrated in progressive urban areas such as Portland and Seattle, where Green Party supporters are more prevalent.
The Green Party Youth Caucus, serving as the youth wing of the Green Party, plays a crucial role in mobilizing young voters around issues like climate change, healthcare, and social justice. Having participated in previous campaigns for Stein, the group continues to advocate for political alternatives outside the two major parties.
Stein's appeal extends beyond environmental issues, attracting Generation Z voters who passionately advocate for Palestinian rights. Her strong antiwar stance and focus on human rights align with movements such as Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) and Code Pink, an organization dedicated to ending U.S. military intervention. These groups, which include large Jewish and Muslim communities, are likely to rally behind Stein's campaign due to her consistent defense of peace and human rights.
4- Cornel West (Unity Party of America/Independent):
Cornel West's background in social justice movements makes him an appealing candidate for Generation Z voters seeking major political reforms, particularly among politically active and educated groups. His clear antiwar stance, including promises to end the genocide in Gaza and avoid providing military support for Israel, positions him outside the influence of groups like AIPAC (the American Israel Public Affairs Committee).
However, West faces challenges in connecting with younger Generation Z voters, especially those from rural areas and working-class backgrounds. While his platform resonates with politically engaged or educated voters, it may appear too intellectual or disconnected from the reality of some groups within this generation.
Despite these challenges, West receives strong support from Generation Z's politically active left-wing voters, particularly those disillusioned with both major political parties. A Statista poll published on August 26, 2024, illustrates this support: 18% of voters aged 18-29 view West positively or very positively, while 13% view him as somewhat unfavorable and 8% as very unfavorable. Notably, 62% of voters remain unsure or unaware of his positions, suggesting potential for growth in his support base.
West has also garnered significant backing from college students interested in radical systemic reforms. His affiliation with the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement is particularly impactful, given BLM's success in mobilizing young voters through widespread protests and digital campaigns. This support played a crucial role in increasing youth voter turnout for Biden in the 2020 election, especially among those prioritizing racial justice and police accountability.
Furthermore, West's selection of Melina Abdullah, a prominent BLM activist, as his vice presidential candidate could amplify his appeal among socially conscious young voters. This strategic choice may lead to increased backing from BLM members and other activists in the 2024 election.
5- Chase Oliver (Libertarian Party):
Chase Oliver's campaign revolves around a libertarian vision that champions individual freedoms, minimal government oversight, and tax reductions. His stance on social policies, particularly the legalization of drugs, resonates with a distinct segment of Generation Z, especially those who prioritize personal autonomy. This appeal extends to various groups, including some members of the LGBTQ+ community, certain white conservative voters, and others who place a high value on individual rights.
Libertarian candidates have historically attracted a niche following among younger voters, and Oliver's campaign follows this trend. While the majority of Generation Z tends to favor progressive stances, a smaller subset—predominantly young men—finds Oliver's platform compelling. His emphasis on personal freedom and reduced government interference aligns with their belief in self-reliance and limited state control, making his message particularly attractive to this demographic.
In conclusion, as the 2024 election approaches, Generation Z's diverse political leanings are poised to significantly influence the outcome. This generation's primary concerns encompass climate change, social justice, economic opportunity, and reproductive rights, making them a crucial demographic for candidates to engage. While many Gen Z voters lean progressive, they are far from a monolithic group; their support spans a wide range of candidates, from Kamala Harris and Jill Stein to Donald Trump, Chase Oliver, and Cornel West, the latter advocating for political reforms.
Several key factors are likely to shape Gen Z's voting choices this year. Economic challenges and environmental concerns remain at the forefront of their minds. Additionally, the conflict in Gaza has gained particular significance for certain activist movements within this cohort. Access to abortion also stands as a paramount issue for many young voters.
Kamala Harris could potentially gain an edge if she succeeds in rallying young voters around these critical topics. This advantage may be further amplified by the higher turnout among registered young women compared to men. Conversely, Trump maintains solid backing from working-class voters who credit him for a strong economy during his term. However, Harris might benefit from recent declines in U.S. interest rates, which could potentially ease housing costs and inflation.
A significant portion of Generation Z remains undecided, making them a prime audience for third-party contenders who could alter the election's trajectory. While progressive candidates may resonate with Gen Z's priorities, frustration with mainstream politics might lead some young voters to abstain from voting altogether. Instead, these disillusioned individuals may opt to focus their efforts on grassroots and local advocacy initiatives.
