The results and implications of United States elections, held on November 8, are set to impose limits on President Joe Biden’s foreign policy agenda, including on the Middle East, according to Mr. Nabil Fahmy, former Egyptian foreign minister and founder of the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy (GAPP).
Fahmy, who was speaking at a seminar hosted on November 14 by Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS), outlined, among other things, the current course of foreign policy in light of Congress midterm elections and the ongoing shifts in the world order and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
Shifts in the World Order
The world order is going through a “near perfect storm of change” that is adding uncertainty about the future. In such a context a clear strategic decision-making process can be extremely complicated.
In the wake of World War II, a new bipolar world order was established based on the balance of power theory in international relations. Both the western and eastern camps believed that the so-called ‘mutual mass destruction’ is the essence of stability of the world order, and the guarantee that no third world war would break out. Yet, after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the eastern camp retreated and the western camp seized control of the international arena, all the concepts on which the world order was built vanished away but only one remains, and that is ‘the area of influence’ which implies that major powers must respect each other’s areas of influence.
In recent years, the United States dispelled this perception and the current world order eventually became entirely disconnected from the previous order that was created in 1945. Accordingly, the Russian-Ukrainian war is the outcome of this international context.
American Divisions
Before analyzing the process and outcome of the 2022 US midterm elections - in which all House members and two thirds of the Senate members were re-elected, one should have an overview of the outcome of US elections and presidential elections in particular over the past two decades.
Over the said period, four presidents were elected to the White House. With different and even contradictory political and social backgrounds, their policies were affected accordingly. This is a significant sign that the American people are in a state of disorientation or loss of identity, and are experiencing what seems to be a process of soul-searching and a quest for a definition of their future identity.
The outcome of the midterm elections seems to be validating this assumption, which means the state of loss of identity and disorientation is set to continue amid severe divisions and uncertainty about the future. The results of the elections show that the Democrats gained control of the Senate and are set to lose control of the House of Representatives to the Republicans who won with a narrow majority. Significantly, these results defy the historic trend where the incumbent president's party typically loses midterm elections to his rival at both the Senate and the House.
Key Implications
It can be said that three major factors determined the outcome of Congress elections. These are the economic situation, the future of abortion rights, as well as the influence of former President Donald Trump, who still has weight inside the Republican Party. Surprisingly, despite an ongoing ‘global war’ in Ukraine in which the United States is directly involved, foreign policy issues are not on the American voters’ list of interests.
Accordingly, the 2022 Congress elections gave rise to the following conclusions:
1. Evident loss for Trump’s supporters in the Republican Party:
A large number of Republicans who won the elections belong to the moderate movement in the GOP and distance themselves from Trump’s populist policies.
2. Changing demographic map of voters:
Women living in the outskirts now have a significant proportional weight, which means issues concerning this segment will become more important.
3. American voters’ hesitation in addressing foreign issues:
This became evident in the American voter’s fading interest in foreign policy issues, which is still in line of the American populism and isolationism growing in recent years. It is even compatible with the official view. In his trip to the Middle East in July 2022, President Biden said “will be the first president to visit the Middle East since 9/11 without US troops engaged in a combat mission there.”
4. Restraining Biden’s foreign movement:
It seems the new partisan distribution of seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate will restrain Biden’s foreign policy agenda but will stop short of blocking it. Biden is likely to fail to secure significantly larger additional funds for Ukraine or for his environment and climate change agenda.
Regional Policies
In light of ongoing shifts in the world order and the impact of the outcome of the elections on the US policy in the Middle East can be outlined as follow:
1. Resetting relations with Arab countries:
The United States is likely to work on resetting its relations with Arab states, and Gulf states in particular, driven by a need for cooperation with the OPEC Plus group to regulate oil prices and counter the energy crisis. At the same time, Washington is not willing to repeat its military involvement in Iraq, but will work on backing the new Iraqi government and empower and back Iraqi military and security forces with training and equipment, in a bid to curb Iranian influence in the country. Regarding Syria and Libya, Washington will be focused on undermining Russia’s influence in the two countries and its bid for expansion.
2. Receding chances for a nuclear deal with Iran:
Over the past months of negotiations about reviving the nuclear deal with Iran, President Biden appeared to be really willing in restoring the landmark agreement. But Washington believes that Tehran made this option a complicated one because of its intransigence and insistence on having the deal voted by Congress so as to become irreversible if a new US president makes it to the White House in 2024.
In the wake of midterm elections and the Republicans’ success in restoring a majority of seats at the House, it is hard to expect that the deal would be restored. Moreover, the political context in Iran and the ongoing protests across the country further complicates this issue.
Perhaps, the only chance for reviving the nuclear deal with Iran is to make a “grand deal” that does not only include Iran’s nuclear issue but also a settlement to Iran’s influence in Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. Although such a large-scale deal is complicated and hard to achieve, it is not completely unlikely. In any case, the US Administration will make sure not to ramp up escalation and tensions with Iran in the coming period.
3. Managing tension with Israel:
The recent elections in both the United States and Israel yielded a new reality that neither side is willing to deal with. The return of Benjamin Netanyahu at the helm of a more hardline right-wing government is nothing new for Biden, in light of his already strained relations with the Israeli leader. But Netanyahu definitely wants to see a Republican majority at both houses of Congress including as many “Trumpist” politicians as possible because these are the most compatible with his policies.
So as the current US Administration has less hope that Netanyahu would move the peace process forward, and even expects more escalation and annexation of more Palestinian lands in the West Bank, Washington would work on managing its relationship with him and his government and is unlikely to use up its political capital in an involvement, that is perhaps useless for it, in the peace process between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
4. Efficiently managing relations with Turkey:
Most US Republican and Democrat Administrations agreed on the importance of Turkey as a pivotal player in the West’s security system. Turkey became even more important for the West after the war broke out in Ukraine. The three determinants governing this approach to Turkey are: Anakara’s importance as a key player in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO); Ankara’s role in mediating the ongoing negotiations with Russia which resulted, in particular, in the grain agreement; Turkey’s support for Ukraine, including exports of Bayraktar TB2 UAVs which played a crucial role in the war with Russia.
Accordingly, and regardless of the outcome of the elections to be held in Turkey in 2023, relations between Turkey and the United States will always range between “good” and “efficiently-managed”.
