In October 2024, Ukrainian MP Oleh Dunda advocated for expanding the conflict with Russia to include its ally, Belarus, arguing that such action "would deal a blow" to Moscow. This statement lends credence to earlier claims from Minsk, which had reported Ukrainian military movements near the shared border, particularly in the Zhytomyr region, since late June. However, Kyiv swiftly refuted these allegations through a statement from the State Border Guard Service, asserting that its operations were solely focused on securing the border with Belarus.
The situation took an interesting turn when Ukraine, in response, leveled its own accusations against Minsk. Kyiv claimed that Belarus was mobilizing military forces, specifically special operations units and military equipment, in the Gomel rgion adjacent to Ukraine's northern border.
A Bilateral Alliance
The escalating military activities along the Ukraine-Belarus border carry significant implications, particularly as Ukraine continues to receive Western military support and tensions between Kyiv and Minsk intensify. This complex situation highlights several key aspects:
1- Political closeness between Moscow and Minsk:
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko remains committed to maintaining close ties with Moscow, largely due to Russia's unwavering support for his regime. This backing proved crucial in 2020 when Lukashenko faced massive protests in Belarusian cities following his controversial victory in the presidential election.
The foundation of this relationship lies in the "Union State" treaty, signed in 1999, which established several joint institutions. Chief among these is the Supreme State Council, comprising the presidents and prime ministers of both nations, along with the heads of their respective parliaments. The council's decision-making process requires unanimity, as each country holds a single vote.
Additionally, the treaty created a Council of Ministers and a bicameral Parliamentary Assembly of the Union. The latter consists of a House of Representatives with 75 deputies from Russia and 28 from Belarus, all elected by the general population of each country. While the treaty also stipulated the formation of a House of the Union with 72 elected deputies, this aspect was never implemented.
The Union State treaty has facilitated extensive cooperation between Russia and Belarus, surpassing the scope of other regional frameworks involving Russia and former Soviet states. This agreement has paved the way for integration in various domains, including economic, administrative, and commercial spheres. Specific areas of collaboration encompass road network development, attempts to unify currency, energy sector integration, and the harmonization of tax and customs systems.
2- Russian military support for Belarus:
Moscow and Minsk share deep-rooted strategic defense cooperation agreements, with Russian officials consistently reaffirming their commitment to protect Belarus from potential threats. On September 20, 2024, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova issued a stern warning of "catastrophic consequences" should Kyiv attempt any aggressive moves against Russia's ally Belarus. This declaration came in the wake of a surprising Ukrainian attack in Russia's Kursk region the previous month, underscoring the heightened tensions in the region.
The military cooperation between Russia and Belarus has seen a marked intensification. In a significant development in April 2024, Moscow deployed tactical weapons in Belarus, initially asserting full control over these assets. However, the situation evolved when the Belarusian General Staff later revealed that its soldiers had received training to operate these weapons if circumstances demanded, signaling a more profound level of military integration between the two nations.
This strengthening of military ties coincided with Belarusian President Lukashenko's pursuit of Russian support, a move precipitated by the imposition of economic sanctions from the European Union and the United States. These punitive measures were enacted in response to Lukashenko's controversial re-election and the subsequent harsh government crackdown on protesters. In a clear demonstration of solidarity, Moscow expressed its readiness to provide military assistance to Lukashenko if the need arose, ostensibly to safeguard Belarus's security and stability.
3- Ukraine’s attempt to draw NATO into the conflict:
Belarusian analysts speculate that if the reports from Russia and Belarus regarding Kyiv's alleged intentions to attack Belarus are indeed accurate, it might indicate Ukraine's strategy to directly involve NATO in the ongoing military conflict. Such a move could potentially provide NATO with a justification for direct military intervention in support of Ukraine. According to Minsk, there has been a noticeable increase in Ukrainian military presence along its borders, including a substantial deployment of drones, some of which have purportedly breached Belarusian airspace. However, Kyiv vehemently refutes these allegations, firmly asserting that it "has not and will not take any hostile actions against the people of Belarus."
Conflicting Signals
The following key points highlight the contradictions and complexities surrounding the ongoing tensions between Ukraine and Belarus:
1- Mutual accusations:
The Ukrainian Border Guard spokesman highlighted Minsk's recurring accusations against Kyiv, claiming plans for attacks on Belarusian territory as a pretext for potential future military actions. In response, Kyiv consistently maintains that Minsk's current behavior is part of an ongoing media campaign against Ukraine, coordinated with Moscow. To secure the border, Ukrainian guards are strategically positioned, viewing Minsk as a key player in Russia's war against Ukraine.
Kyiv's concerns extend to the frequent joint military exercises conducted by Belarus and Russia. A notable recent example was the tactical nuclear drill held in Russia on June 11, 2024. Furthermore, Russia's deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus marks a significant development, being the first time Moscow has stationed nuclear arms outside its borders since the Soviet Union's collapse.
The media campaigns against Ukraine from Belarus have a long-standing history. In 2021, Minsk closed its borders, citing arms smuggling from Ukraine as the reason. Additionally, Minsk has accused Kyiv and the West of supporting opposition movements aimed at overthrowing the government, drawing parallels to the protests against Lukashenko in 2020. During that period, Belarus published reports alleging Western attempts to intervene militarily through the borders with Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland.
It is important to note that Lukashenko relies heavily on Russian support and mutual defense agreements with Putin. These alliances serve as a bulwark for his regime against Western demands for political change in Minsk.
2- Strained relations with neighboring countries:
Belarus's relations with its neighbors have deteriorated amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. General Pavel Muraviko, Chief of the Belarusian General Staff, asserted that neighboring countries harbor hostility towards Minsk. He claimed these nations have attempted to impede Belarus's efforts to forge closer ties with China by obstructing its bid to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Despite these challenges, Belarus successfully became a member of the organization in July 2024.
3- Ongoing Belarusian support for Moscow:
Despite the economic losses incurred since Russia's military operation against Ukraine began in February 2022, Belarus has steadfastly maintained its support for Moscow. The Belarusian government views any refusal to back the Russian army as an act of betrayal. Consequently, Minsk's support has manifested in various ways, including intercepting Ukrainian missiles early in the conflict and launching counterattacks when Kyiv attempted to strike Belarus with Tochka-U missiles. These actions become more comprehensible when considering Belarus's perception of the Russian military campaign in eastern Ukraine as vital to its own national security.
Notably, Belarusian President Lukashenko, his wife, and several close associates have been subjected to U.S. sanctions. Furthermore, European countries have excluded Belarusian banks from the SWIFT system, effectively cutting off their access to billions of euros. In addition, the World Bank has suspended its projects in Belarus, further isolating the country economically.
Belarus's deep-rooted ties with Moscow extend beyond political alliances, encompassing religious, linguistic, and geographic connections. Both nations are predominantly Slavic and share the Russian Orthodox Christian faith. The economic relationship between the two countries is particularly significant, with Russia accounting for 50% of Belarus's foreign trade. Minsk benefits from inter-regional trade agreements, receiving natural gas from Russia in its local currency. Moreover, Belarus gains from the passage of gas pipelines through its territory and enjoys preferential treatment regarding the use of Russian ports on the Baltic Sea—a crucial advantage for the landlocked nation.
These multifaceted ties help explain Belarus's direct involvement in the war. U.S. data from the early stages of the conflict revealed that approximately 10% of Russian missiles were launched from Belarusian soil.
In conclusion, Belarus is likely to maintain its support for Moscow, despite the imposition of European and Western sanctions on Minsk. This unwavering allegiance to Russia serves to reinvigorate the "Union State" treaty, particularly in the face of ongoing economic sanctions targeting both nations. Simultaneously, Belarus seeks to mitigate its losses by leveraging Russia's burgeoning economic ties with China. Nevertheless, it remains improbable that tensions between Belarus and Ukraine will escalate into direct confrontation, as neither country stands to benefit from opening a new front in the conflict.
