Future Center for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS) recently convened a significant discussion panel featuring His Excellency Nabil Fahmy, the former Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs. Held on September 16, 2024, the event brought together FARAS's experts and researchers to explore critical developments in the upcoming US elections, scheduled for the 5th of November.
The panel's primary focus was on the contrasting orientations of the main candidates: Democratic Party nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republican Party candidate and former President Donald Trump. Participants delved into the potential stances of each candidate, with particular emphasis on their approaches to Middle East issues should they secure the presidency.
The Electoral Scene
Fahmy highlighted the key aspects of the current American electoral landscape, emphasizing several main points:
1- Difficulty in predicting the winning candidate: The outcome of the upcoming US presidential election remains highly uncertain. Given the current state of polarization, opinion polls show a margin of only 3% between candidates. This narrow gap means any significant event could sway the election in favor of either candidate. Moreover, this 3% difference may fall within the margin of error for these polls, further complicating predictions.
2- Punitive voting: The upcoming elections are characterized by a negative stance among American voters towards one of the candidates. Essentially, votes are cast as a form of punishment against one candidate rather than in support of another. This trend is particularly pronounced among the extremist wings of both major parties, with the competition now primarily between the far right in the Republican Party and the far left in the Democratic Party.
3- Mutual gains: Recent events have bolstered Trump's popularity, notably the two assassination attempts he faced, with the most recent occurring on September 15. Additionally, his speech successfully played on Americans' fears regarding the influx of immigrants from the southwestern border. Conversely, Harris achieved a notable success in the first debate with Trump on September 10, demonstrating gains on both sides.
4- Low level of discourse: This is glaringly evident in many of Trump's statements, including his controversial remarks about immigrants consuming dog and cat meat.
5- The influence of money outweighs institutions: While most American institutions are associated with the elite, who tend to lean more towards the Democrats, especially in recent times, their influence in the elections may not be as significant. This is due to the lack of consensus among these institutions, which have been affected by the same divisions plaguing American society. The substantial impact of financial contributions from institutions and large corporations in American elections may surpass the influence of other American institutions.
6- Searching for oneself: The United States remains in a phase of self-discovery, as evidenced by the extreme fluctuations in presidential choices over recent years. The progression from George W. Bush to Barack Obama, and then to Trump, indicates a state of societal confusion. The upcoming presidential election in November is unlikely to resolve this issue definitively, even if Harris were to become the first woman to hold the position of US president.
The Next Administration
Fahmi anticipated the characteristics of the upcoming US administration and its potential policies, both domestic and foreign, considering the scenarios of either Harris or Trump winning. Here's an enhanced version of the analysis:
1- If Harris wins:
A. Formation of the US administration:
Harris is expected to adopt a traditional approach, selecting most of her team from within established US institutions.
B. Expected policy:
"Step by step" approach: Given Harris's limited external experience and unclear foreign policy positions, she's likely to avoid major or surprising initiatives.
Domestic focus: Harris's primary project is expected to be internal, concentrating on economic and social issues within the United States.
Realistic regional stance: Despite lacking a clear vision for Middle East issues, Harris is anticipated to adopt a pragmatic, gradual policy towards the region.
Iran negotiations: Harris may attempt to revive the nuclear agreement with Iran, supported by a significant faction within the Democratic Party. Tehran's acceptance would likely increase if Democrats also control Congress, ensuring the agreement's implementation.
Limited expectations: It is unreasonable to fear Harris, as her actions will probably be traditional, institutional, and gradual. Expectations should be tempered accordingly.
2- If Trump wins:
A. Forming the administration:
Trump is likely to maintain his previous approach of selecting controversial yet decisive figures, often from outside American institutions. These may include individuals from financial, business, or his personal circles, particularly in economic and technological domains.
B. Expected policy:
Continued isolationism: Trump is unlikely to employ large-scale military force abroad, believing it offers little return on investment. He's expected to further reduce direct American presence overseas.
Surprise initiatives: Trump's tendency to launch unexpected individual initiatives is likely to persist, reminiscent of his 2019 meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Increased Iran sanctions: Trump's election would likely rule out a return to the nuclear agreement with Iran, instead intensifying sanctions.
Pro-Israel bias: Trump is expected to maintain his "deal-making" approach. In the event of an Israeli-Gaza conflict, any American deal would likely favor Tel Aviv.
Economic protectionism: Trump is anticipated to continue imposing significant restrictions on imports while facilitating domestic production and providing incentives for American companies.
In conclusion, the seminar discussion determined that predicting the winner of the 2024 US presidential election has become increasingly challenging, given the narrow margin between Harris and Trump in recent polls. Should Harris emerge victorious, it is anticipated that she will establish a conventional US administration, one that primarily adheres to institutional principles and draws its personnel from established governmental bodies. Conversely, if Trump secures a return to the White House, expectations are that he will assemble an administration comprising unconventional figures, particularly in relation to economic and technological portfolios.
