Against a backdrop of mounting instability in the Middle East—intensified by Israel’s ongoing military operations in Gaza following Hamas’ Al-Aqsa Flood attack on October 7, 2023, as well as rising aerial hostilities between Iran and Israel—the Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS) recently organized a discussion panel. The session focused on the recent regional escalations and their potential ramifications, with Dr. Mohammad Megahid al-Zayat, academic advisor at the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies, as the keynote speaker. Hossam Ibrahim, the Executive Director of FARAS, moderated the session, which featured contributions from FARAS experts and researchers.
Al-Zayat provided an in-depth analysis of the current regional landscape, highlighting key strategic dimensions and possible trajectories. The primary points he discussed are outlined as follows:
1. Spike in Targeted Leadership Assassinations:
Targeted assassinations spiked in Israel’s heightened operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Among the prominent figures recently killed were former Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah and his deputy, Hashem Safieddine, along with numerous senior Hezbollah leaders. Additionally, most senior Hamas leaders, including former Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh, were assassinated, followed by his successor, Yahya Sinwar. New developments emerged leading to these assassinations incorporating cutting-edge technology and artificial intelligence, leading to an unprecedented number of such attacks across the region.
2. Decline in Hezbollah’s Capabilities:
Israel’s escalation against Hezbollah in recent months has seriously eroded the group’s capabilities. More than 62 senior Hezbollah leaders have been assassinated since Israel launched its operations, with Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah’s ammunition and arms depots still ongoing. Despite this, Hezbollah retains significant power, as Israel has yet to establish ground control over southern Lebanon or force Hezbollah north of the Litani River.
3. Syria Avoiding Direct Involvement in the Conflict:
Syria has sought to avoid direct involvement in the Gaza conflict, prioritizing its efforts for restoring the troubled internal situation caused by the civil war that broke out in 2011. Nevertheless, Iran’s military presence in Syria, along with Israel’s repeated airstrikes on Iranian assets in Syria, may ultimately pull Syria into the ongoing regional conflict.
4. Iran and Israel Signaling Through an Exchange of Strikes:
The recent Iranian strike on Israel on October 1, 2024, and Israel’s retaliatory strike against Iran on October 26 reflect each side’s intent to demonstrate its reach and ability to target the other’s military and nuclear infrastructure. While the precise outcomes of these attacks remain uncertain, with each side concealing its losses to avoid triggering countermeasures, satellite imagery has revealed damage to Israel’s Nevatim airbase in the Negev Desert to the Iranian strike, which also sent a threatening message that the Dimona nuclear reactor too can be targeted. In response, Israel’s strikes damaged Iran’s air defense systems and targeted critical ballistic missile production sites, emphasizing that Iranian nuclear sites are within reach of Israeli missiles.
5. US Policy Influence in the Region:
When it comes to Middle Eastern strategic issues, the policies of the US Republicans and Democrats exhibit little difference in their overarching goals, although they vary in tactics and implementation. As a result, regardless of whether Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris wins the US presidency, the current dynamics in the region are unlikely to shift significantly.
6. Prospects for Reshaping the Region:
Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon, coupled with related escalations across various regional fronts, have led to a highly fluid security, military, and political situation. These dynamics could ultimately lead to a reshaping of the region, as the current escalation fundamentally represents a broader conflict between Iran and its proxies on one side and Israel and the US, which supports it, on the other.
