Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has announced that he will step down as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) when his term ends in late September 2024. The party will select a successor to Kishida, given the LDP-led coalition's control over the Japanese Parliament.
The new government is likely to call for early elections rather than waiting until October 2025, the scheduled date for the next elections. The party hopes that having a new prime minister will help it retain its parliamentary majority and secure assuming additional years in power. According to the regulations, votes in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election to select Kishida's successor will be counted between September 20 and 29, 2024.
Declining Support
The main reasons behind Kishida's decision to step down can be summarized as follows:
1. Declining popular support:
In recent months, there has been a noticeable drop in public approval for Kishida. In February 2024, a poll conducted by a local newspaper revealed that only 14% of voters approved of his administration's performance. By July, his approval rating had fallen to below 22%, far below the 30% threshold that had led to the downfall of previous Japanese prime ministers. Kishida's low approval ratings were primarily due to bribery scandals, which will be further explained, as well as what some Japanese circles considered shortcomings in addressing both domestic and foreign challenges.
2. Political bribery scandal:
The political bribery scandal further contributed to the decline in Kishida's popularity. In November 2023, Japanese media revealed that key factions within the Liberal Democratic Party had failed to properly report funds received from fundraising activities. Members of the LDP were found to have been receiving the surplus as bribes, causing significant embarrassment for Kishida, both as the party leader and the prime minister, even though he was not personally involved in these practices.
The political funding scandal during Kishida's tenure led to a complex and prolonged crisis regarding political financing. This ultimately resulted in the dismantling of almost all the old factions within his ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the downfall of several senior politicians. The scandal also led to widespread public disapproval of Japan's ruling party's policies, making Kishida's decision to step down inevitable.
3. Increasing economic difficulties:
In addition to the political funding scandal, economic challenges also contributed to the decline in Kishida's popularity. Despite his efforts to combat inflation, a series of supply chain disruptions, rising energy prices, and a devalued yen pushed inflation to around 4%—double the target set by the Bank of Japan. The policies of the former governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, had failed to keep inflation at the desired 2%, leading to higher prices and growing public dissatisfaction. This was despite Kishida's plan to expand subsidies and implement overall tax reductions to support households, as well as his efforts to lift Japan's economy out of stagnation.
Escalating Challenges
The main challenges that the potential successor to Kishida may face can be outlined as follows:
1. The dilemma of choosing Kishida's successor:
One of the critical questions is whether the next leader of the Liberal Democratic Party will have the experience and resilience required to address upcoming domestic and international challenges. The party is working to select a successor who commands respect both among the public and within the party. Currently, around 11 party members are vying for Kishida's position, with the focus being on former Minister of Trade Toshimitsu Motegi (68), former Minister of Defense Shigeru Ishiba (67), and former Minister of Foreign Affairs Taro Kono، (61).
In addition to these figures, other names have also emerged, including the young candidate Shinjiro Koizumi (43), who served as Minister of the Environment in the cabinets of former Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Yoshihide Suga. Shinjiro Koizumi is the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Takayuki Kobayashi also came into the spotlight, announcing his candidacy just a few days after Kishida's announcement. Katsunobu Kato is also vying for the position, along with Sanae Takaichi, who represents the right-wing faction within the Liberal Democratic Party and would become Japan's first female prime minister if she wins the position.
2. Continued decline of the opposition:
Kishida's potential successor will likely face a fragmented opposition, which could provide an opportunity to implement desired policies. Despite the declining support for the Liberal Democratic Party and Kishida, the opposition parties remain divided and weak. The limited gains they made in local elections reflected the unpopularity of the Liberal Democratic Party rather than an increase in support for the opposition, which has not presented any alternative policies. This fragmentation could make it easier for Kishida's successor to navigate and implement their agenda.
3. A changing global geopolitical landscape:
The next Japanese prime minister will face a highly complex global geopolitical landscape. China continues to pose threats by seeking opportunities to seize the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Additionally, North Korea persists in developing nuclear and ballistic missiles, which Tokyo views as a threat to its national security. The ongoing crisis in Ukraine and its repercussions, particularly the growing cooperation between Russia, China, and North Korea, further complicate the situation. Moreover, the potential election of the Republican candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump could introduce a new set of challenges for Kishida's potential successor.
Expected Policies
Kishida's successor will need to make a series of crucial decisions to ensure the party's continued hold on power and success in the anticipated early elections. These decisions will encompass domestic economic and social policies as well as foreign policies, including those related to regional dynamics and the substantial strengthening of Japan's defense capabilities.
Kishida worked on bolstering the security policy initiated by late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe; however, he avoided discussions on nuclear armament and Japan's deterrence capabilities. This issue will be central for his successor, especially amid rising tensions with China and North Korea. The potential successor will also focus on strengthening Tokyo's relations with neighboring countries to address regional, external, and internal challenges.
1. Aging population:
The aging population crisis is one of the most significant challenges Kishida's successor will have to address, primarily through policies that support childbirth. This crisis is a major source of concern in Japan, particularly regarding the economy and national security. The country's population, currently over 125 million, is expected to decline to 86.7 million by 2060, indicating that the Japanese economy is heading toward multiple challenges. This issue is compounded by weak immigration support policies, which have a direct impact on the country's economic outlook.
2. Addressing inflation:
Japanese voters are expecting Kishida's succesor to implement new policies to combat inflation, which has caused widespread discontent over the past three years of his tenure and led to a sharp decline in his popularity. Rising prices have been a major concern for citizens, with inflation increasing in August 2024. This situation may prompt the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates gradually as part of its efforts to support the economy. Prices have risen by 2.4%, adding pressure on citizens and necessitating an urgent response from the incoming prime minister.
3. Enhancing regional cooperation:
The next Japanese prime minister may seek to improve relations with neighboring countries, particularly with South Korea, and to ease current tensions with China. Additionally, they will need to secure the resources required to continue shifting Japan's policy from pacifism towards active military cooperation with the United States. This shift is underscored by a 26% increase in defense spending, with the Japanese Ministry of Defense requesting 8.54 trillion yen (59 billion dollars) for the fiscal year 2025—an all-time high budget request aimed at addressing increasing regional challenges. Furthermore, the new prime minister will need to engage more actively with the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), addressing the implications of the Ukrainian crisis and tensions between the Koreas.
In conclusion, the potential successor to Kishida is likely to benefit from the political and economic legacy left by his predecessor in addressing the challenges that remain. Although Kishida achieved notable successes in economic areas such as supporting startups and semiconductor companies, and made significant progress in improving relations with South Korea, his successor will need to confront a range of internal and external challenges. These include the debt crisis and managing relationships with both adversaries and allies.
