Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a severe, unprecedented crisis due to multiple failures by his government, which was formed at the end of 2022. These failures include the inability to pass most of the judicial reform plan. The latter sparked six months of protests in Israel and strained relations with US President Joe Biden's administration. Additionally, Netanyahu’s strategy to deter Hamas has failed, leading to the worst attack on Israel since the 1948 war. The Prime Minister has also failed to achieve the goals he set for the war on Gaza. Over the past, eight months, Israel has failed to eliminate Hamas, free hostages, and ensure that a repeat of the October 7, 2023, attack would not occur again.
The deep divisions within the government coalition and the war cabinet overseeing the war in Gaza suggest that Netanyahu's long reign may soon end. Israeli political analysts, however, fear Netanyahu might escape his fate through his proven resilience. That is, even as he has been pursued by the judiciary since 2019 on charges of corruption, bribery, and abuse of power.
Nonetheless, it is inaccurate that Netanyahu's past ability to withstand crises—whether from within his party, his right-wing allies (the religious Zionist and Haredi parties), or the opposition, will help him overcome the current crisis. The ongoing situation is not just a political one like those Netanyahu faced before the October 7 war; it is an existential crisis both for the state (as Netanyahu himself put it) and for the Prime Minister personally. His entire political career was built on the slogan "Netanyahu is the best for Israel's security," a claim that has been shattered by the Hamas attack.
In spite of this, it is essential to examine the limits of Netanyahu's chances of political survival, versus the possibility of being ousted.
Chances of Staying in Power
Most assessments of Netanyahu's character indicate that he is the type of politician who can maneuver to address any crisis, no matter how severe. Yet, his chance to remain in power is dependent on multiple factors:
1. The first factor supporting his chances of remaining in power is his determination to carry on. This was evident as early as three weeks into the Gaza war when army and intelligence leaders took responsibility for the failure to foresee Hamas' intentions. Netanyahu denied responsibility when he claimed that the reports provided by the Military Intelligence Directorate (Aman) recommended against embarking a preemptive attack on Hamas in Gaza, despite its accumulation of weapons and training fighters for engagement with Israeli forces. Although Netanyahu quickly apologized for this at the time, he reiterated the same claims again on May 24.
2. The second factor Netanyahu might rely on includes the following points:
A. Personalization of Likud
After nearly two decades at the helm of the Likud, Netanyahu succeeded in "personalizing” the party, i.e. making the party's survival dependent on his own leadership. HE overcame all his rivals and competitors within Likud, and in 2005, rallied the party's central committee against its leader, Ariel Sharon, over his plan for disengagement from Gaza. This forced Sharon to leave the Likud party and form a new one called Kadima. While Netanyahu managed to strengthen Likud and reinstate it as the ruling party in 2009, after a short period in opposition, Kadima, which lost its leader Sharon after his illness and subsequent coma in 2006, collapsed completely after just two election cycles.
B. Overcoming Party Splits
Netanyahu managed to navigate significant rifts within the Likud. The fracture started in 2014 when prominent politician Moshe Kahlon withdrew from the party to form the Kulanu party, which dissolved itself in 2019. Similarly, Gideon Sa'ar was ousted from the Likud after losing the internal elections for the party leadership against Netanyahu in the 2019. Sa’ar then founded the New Hope Party, but its performance in successive elections up to 2023 showed the limited impact it had on right-wing voters. This was evident when it secured few seats before merging with the National Unity (or State Camp), a political alliance led by former Chief of Staff Benny Gantz, in the November 2022 elections.
Looking back, the breakaways of Kahlon and Sa'ar from Likud enabled Netanyahu to eliminate two strong rivals who aspired to succeed him. Their departure, along with the weak performance of their parties in the general elections, preserved the Likud’s strength and Netanyahu's power within the party. This also served as a deterrent to anyone considering challenging Netanyahu for the party leadership in the future.
C. Weak alternatives
Netanyahu's control over Likud remains strong despite the emergence of opposing voices calling for his departure following the crisis of the war in Gaza. Economy Minister Nir Barkat claims that Netanyahu's continued leadership would cost Likud the next election, asserting that he could secure at least 25 seats. However, polls this May project Barkat to win only 17 seats if elections were held today. Other potential rivals, including Yuli Edelstein and Moshe Feiglin, lack significant support within the Likud. More concerning rivals for Netanyahu are David Bitan and Danny Danon, who align with opposition leader Yair Lapid to bring down the coalition by a no-confidence vote in the Knesset and call for early elections.
However, predicting the impact of these moves on Netanyahu's future within Likud is challenging, even if they succeed in toppling the government.
Nonetheless, Netanyahu can rely on the support of most Likud members to retain his leadership. This support is not necessarily due to personal loyalty, but rather the uncertain future of the party without a charismatic alternative like Netanyahu, despite the fallout from the Gaza war.
3. The third factor that could provide Netanyahu with a safety net against losing ground within Likud and in politics overall is the right-wing bloc’s rallying around him. The religious Zionist parties, led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the Haredi parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism), are well aware that their chances of maintaining the ruling coalition with Netanyahu, or forming a new coalition led by Likud, will diminish when he is gone. Likud's future will be uncertain without Netanyahu, and these parties’ inability to independently form a government or participate in other ruling coalitions, especially given their deep ideological differences with the center and left opposition parties, further strengthens their support for him.
Obstacles to Staying in Power
If Netanyahu's bid to remain in office and in political life largely relies on the support of both his party and the right-wing Zionist and Haredi parties, the challenges he faces appear more effective and varied. These include:
1. Internal government conflicts
The war cabinet government managing the war on Gaza is experiencing severe disagreements. Benny Gantz, leader of the State Camp alliance, withdrew from the current government on June 9, citing the failure of the cabinet to agree a plan for Gaza beyond the current war. The anticipated action plan includes achieving several goals: eliminating Hamas, freeing hostages, forming an alternative government in Gaza, returning Israeli residents to northern Israel, and advancing normalization with Saudi Arabia. Gantz also previously demanded the swift formation of a governmental committee to investigate the failures and responsibilities regarding the events since October 7, 2023.
It is clear that Gantz has set these demands—some of which Netanyahu rejects—in order to avoid losing a significant sector of Israeli public opinion that opposes his withdrawal before achieving the goal of eliminating Hamas. That is why Gantz included this goal among his demands while reports indicate that, unlike Netanyahu, Gantz is willing to accept the Palestinian National Authority taking over the administration of Gaza Strip after the end of the war. Although Gantz’s withdrawal from the war cabinet will not lead to the collapse of the ruling coalition, yet his current presence in the opposition will increase the pressure on Netanyahu to dissolve the coalition and call for early elections. Despite that these pressures have not succeeded yet, there are no real guarantees for Netanyahu and Likud to return to power in any upcoming elections, according to current opinion polls.
2. Pressures from the Biden Administration
The Biden administration is pressuring Netanyahu to limit the scale of the ongoing war on Gaza and accept a role for the Palestinian National Authority in Gaza’s post-war governance. Netanyahu fears the close ties between the Biden administration and Benny Gantz concerning post-war policy, particularly as polls suggest the latter could win the next elections.
It is well-known that Netanyahu has a long history of mistrusting the Americans in this particular aspect. He previously accused former US President Bill Clinton's administration of causing his downfall in the 1999 elections, which were won by the then-Leader of the Labor Party, Ehud Barak. Additionally, Netanyahu accused former US President Barack Obama of attempting to overthrow him in the 2013 elections, which Netanyahu ultimately won.
3. Potential investigations and public pressure
Even if the commission of inquiry into the events in Gaza, which Gantz demanded, is not formed currently, its establishment is inevitable after the end of the war. While Netanyahu hopes that this entity will not be formed before he can announce victory over Hamas, the idea of fully eradicating Hamas seems unlikely. That is because in asymmetric wars between regular armies and armed groups it is difficult to determine the winners and losers, unless the Israeli army manages to capture or kill Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif.
Nevertheless, even such an outcome will not necessarily mean that the commission would exonerate Netanyahu. Accusations of negligence and failures leading to recommendations of his removal from the position of Prime Minister (if he is still holding the office at that time) will remain plausible.
4. Persistent challenges
Assuming Netanyahu can evade condemnation by the inevitable commission of inquiry, this alone will not be enough to protect him from falling under the pressure from the Israeli public. Just a year ago, massive demonstrations demanding his resignation due to his judicial reform plan were held for six continuous months. There is an old precedent indicating that the Israeli public can sometimes impose change by itself rather than through legal institutions. Former Prime Minister Golda Meir and her Labor party won the elections in December 1973, two months after the October 6 war with both Syria and Egypt broke out, and a new government was formed under her leadership. However, Six months later, despite reports from the Agranat Commission- formed at that time to investigate the failures in the war- clearing her of any responsibility, protests forced Meir to resign on April 11, 1974, and give up her Knesset seat on June 7, 1974.
5. Ongoing corruption trials
Netanyahu remains on trial since 2019 on charges of corruption and bribery. It is not unlikely that the hearings in these cases could be intensified, leading to a conviction and his removal from office, or even his imprisonment.
In conclusion, Netanyahu has a slim chance of remaining in the Israeli political scene after the Gaza war ends because factors supporting his ousting are overwhelmingly stronger than those that might help him stay in power.
