International mediations and superpowers’ pressures failed to put an end to Turkey’s intention to intervene militarily in Afrin. On January 20, 2018, the Turkish army announced it will launch the Olive Branch military operation in Afrin. The announcement marked a new chapter of Turkish intervention in the Syria crisis. The Turkish involvement began in August 2016 when Turkey launched Euphrates Shield Operation to expel ISIS from Jarabulus and push them away from the Turkish borders towards the South. It further aimed to prevent Kurdish militias from achieving any geographic unity between the territories they control in North Syria. In October 2017, a Turkish military force was deployed in Idlib as part of the de-escalation agreement in Syria that was approved during the Astana talks sponsored by Turkey, Iran and Russia.
Indicators of Escalation
In January, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said during the 6th Ordinary Provincial Meeting of the Justice and Development Party that a military operation will be launched in Afrin in North Syria against fighters of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party who are stationed in the city. Turkey categorizes the Democratic Union Party and its military wing, the People's Protection Units, as terrorist organizations, since it is the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party.
Turkey’s military operation in Afrin began on January 13 when Turkish forces stationed near the Syrian borders heavily attacked posts where fighters of the Kurdish People's Protection Units are positioned using artillery shelling. Meanwhile, the Turkish army resumed tightening its siege on Afrin from four sides as it prepared to launch a ground operation against the city to expel Kurdish fighters from it. Turkish forces deployed from the north and west sides, along the border with the city. As for the south side, they deployed in Idlib, where Turkey has established three military bases that overlook Afrin.
The Turkish army sent military reinforcements to the borders and bases in Syria. These reinforcements included tanks, troop carriers and armored vehicles in addition to medium and heavy machine guns. Syrian opposition forces supported by Turkey stationed in the East, in the city of Azaz that is adjacent to Afrin. 3,000 Free Syrian Army members are expected to participate in the possible ground stack against the city.
On January 20, 2018, Turkey’s air force intensified its strikes against areas where Kurdish forces are positioned. Violent clashes also erupted on Afrin’s northern borders. Ankara deployed its KORAL electronic warfare to jam radars on the Syrian-Turkish borders. This prevented American and Russian aircrafts from flying at night as the system was capable of jamming their warplanes and air defense systems, including the S-400 Russian system.
Meanwhile, Kurdish forces began preparing to confront any possible ground attack by Turkey or by the Syrian opposition forces. The People's Protection Units announced their readiness to deter any Turkish attack. Kurdish fighters deployed east of the city to deter any attack by Syrian opposition forces stationed there. They also set fortifications and dug trenches and tunnels, as they prepared for long confrontations. They further aim to force hostile troops to engage in a war of attrition.
Several Motives
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s announcement to launch a military operation against Kurdish fighters in Afrin aims to achieve three main goals:
1. Contain separatist orientations: Turkey’s military operation in Afrin aims to prevent the establishment a Kurdish state or an autonomous Kurdish region alongside the Turkish borders in North Syria. This was the similar aim of the Euphrates Shield Operation launched in August 2016. Turkey believes establishing this state poses a threat to its national security and to the coherence of the Turkish state, which has been involved in an armed conflict against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party since the 1980’s. The latter party aims to establish an autonomous Kurdish zone in their areas in East and Southeast Turkey.
2. Demolishing the border guards’ force: The Turkish military operation comes in response to the intentions of the US-led international coalition against ISIS to establish border forces in North and East Syria to protect its borders with Turkey and Iraq. This force comprises of 30,000 fighters. Half of them are from the Syrian Democratic Forces fighters, who are dominated by Kurds. Erdogan threatened to “strangle it before it’s even born,” and he accused the US of establishing a “terrorist army” on the Turkish border. He also pledged to expand the new Turkish operation to include Manbij and the rest of the Syrian cities on East of the Euphrates River that fall under the control of Kurdish fighters. This is tantamount to a Turkish declaration of war against Syria’s Kurds.
3. Strengthening national tendency: This is represented in politically employing the military operation in Afrin in favor of Erdogan and his party, the Justice and Development Party, during the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for next year. They can appeal to the Turks’ national sentiment to gain more votes especially that these elections are of paramount significance to Erdogan and his party, as they are the first ones to be held after approving the constitutional amendments in April 2017 transforming Turkey into a presidential system.
Pre-arrangements
The Turkish military operation in Afrin has been limited to artillery shelling ever since it was announced on January 13, 2018. No ground troops have intervened and no airstrikes were launched, until Turkey announced the Olive Branch operation. This delay has been due to lack of coordination between Turkey and Russia about the military operation, which Turkey desires to launch. Russian-Turkish agreements in Syria do not include the Kurdish affair as Russia does not categorize the Kurdistan Workers’ Party as a terror group. Instead, it has an office for the Syrian-Kurdish Democratic Union Party on its territories. Russia also hopes to include it in the Syrian dialogue sessions in Sochi. This is in addition to the fact that Iran and the Syrian regime reject a Turkish ground or aerial attack on Afrin although all of them, Turkey, Russia, Iran and the Syrian regime, have a common stance against the American announcement to form the “border guards’ force.”
During this phase, Turkey sought to attain a Russian green light to launch its ground and aerial attack on Afrin. On January 18, the Turkish Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Hulusi Akar and Head of Turkey's National Intelligence Organization Hakan Fidan met with Russia’s Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov and Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in Moscow to discuss the Turkish military operation in Afrin. Turkey also requested Moscow to shut down the S-400 defense systems deployed in the Khmeimim and Latakia airbases so its warplanes can fly above Afrin.
Turkey’s efforts to attain Russia’s approval succeeded, as on January 20 the Russian defense ministry announced withdrawing its troops in Afrin to Tal Refaat to prevent possible provocations and rule out threats against Russian soldiers. At the same time, Russia held the US responsible for the Turkish operation in Afrin. Moscow claimed that the operation came as a result of the provocative measures the US took to isolate areas where Kurds live deploying the so called “border forces” in areas neighboring Turkey.
Russia’s implicit approval came right after the Syrian regime announced its complete control over the strategic Abu al-Duhur military airport. The regime and its allies have been trying to seize control of this airport since the beginning of January, but they failed several times due to the resistance of factions supported by Turkey. This means there could be a possible deal between Turkey on one hand and Russia and the Assad regime on another to give up the airport in exchange of allowing the Turks to enter Afrin. A similar deal was conducted in December 2016, where Turkey gave up on the Syrian opposition in Aleppo and the regime and its allies seized control of the latter, while the regime in exchange allowed Ankara to take Al-Bab. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu’s statement that Turkey informed the Syrian regime of the military operation in Afrin strengthens this theory. An official source at the Syrian foreign ministry, however, told the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) on January 20, “Syria completely denies claims by the Turkish regime’s that it was informed of this military operation.”
The implicit approval came after confirming that the Kurds are now the US’ major tool in Syria to restore its influence there, after Russia solely controls the situation in Syria.
Turkish Concerns
It is probable that Olive Branch Operation will in the beginning be limited to artillery shelling and aerial shelling of Kurdish fighters’ posts for the purpose of exhausting Kurdish troops in the city. The operation may be followed the Syrian opposition forces’ ground invasion aided by Turkish tanks, special forces and air cover.
Despite Turkey’s insistence to invade the city and expel Kurdish fighters, there are Turkish concerns of being involved in a long war of attrition in Afrin due to the city’s complicated mountainous areas, which the Kurdish fighters know very well. Kurdish fighters are also equipped with advanced Russian and American weapons and acquired fighting skills and expertise during their clashes with ISIS. Turkey is also afraid that the Russian and American stance on the Kurds may change on the long run. Meanwhile, the US still rejects the Turkish military operation, and called for Turkey to rather focus on fighting ISIS. The Russian foreign ministry said it was concerned that Turkey launched its aerial and ground attack on Afrin and urged restraint.
In conclusion, it is evident that Turkey intends to launch a comprehensive military operation to keep the Kurdish Democratic Union Party’s fighters away from its borders with Syria and to eliminate the dream of establishing a Kurdish state in North Syria. This was clear in Erdogan’s announcement that Turkey would work on developing this operation to include Manbij and the Iraqi borders. This will put Turkey in a direct confrontation with the US, which is the major supporter of Syria’s Kurds and whose soldiers are deployed in Manbij. This will force Turkey to make more concessions to the Syrian regime and its allies, the Russians and the Iranians, in exchange of being allowed to control more areas in North Syria. This means that Turkey’s priority in Syria is now concerned with confronting the Kurdish threat and not toppling the Assad regime.
