On November 18, the Taliban tweeted that its special forces arrested an ISIS cell in the Murad Bey Castle region in Kabul, preparing to launch attacks on civilians. The incident took place three days after the Taliban attacked several Isis hideouts in Kandahar, in the south of Afghanistan, killing four Isis fighters and arresting ten.

Taliban's military operations  

Recently, the Taliban has been particularly interested in thwarting the increasing threats that Khorasan's ISIS poses. The Taliban aims to achieve several goals, which will be discussed in detail in the following section:

1.     The Taliban is seeking financial support:

The main challenge that the Taliban has to deal with, in its strife to gain full control over Afghanistan and to prove that it is capable of ruling the country with utmost efficiency, is the economic challenge. As a matter of fact, the Taliban's increasing interest in combatting Isis can be interpreted in this light, as it is likely will allow the Taliban to be eligible for financial aid from foreign countries, and help unfreeze Afghan assets in the banks of the world.  Naturally, the Taliban needs money to be able to provide services and pay salaries.

This is why Islamabad, the Taliban's key ally, has called on the international community to resume providing the Afghan movement with financial support, warning that Afghanistan is about to experience total economic collapse. Furthermore, if Afghanistan manages to achieve security and stability, it will be able to establish sound economic relations globally. This will make it possible to attract foreign investments, especially from China, so that Afghanistan can make use of its natural resources, including copper, cobalt, gold, iron, lithium, and lapis lazuli.

In addition, Afghanistan overlooks the most important trade routes connecting the south of Asia to its centre and north. It aims to become one of the main passages of the Belt and Road Initiative, just like its ally, Pakistan. On September 28, Pakistan's ambassador to Afghanistan Mr. Mansour Ahmed Khan said that Islamabad already discussed the possibility of allowing the Taliban government to join the infrastructure project of the Chinese- Pakistani Economic Corridor.

2.     The Taliban is seeking to gain international recognition:

Since it took over in Afghanistan, the Taliban has sought international recognition. However, it realizes that this mainly depends on its attitude towards terrorist organizations; if the Taliban manages to prevent such organizations as ISIS from using Afghan territories in launching attacks on foreign countries, it is likely to gain international recognition. Most probably, the international community is concerned about the Taliban's ability to achieve this; over the past two months, ISIS has launched several serious attacks in Afghanistan, killing no less than 90 people and injuring hundreds. These global concerns have been made all the worse by estimates by officials from the western world, predicting that ISIS will resume attacking international targets within the next six to twelve months.

So far, however, the Taliban has succeeded in making use of its war on ISIS in gaining international recognition. This is manifest in the fact that on November 11, representatives of Troika Plus (which comprises the US, Russia, China and Pakistan) met the Taliban's Foreign Minister Amir Khan Motaqi. This is by far the largest 'close encounter' between the new Afghan government and the world. Besides, there were several meetings between a Taliban delegation and American, Turkish and Qatari officials in Doha on November 26 and 27.  This strongly suggests that the Taliban is still negotiating the world to seek its recognition in return for meeting certain conditions.

3.     The Taliban is after gaining public support and maintaining security:

The Taliban's attempt to defeat ISIS is actually part of its attempt to have full control over Afghanistan and impose order, discipline and security, which will serve its long-term goal of gaining popularity and so legitimacy. This is particularly important now, as ISIS' attacks are growing fiercer.  

According to estimates, ISIS conducted about 54 attacks in Afghanistan in the period from September 18 to October 28. These attacks (which included suicide bomb attacks, assassinations and ambushes) targeted civilians, infrastructure and Shi’ite mosques, both in the north and in the south of Afghanistan. The latest attack targeted Kabul's Military Hospital on November 2, killing about 19 people. Such attacks prevent the Taliban from having a firm grip on Afghanistan, which may encourage the movement's opponents (with the help and support of neighbouring countries) to take up arms the future.  

4.     The Taliban wants to avenge its deceased leaders:

The attacks launched by the Taliban on ISIS in Afghanistan bears the fact that the Taliban has vengeful intentions, especially after a Taliban military leader called Hamdullah Mokhlis was killed in the aforementioned attack on Kabul's Military Hospital. Mokhlis a member of the Badri 313 Battalion, a Taliban special force entrusted with the task of combatting ISIS in Afghanistan. It is noteworthy that Mokhlis is the most important Taliban official to get killed since the Taliban came to power last August. 

What are the Taliban’s odds?

In the following section, we will shed light on the potential scenarios of the Taliban-ISIS confrontation in the near future. The confrontation is expected to follow one of these scenarios:

1.     The Taliban may manage to defeat ISIS:

According to this scenario, the Taliban is expected to contain the danger of ISIS and prevent the terrorist organisation from pursing its activities in Afghanistan. This may be achieved with the help of the Pakistani military and intelligence, as well as the support of international players. The aforementioned meeting between the Taliban and Troika Plus representatives focused, among other things, on the importance of establishing stability in Afghanistan and protecting it from becoming a safe haven for terrorist organizations. The Taliban also depends on the Haqqani terrorist network, al-Qaeda and pro-Taliban Afghans in dealing with ISIS, as they have first-hand experience when it comes to fighting it. They are also used as 'informants'.

2.     The Taliban may fail to stand up to ISIS:

According to this scenario, the Taliban may fail to defeat ISIS, the reason being foreign governments' insistence on suspending economic aid and freezing Afghan assets. This deteriorating economic situation will give rise to public outrage, which will, in turn, create an opportunity for ISIS to recruit new elements.

Early on November, Wall Street Journal said that ISIS succeeded in recruiting elements from former Afghan army and intelligence. As these elements were trained by US forces, one can see how dangerous the situation can be.

However, this scenario seems less likely as ISIS is not very popular in Afghanistan. In the past, the terrorist organization failed to control large areas of the country, the exception being Kunar and Nangarhar states in the East, where extreme Islamic Fundamentalism dominates. As for the rest of Afghanistan, most people adopt the moderate ideas of the Hanafi School. This means that ISIS's ability to win favour with more Afghans in the future is rather limited.

3.     The situation remain as is:

According to this scenario, the Taliban may fail to completely defeat ISIS, but it will rather weaken it to a great extent. Therefore, ISIS will not take over but will keep on launching terrorist attacks, thus exhausting the Taliban and embarrassing it in front of its neighbours and the whole world.

In conclusion, we can say that the Taliban's success in having full control over Afghanistan, establishing security and overcoming ISIS mainly depends on its: 1) maintaining its internal integrity, 2) securing Pakistan's continuous support and 3) managing to appease international fears concerning the situation in Afghanistan, so that the movement can get financial aid from the international community.  

It is expected that the Taliban will "use" the terrorist operations that ISIS is carrying out in projecting an image of itself as a movement ideologically different from ISIS, whose prime concern is to vanquish the latter. The Taliban will try to stress that its success in defeating ISIS is contingent upon its getting international recognition and economic support from international players so that Afghanistan can be protected from falling into a state of chaos and turning into a terrorist paradise.