In a number of Western African states, ethnic and tribal organizations emerged seeking to achieve highly localized goals through adopting jihadist approaches and slogans to be able to receive material and human support. The organization started to escalate its terrorist attacks on December 2016 when it issued a statement claiming responsibility for an attack in Nassoumbou, a commune of Soum Province in northwestern Burkina Faso that left 12 soldiers dead.
After a months-long pause, the organization resumed its attacks in early 2017 and claimed responsibility of an attack on two police stations in Baraboulé and Tongomaye on February 28, 2017.
It also started to target the forces of neighboring countries and on March 5, 2017, it carried out an attack on a military base in Boulkessi on the border between Burkina Faso and Mali, killing 11 Malian soldiers.
An extension of Macina Liberation Movement
Ansarul Islam, which is led by Burkinabe Ibrahim Malam Dicko, is one of the organizations carrying out what can be described as ethnic terrorism and violence under a religious slogan. A majority of the organization’s militants belong to the Fula people, or Fulani, a large ethnic group in Sahel and West Africa, who demand the revival of the Fulani Empire, also known as the Sokoto Caliphate in West Africa. This prompted several analysts to indicate that the organization is an extension of the Macina Liberation Movement in Mali that defends the rights of the Fulani people.
Northern Burkina Faso is home to the organization’s largest presence, where it seeks to take advantage of the problems facing the Fulani to recruit a maximum number of elements to carry out terror attacks inside and outside Burkina Faso.
Al-Qaeda Inspiration
The ideology driving Ansarul Islam is very close to that of al-Qaeda, adopted by several terror organizations in West Africa and North Africa. However, Ansarul Islam singles itself out from other organizations by adapting and harnessing al-Qaeda’s doctrine to suit its reality, goals and local environment. More specifically, because such small-size organizations lack the capability of establishing an independent ideological system, they embrace the extremist cross-border ideology. Accordingly, one can possibly classify it as al-Qaeda-inspired organization that includes a significant number of terrorist groups that are not involved in the organizational structure of al-Qaeda but, from an ideological and military perspective, remains very close and allied to al-Qaeda. This was the case with the Macina Liberation Movement and the Ansar Dine group, which publicly entered into an alliance with two al-Qaeda franchises the Sahara Emirate and the Al Mourabitoun (The Sentinels) group on March 2, 2017. The merged group which is now called "Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen” (Support of Islam and Muslims), is led by Iyad Ag Ghaly, the former leader of Ansar Dine, and is an indication, for several views, of al-Qaeda’s influence in the region.
However, what stands out in this context is that there some approaches indicate that although al-Qaeda started to recognize that these small group seek to adapt its ideology to achieve local and specific goals, it has not attempted to deter obstruct their bid. For al-Qaeda, such bid would help it in bolstering its presence in these regions, while restraining the ability of its rival organizations, such as ISIS, to establish their own centers of terrorist activity. This trajectory is likely to be on the rise in the coming period, especially as the battle for Mosul in Iraq is coming to an end forcing ISIS militants out of the city, and the battle for Raqqa, its current main stronghold, is approaching.
Potential Impact
Despite the fact that its manpower does not exceed a few hundreds, and that is activity is still limited to northern Burkina Faso – with the exception of its attack on Malian armed forces in March 2017- the Ansarul Islam is likely to escalate its terrorist attacks in the coming period, which would impose several potential consequences.
1- Widening domestic insatiably. The potential increase in the activity of the fledgling organization would further exacerbate instability in Burkina Faso that could very well spill over to some neighboring countries. This is evidenced by the organization’s targeting of military and police forces at a time when these forces are exerting concentrated efforts to curb terrorist threats posed by other organizations that managed to carry out attacks inside the Burkinabe capital of Ouagadougou. One of those organizations were al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) that recently claimed responsibility for the January 15, 2016 attack on the Splendid Hotel in Ouagadougou that left 29 dead and 56 others wounded.
2- Cross-border Targets. The ethnic overlapping between Burkina Faso and neighboring countries can possibly lead the organization to open communication channels with other terrorist organizations on the other side of the borders, or attempting to target the security and interests of these countries. A significant instance of this is the organization’s attack that killed 11 Malian soldiers. Without a doubt, these threats will be aggravated if these organizations managed to secure support from the most influential terrorist organizations such as the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen, whose leader Iyad Ag Ghaly pointed out that the organization will likely target regional states in the coming period.
3- Establishing Rivaling Terrorist Organizations. The emergence of the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen in Burkina Faso as an ethnic-driven organization will possibly prompt other ethnic groups to establish their own terrorist and armed organizations to wage counter attacks. That is because it was not the first ethnic organizations to be created by the Fulani people, but emerged after the establishment of the Macina Liberation Movement that recently entered into an alliance with al-Qaeda.
Nevertheless, there is a likelihood of escalating competition between organizations within this same ethnic group, and more specifically between the newly-created organization and the Macina Liberation Movement, in particular, because organizations of this type embrace similar approaches and seek to achieve similar targets. Moreover, they derive their financial and human support from the same source, that is the Fula people, which can possibly lead to the weakening and gradual decline of these organizations.
