Wars have never been confined to the battlefield. Long before the first bullet is fired, a battle of a different kind unfolds in an invisible arena—the mind. The ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu eloquently captured this concept in his seminal work, The Art of War, asserting, "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."[1] This profound statement laid the groundwork for what would later become known as psychological warfare.

Psychological warfare, an age-old but constantly evolving strategy, has become a cornerstone of modern conflict. By leveraging fear, manipulation, and deception, it aims to demoralize enemies and rally support for war efforts. The 20th century saw psychological warfare emerge as the fourth arm of warfare, alongside land, sea, and air forces, fundamentally transforming combat strategies.[2]

Information Dominance

To comprehend this transformation, one must grasp the concept of "Information Dominance," a military doctrine seeking to gain strategic advantage by controlling information flow to influence adversaries' perceptions and decisions. In the 21st century, technological advancements such as social media, artificial intelligence (AI), big data analytics, and drones have amplified psychological warfare's reach and impact, making it more scalable, versatile, and precise.

These innovations have shifted the balance of information dominance, enabling smaller nations and non-state actors to conduct psychological warfare against more powerful adversaries while equipping advanced nations with additional tools in this domain.[3] The Israeli war on Gaza and the Russian war on Ukraine provide rich examples of modern psychological warfare, demonstrating the use of both traditional methods and new technologies in war settings.

Representing distinct types of warfare, these conflicts offer diverse contexts and dynamics to explore. The Gaza war exemplifies asymmetrical warfare between a non-state actor and a technologically superior military power, while the Ukrainian war illustrates symmetrical warfare between two nations with access to advanced technologies and organized military forces.

Rapid advancements in new technologies and their integration into psychological warfare underscore the importance of understanding their applications and potential impacts. This article explores recent examples of psychological warfare, assesses its applications and implications, and forecasts the future trajectory of this phenomenon.

Gaza: A War on the Body and the Soul

The ongoing war in Gaza represents one of the most intense forms of psychological warfare in recent history. Hamas, a non-state actor confined to a small territory, confronts Israel, one of the world's most technologically advanced militaries. Despite this asymmetry, Hamas has effectively penetrated Israel's psyche through meticulously orchestrated psychological operations.

Psychological warfare played a pivotal role in shaping Hamas's October 7 attacks, influencing both their timing and execution. The group capitalized on low morale within Israeli society and deep divisions among Israeli state institutions, stemming from the judicial reform crisis. Hamas launched its attacks during a moment of acute domestic vulnerability in Israel.[4]

Recognizing the improbability of maintaining territorial control over seized areas, Hamas instead focused on inflicting maximum casualties. The attacks resulted in the deaths of over 1,200 Israeli military personnel and civilians, including women and children, leaving hundreds more injured. The group's emphasis on casualties was not solely an act of violence but a calculated method of psychological warfare designed to instill fear and confusion in Israeli society.

The Israeli military's failure to prevent these attacks, combined with dramatic footage of Hamas militants breaching civilian and military installations, dealt a severe psychological blow to Israeli society. Furthermore, the group's ability to capture over 240 captives and transport them to Gaza heightened the public sense of insecurity. These events not only intensified the psychological impact but also deepened societal divisions, widening mistrust toward state political and security institutions.[5]

Digital warfare and social media tactics

Aside from the psychological dimension of its military operations, Hamas has demonstrated remarkable proficiency in digital warfare, reflecting the advancements that have redefined modern psychological warfare tactics. The organization's digital strategy has played a crucial role in infiltrating the Israeli public sphere and dismantling Israel's long-standing information dominance. Through effective utilization of social media platforms, particularly Telegram, Hamas has successfully bypassed imposed filters to communicate directly with Palestinians—both civilians and militants—as well as the Israeli public. For years, Israelis had been shielded from Palestinian narratives and exposed only to military-approved content from Israeli authorities, but Hamas's digital tactics have challenged this information control.

Hamas's digital messaging strategy rests on two key pillars. First, the group exploits the Israeli hostages' situation by releasing emotionally charged videos showing hostages pleading with Israeli society and government institutions to end the war and secure their release, while blaming Israel's ongoing war for their continued captivity.[6] Second, Hamas focuses on documenting its military operations against Israeli forces, primarily targeting the Palestinian audience. Such videos are designed to showcase Hamas's resilience on the battlefield, even against Israel's overwhelming firepower, thus bolstering support and morale among Palestinians.[7]

Hamas's well-executed psychological digital warfare strategy, combined with its continued holding of hostages, has been highly effective in amplifying the group's ability to target Israeli society and influence its behavior continuously. The psychological impact of this strategy is evident in the weekly demonstrations in Tel Aviv demanding a ceasefire deal to end the war and secure the release of hostages, underscoring the success of Hamas's psychological warfare in shifting public sentiment.

Israel's psychological warfare response

Meanwhile, following the Hamas-led October 7 attacks, Israel launched a "revenge war" against the entirety of the Gazan population, civilians and militants alike. By mobilizing its entire military and technological superiority and near-total dominance over Gaza's land, sea, air, and cyberspace, Israel has systematically and indiscriminately targeted both the bodies and minds of the Palestinians. Beyond its publicly stated military objectives, the Israeli war carries a psychological dimension that parallels the 80,000 tons of bombs it has dropped on Gaza.[8]

At the core of Israel's psychological warfare strategy is the use of excessive military force, characterized by mass casualties, repeated forced displacement, indiscriminate bombings, and the systematic destruction of civilian and vital infrastructures. These actions create a constant atmosphere of fear and vulnerability, with Gaza's residents living under the perpetual threat of death. Alongside this violence, Israel's weaponization of humanitarian aid further intensifies the psychological toll. By deliberately restricting essential supplies—particularly in northern Gaza—Israel has pushed the population to the brink of starvation, deepening feelings of powerlessness and despair among an already struggling civilian population.[9]

AI-powered surveillance and information dominance

In addition to military force, Israel's psychological warfare strategy heavily relies on asserting information dominance through AI-powered surveillance and big data technologies, complementing its military force. These advanced systems track Palestinian users' online activities and monitor the Gazan population's movements via drones and phone signals, assigning 'threat scores' to individuals.[10] Not only does this system generate lists of potential targets in Gaza, but it also serves as a powerful psychological tool, instilling fear and uncertainty by placing every resident's life at the mercy of AI-driven assessments, often executed through remotely controlled drones.

Moreover, Israel's integration of AI technologies into the digital space further extends its information dominance beyond traditional security surveillance. Sophisticated AI-powered algorithms enable real-time monitoring and analysis of vast amounts of social media activity, allowing for swift and effective responses to online conversations. Through the crafting of tailored messages, Israel maintains control over the war narrative, targeting Palestinians, Israelis, and the international community with distinct messaging designed to serve different strategic purposes.

Dehumanization and visual propaganda

A key component of Israel's psychological warfare through information dominance involves the deliberate dissemination of visual materials that dehumanize the Palestinian population. Israeli soldiers frequently post on social media, documenting the mistreatment of Palestinian detainees, the destruction of entire neighborhoods, and the looting of homes, often presented in a casual or even celebratory manner. Such strategically circulated images are intended to reinforce a narrative of powerlessness and control, emphasizing the limited agency Palestinians have over their lives and property in the face of Israel's unchecked actions.[11]

The Israeli war, with its psychological and military dimensions, has left massive destruction, casualties, and a deeply demoralized society struggling to envision a future in the Strip, even once the conflict ends. Notably, the destruction of schools, hospitals, and other vital infrastructure was not meant for military purposes but rather to instill despair and instability, serving Israel's strategic goal of encouraging the "voluntary resettlement" of Gaza's population.

Ukraine: A Digitally-Powered Territorial War

The Ukrainian War stands as a critical case study in the evolution of psychological warfare, particularly within the context of modern symmetrical conflicts and emerging technologies. At its core, the war encompasses a fierce battle for information dominance, where disinformation, cyberattacks, and deepfakes are strategically deployed to manipulate morale, shape perceptions, and influence decision-making on both sides. Not only has this conflict pushed the boundaries of psychological warfare, but it also offers crucial insights into its future trajectory, especially in the age of AI and digital warfare.

Russia initiated its psychological warfare campaign well before the first physical shots were fired, leveraging its extensive experience in disinformation and cyberspace operations. These pre-emptive information attacks were strategically designed to destabilize Ukraine and condition both the Ukrainian and Russian populations for the upcoming conflict. Moscow framed the invasion as a "special military operation," aiming to downplay the conflict's severity in the minds of its own people while portraying the Ukrainian government as a Nazi-leaning regime that posed a direct threat to Russian national security. Through this narrative, the Kremlin successfully created a sense of urgency and national unity, rallying the majority of Russians behind its war efforts.

Escalation of psychological operations

As the invasion commenced, Russia escalated its psychological operations against both Ukrainian forces and civilians through highly coordinated and scalable tactics. Ukrainian soldiers received text messages urging them to defect and surrender to Russian forces, while civilians faced automated calls warning of imminent bombings in their areas and urging evacuation. Simultaneously, reports of Russian military advances and claims of Ukrainian forces defecting circulated widely across social media, amplifying confusion and attempting to erode morale among both military and civilian populations.

A notable example of Russia's disinformation tactics emerged in the form of a deepfake video featuring President Volodymyr Zelensky. Broadcast on major Ukrainian TV stations and news networks, the video depicted Zelensky urging Ukrainian forces to surrender. Although quickly debunked, this sophisticated ploy illustrated the complex and far-reaching nature of Russia's psychological operations.[12]

Cyberattacks and AI-powered disinformation

In cyberspace, Russia has deployed AI-powered bot networks to inundate platforms like X (formerly Twitter) with pro-Russian content, amplifying narratives of military successes and propagating disinformation about Ukrainian forces. These sophisticated bots, meticulously designed to mimic real users, have played a pivotal role in disseminating false reports of Ukrainian military defections and exaggerating Russian advances.[13]

Concurrently, Russia launched a series of cyberattacks targeting Ukraine's critical infrastructure, ranging from power grids and communication networks to government websites and banking systems. These digital assaults aimed not only to cripple Ukraine's operational capabilities but also to project an image of Russian technological supremacy, further eroding Ukrainian confidence in their state's ability to resist.[14]

In response to Russia's psychological operations, Ukrainian authorities implemented a defensive strategy focused on countering Russia's narrative dominance and bolstering cyber resilience. Ukrainian officials, including government leaders and state institutions, established a robust presence on social media platforms, providing consistent updates on military developments and the continued functioning of government bodies. A cornerstone of this strategy was President Zelensky's daily press conferences from Kyiv, which became instrumental in Ukraine's efforts to reassure the public and maintain their morale in the face of ongoing cyber and information warfare.

Ukraine actively monitored Russian online information activities regarding the war's progression, countering them through an extensive network of official and non-official social media accounts and channels.[15] As part of its counteroffensive, Ukraine released videos and images of Russian soldiers, either killed or captured, demonstrating military strength and challenging Russia's narrative of rapid Ukrainian military collapse.

In addition to information warfare, Kyiv focused on addressing cybersecurity vulnerabilities amid Russia's sophisticated cyberattacks. With support from Western allies and major tech companies, Ukraine received updated technologies and cyber defense assistance. Despite initial setbacks and the continued threat of Russian cyber operations, Ukraine successfully mitigated the impact of Russian advances in the digital space, protecting critical infrastructure and maintaining operational security.[16]

Shift to offensive psychological warfare

As the war progressed and Russia faced mounting challenges in achieving its objectives, Ukraine shifted from a defensive to a more offensive psychological strategy. This included conducting drone attacks in the Russian capital, Moscow, which had a significant psychological impact by expanding the conflict into Russian territory and heightening the sense of vulnerability among Moscow's residents.[17]

By August 2024, Ukraine further escalated its offensive warfare by launching cross-border incursions into Russia's Kursk region, advancing approximately 1,000 square kilometers into Russian territory. While primarily military in nature, these actions carried a significantly greater psychological impact than their territorial gains. The incursions aimed to challenge Russia's narrative of military dominance, create a perception of mutual vulnerability, and sow doubts among the Russian public about the effectiveness of the ongoing war effort.[18]

Conclusion: : The Future of Psychological Warfare

Technological advancements have profoundly transformed psychological warfare in the modern era. Small nations and non-state actors now possess the ability to overcome information filtering and challenge the dominance of more powerful adversaries, as evidenced in the Gaza war. Simultaneously, technologically advanced militaries like Israel have deployed new tools that automate violence, target mass populations, and turn war zones into experimental grounds for future warfare technologies. These innovations not only amplify violence but also manipulate perceptions, blurring the lines between reality and disinformation through tactics such as deepfakes.

Russia's manipulation of reality in Ukraine has demonstrated how these technologies can distort truth and shape narratives. Conversely, Ukraine's resilience in defending against Russia's sophisticated cyberattacks highlights the effectiveness of advanced cyber defense technologies and exposes the limitations of cyberattacks.

Looking ahead, the increasing use of drones, big data, AI, virtual reality, deepfakes, and other rapidly advancing technologies will continue to reshape psychological warfare. These developments enable smaller actors to conduct psychological operations while simultaneously advancing the information dominance of stronger ones. Ultimately, the future of warfare will be shaped not only by physical confrontations but by the strategic utilization of new technologies to define reality itself.