Donald Trump's return to the White House casts a shadow over the global climate community and the outcomes of the COP29 summit, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22, 2024. The climate summit had already witnessed deep disagreements between developed and developing nations over funding. In this turbulent global context, Trump's victory represents a seismic shift in the climate action landscape, threatening to reverse years of hard-won progress and international cooperation.
As the largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases, the United States under Trump's leadership appears poised to abandon its moral and practical responsibilities in combating the climate crisis. Trump's skepticism about climate change, which he has labeled a "hoax," signals a dangerous retreat in U.S. climate policy. His pledge to withdraw from the Paris Agreement for the second time—and potentially even exit the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) entirely—could deliver a fatal blow to global climate diplomacy.
Trump's retreat comes at a critical juncture, as the world struggles to meet the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The implications of his victory extend far beyond U.S. borders, with particularly severe consequences for developing nations and vulnerable communities on the frontlines of the climate crisis. Potential cuts to international climate funding and resistance to ambitious emission reduction targets under his administration threaten to exacerbate existing inequalities, leaving those least responsible for climate change to bear its heaviest burdens.
This article explores how Trump's climate agenda could worsen existing challenges, particularly in Africa, and what this means for the continent's future.
Trump’s Climate Stance
Donald Trump, an outspoken skeptic of climate change, has consistently labeled it a "hoax" and dismissed concerns about rising sea levels as exaggerated. His administration's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017 clearly indicated his climate policy vision: prioritizing short-term economic gains over long-term environmental sustainability. Throughout his first term, Trump rolled back numerous regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, favoring the fossil fuel industry and undermining global efforts to combat climate change. In 2020, the Brookings Institution counted 74 actions by the Trump administration that weakened environmental protections in the U.S., largely driven by the America First Energy Plan. The plan was designed to revive and empower the fossil fuel value chain in the U.S., including measures such as reopening coal mines, lifting restrictions on oil drilling, and reducing climate and environmental regulations.
During the presidential race, Trump reiterated his stance on climate change, dismissing its urgency for the United States. He claimed, "The ocean will drop by a hundredth of an inch over the next four hundred years." Such statements underscore a profound misunderstanding of the pressing need for climate action and its global ramifications. As Trump contemplates potentially withdrawing from international agreements once more, regions already grappling with climate impacts—particularly Africa—could face severe consequences.
Policy Shifts
Trump's return to the presidency carries significant implications for climate change, particularly regarding the U.S. role in global climate initiatives. His administration is expected to prioritize fossil fuel production, as outlined in Project 2025, which emphasizes "unleashing American energy production to lower energy prices."
The proposed agenda includes plans to dismantle or downsize critical federal agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), both of which play vital roles in disaster management and climate research. Trump's approach could reverse decarbonization policies, cut public investments in climate research, and potentially withdraw from international commitments aimed at mitigating climate change.
Consequences of such actions are severe, particularly for vulnerable regions like Africa, which is already experiencing the harsh impacts of climate change despite its minimal contribution to global emissions. However, according to estimates by the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa, Trump's climate policies may be shaped by conflicting forces that could temper his pro-fossil fuel stance. Domestically, the economic benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act, which drives clean energy investments, cannot be ignored.
The Inflation Reduction Act is projected to generate $5 trillion in economic benefits by 2050, while reducing pollution, improving health outcomes, and decreasing greenhouse emissions by 43% by 2030. Simultaneously, climate-related disasters have exacted a heavy toll on the United States, costing $2.785 trillion and claiming nearly 17,000 lives since 1980. These stark realities, combined with the geopolitical imperative of decarbonization, are propelling global powers like Europe and China to prioritize green growth as a strategy for economic and strategic dominance.
Influential figures such as Elon Musk, a vocal advocate for low-carbon solutions and a Trump ally, could significantly shape the administration's stance. Although Trump may initially pursue fossil fuel-friendly policies and potentially withdraw from the Paris Agreement, economic and geopolitical pressures may ultimately steer his administration toward clean energy policies.
The table below outlines 12 expected changes in climate policies during Trump’s second term:
Proposed Change | Content | Impact | |
1 | Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement | Re-withdrawal from the 2015 agreement aimed at limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C. Argentina may follow suit. | Weakens global climate commitments and reduces U.S. leadership in climate action. |
2 | Expansion of Oil and Gas Exploration | Expanding drilling on federal lands and waters, including the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska’s National Wildlife Refuge. | Increases greenhouse gas emissions and threatens sensitive ecosystems. |
3 | Weakening Power Plant Regulations | Reducing emission standards for gas and coal plants and lowering requirements for cleaner energy production. | Increases emissions and negatively impacts public health. |
4 | Repeal of Methane Fees | Eliminating penalties for oil and gas companies that fail to reduce methane emissions. | Increases methane emissions, a potent greenhouse gas. |
5 | Ending Clean Energy Subsidies | Cutting funding allocated by the Inflation Reduction Act for clean energy technologies like electric vehicles and green hydrogen. | Slows the transition to clean energy and impacts U.S. states benefiting from subsidies. |
6 | Reduction of National Monuments | Downsizing protected areas in Utah, such as Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante, to allow mining and vehicle use. | Threatens biodiversity and cultural heritage. |
7 | Resuming LNG Export Permits | Restarting permits for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, increasing emissions for decades. | Reinforces long-term reliance on fossil fuels. |
8 | Ending Environmental Justice Initiatives | Terminating the "Justice40" initiative, which allocates 40% of federal investments to communities affected by pollution. | Reduces support for communities most impacted by pollution. |
9 | Weakening Endangered Species Protections | Reducing rules protecting rare plants and animals and considering economic factors in decision-making. | Leads to biodiversity loss and benefits oil and timber industries. |
10 | Repealing Corporate Climate Disclosure Rules | Halting rules requiring companies to disclose climate risks and emissions, abandoning SEC requirements. | Reduces corporate accountability for climate risks. |
11 | Rolling Back Vehicle Emission Standards | Loosening federal and California emission standards and slowing the transition to electric vehicles. | Slows electric vehicle adoption and creates market uncertainty for automakers. |
12 | Freezing Federal Clean Energy Purchases | Revoking Biden’s executive order for federal carbon neutrality by 2050 and halting government clean energy procurement. | Reduces demand for green technologies and delays federal emission reductions. |
Source: Prepared by the author based on a report by The Washington Post, dated November 19, 2024.
Climate Threats to Africa
Africa faces numerous climate-related threats, including extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and food insecurity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that without significant global efforts to reduce emissions, the continent could experience severe droughts, floods, and heatwaves, threatening livelihoods and exacerbating poverty.
Many African nations rely on rain-fed agriculture, which has become increasingly unpredictable due to shifting weather patterns. While Trump dismisses the importance of climate change, African farmers are already experiencing the devastating effects of irregular rainfall and prolonged droughts. Countries like Ethiopia and Sudan, for instance, have faced recurrent droughts, leading to crop failures and food shortages.
Trump's potential rollback of U.S. funding for international climate initiatives could hinder critical support for African nations adapting to these challenges. Historically, the U.S. has played a significant role in funding climate resilience projects across the continent. Cuts to this assistance could leave many countries without the resources needed to implement adaptation strategies or invest in sustainable infrastructure.
Furthermore, Trump's pro-fossil fuel stance could have broader economic implications for Africa. The continent is rich in renewable energy potential—from solar power in the Sahara to wind energy along its coasts—but requires investment and technology transfer from developed nations to harness these resources effectively. Trump's focus on expanding fossil fuel production in the U.S. could hinder international cooperation on renewable energy initiatives.
If Trump follows through on his promise to withdraw from international agreements like the Paris Agreement, it could undermine global commitments to reducing emissions and supporting clean energy transitions. Such a move would be particularly harmful to African nations striving to meet their climate goals while balancing economic development needs.
A Perilous Future
Donald Trump's upcoming second term, with its promised anti-climate agenda, poses profound consequences for Africa and other regions most affected by climate change. His dismissal of climate change as an urgent issue threatens not only U.S. domestic policy but also global efforts to combat one of humanity's greatest challenges.
Africa, already grappling with significant vulnerabilities, faces the risk of exacerbated crises related to food security, water scarcity, and economic instability if international support is withdrawn. However, Trump's rhetoric, while pointing to a bleak future for global climate action, also presents an opportunity for other nations to reaffirm their commitment to sustainability and resilience.
Combating climate change demands collective action that transcends political shifts. Leaders worldwide must prioritize cooperation over isolationism. Africa's future hinges on its ability to adapt to changing circumstances while advocating for fair solutions on the global stage.
As we confront an uncertain future shaped by narrow political decisions, our commitment to protecting the planet and its most vulnerable populations must remain steadfast. Climate change is truly everyone's problem, requiring a united global response that transcends individual national interests.
