Iranian news agencies on December 4 reported that a blast occurred in the skies over a nuclear site in Natanz, central Isfahan province. The incident raised questions about the nature and potential implications. There were further debates about whether or not Israel was behind a potential attack on the nuclear site, especially because it was involved in two previous attacks on the same site. 

Conflicting Iranian accounts

What really happened at the Natanz nuclear facility is still not clear. Iran presented conflicting accounts of the incident, it is hard to confirm whether there was an attack in the first place, and whether Israel was involved in it or not. The following points outline an explanation.

1.     Conflicting news reports:

Iran came out with different versions of the same incident. Iranian official sources did not immediately explain why the blast took place. Iranian Students' News Agency said that local sources have reported hearing a large explosion in the Natanz sky. It added that "no official source has yet confirmed or denied the report." The semi-official Fars news agency quoted a reporter in nearby Badroud as saying an intense light had been seen and a blast rang out.

Later, Daneshjoo news agency reported that two drones were flying in the sky over the Natanz nuclear facility and that after the Iranian air defense targeted one of them, a blast was heard. Residents of the city reported seeing an object exploding in the sky.

Some official media outlets reported that the explosion was not caused by an attack, but was a controlled test that was conducted by the Iranian air defense, which fired a missile towards a drone as part of a rapid response test of its defense capabilities to counter potential attacks.

2.     Israeli previous attacks:

In the past years, Iran's nuclear facilities were targeted by sabotage operations carried out by Israel. Some of these attacks were conducted in collaboration with the United States. Additionally, Israel is believed to have been involved in assassinating a number of Iranian nuclear scientists.

The two most high-profile attacks hit the Natanz facility in July 2020 and April 2021. In June 2021, the TESA factory, which produces centrifuges for uranium enrichment, was attacked. In November 2020, Iran' top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, regarded as the chief of Iran's nuclear program, was assasinated.

3.     Faltering nuclear talks:

The latest incident coincided with the seventh round of the faltering nuclear talks between Iran, the US and other major powers parties to the nuclear deal, which are currently being held in Vienna. This is the first round of talks to be held after Ebrahim Raisi assumed office as Iran's new president.

On December 2, Israel rejected the talks and called for a more deterrent action against Iran in response to Tehran's nuclear blackmail. Western sources reported that Iran is procrastinating to buy time and further enhance its uranium enrichment capability to up to 60 percent, after it went over the agreed levels set by the 2015 deal.

Israel's potential involvement

Unconfirmed reports claimed that Israel was behind the latest incident at the Natanz facility. The claims were based on Israel's previous sabotage operations against Iran, as well as relevant statements made by Israeli officials. This can be outlined as follows:

1.     Tel Aviv's ambivalent reaction:

Israel's military officials neither confirmed nor denied involvement in the most recent incident. Commenting on the explosion at Natanz, Israeli Deputy Defense Minister Alon Schuster, on December 2, said that Iran is a problem for the whole world, and not only the State of Israel. The official added that Israel has a duty to be brave and responsible for the fate of its people. Although he stressed that Israel is intensifying efforts to bring about a change in the motivations of the whole world through diplomatic means, Shuster further stressed that Israel has used force against Israel's enemies in the past and that Israelis are convinced that in extreme situations, there is a need to act using military means.

2.     Keeping military action on the table:

Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennette warned the US and other major powers that a bad deal with the Iranians will have implications for Israel's national security.

Israeli Air Force Chief Amikam Norkin threatened that Israel's army will do whatever is required to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb. Defense Minister Benny Gantz did not rule out the possibility that Israel will have to take action in order to prevent a nuclear Iran.

To show that it is serious about carrying out military attacks against Iran's nuclear facilities, Israel conducted joint military offensive and defensive exercises with the US and regional countries in recent months.

In remarks during a ceremony to accept the credentials of the new US Ambassador Tom Nides, Israeli President Isaac Herzog warned the US that Israel will protect itself and that if the international community does not take a vigorous stance on Iran's nuclear ambitions, Israel will do so.

On his part, Ambassador Nides stressed that the US is committed to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

3.     Revealing details of previous attacks on Iran:

The Jewish Chronicle, in an exclusive report, published documents showing that Israel was behind an explosion in the nuclear facility in Natanz. To carry out the attack earlier this year, Israel recruited Iranian nuclear scientists and used drones to demolish of 90 per cent of the centrifuges at the nuclear plant, delaying Iran's progress towards a bomb and putting the key complex out of action for up to nine months.

The report said that Iranian agents recruited by the Israeli Mossad hid explosives in building materials used to construct the Natanz centrifuge hall as long ago as 2019, then triggered them in two blasts in 2020 and 2021. Moreover, the Mossad agents sneaked an armed quadcopter into Iran piece by piece, and used it to launch missiles at the TESA site in Karaj in June.

4.     Israeli budget for attacking Iran:

Israel approved a budget of some 5 billion shekels (USD 1.5 billion) for preparing the military for a potential strike against Iran's nuclear program. The funds will be used to enhance Israel's capabilities through the use of various types of aircraft, drones and unique armaments to target heavily fortified underground sites.

Washington's disagreement with Tel Aviv

US newspapers published leaked intelligence reports adopting negative assessments of the effectiveness of Israel's sabotage operations against Iran's nuclear program. The reports suggest that the operations backfired, apparently showing that the US is trying to deter Israel from continuing such operations during the seventh round of the Vienna nuclear talks. However, despite this disagreement, Israel and the US agree on keeping military action on the table. This can be outlined in the following points:

1.     Disagreement between Israel and the US:

Iran's nuclear program was the main issues marring relations between the US and Israel. Relations between the two allies deteriorated under former US President Barack Obama after he reached a nuclear deal with Iran in 2015, because Israel believes that the Iranian nuclear program is an existential threat. Recently, a new US-Israeli disagreement surfaced about the effectiveness of the nuclear talks. While the Biden Administration wants to revive the nuclear deal from which former President Donald Trump withdrew, Israel insists that the talks should be halted and threatens to use military power against Iran's nuclear ambitions.

2.     Washington threatening to use non-diplomatic means:

The Biden Administration expressed resentment from Iran's procrastination after the seventh round of international nuclear talks failed to move forward. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the new Iranian administration did not come to Vienna with constructive proposals. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that if the path to a return to compliance with the agreement turns out to be a dead-end, the US will pursue other options. But Blinken did not present further details.

3.     Continuous Israeli pressure:

Mossad chief David Barnea and Defense Minister Benny Gantz are heading to Washington for talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. The meetings appear to be aimed at influencing the US position on the nuclear talks, or discussing alternative policies that would replace diplomacy. In the meantime, Israel is making intensified diplomatic efforts to mobilize European allies against Iran. This was the aim of Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid's visits to Paris and London.

In conclusion, it is still not clear whether Israel was behind a potential attack on the Natanz nuclear facility, or whether Iran's air defense systems were able to counter the alleged attack, even though it is clear now that Iran has been dragging foot and stalling throughout the seventh round of the nuclear talks, while it continues to enrich uranium.