French President Emmanuel Macron faces a challenging political landscape following the first round of the parliamentary elections (National Assembly) held on June 30, where his centrist coalition suffered a significant setback. Macron is up against two formidable adversaries that optimism and self-confidence alone cannot defeat: the populist far-right, led by the National Rally party (Rassemblement National), and the New Popular Union coalition, which includes the Socialists, the far-left, and the Greens, spearheaded by La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) under Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a vocal critic of the Élysée’s policies.
In the first round, the centrist Together alliance, led by Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and of which Macron is a member, secured only 20.8% of the vote, placing them third behind the National Rally with 33.1% and the New Popular Union with approximately 28%. This situation raises several critical questions about Macron's ability to prevent the far-right from forming the next government, the potential outcomes for France after the second round of voting on July 7, and the concerns among many in Europe and the Arab world regarding the prospect of the far-right gaining power in Paris. Additionally, it remains uncertain whether Macron has the capacity to call for early elections to stop the far-right from leading the only nuclear-armed state in the European Union.
Rise of the Far-Right
More than 50 years ago, in 1972, Jean-Marie Le Pen founded the National Front party alongside veterans of the Algerian War. It is unlikely he envisioned his party emerging as a dominant force in French politics, let alone leading in the European Parliament and vying for a majority in the French National Assembly. When Le Pen ran for president in 1974, he garnered less than 1% of the vote, with his ideas largely rejected by the French populace. Fast forward to today, and the populist right-wing party, now rebranded as the National Rally in 2018, is on the verge of seizing power in Paris. In the European Parliament elections held on June 9, they secured nearly 31.4% of the French seats. Currently, the party is spearheaded by Le Pen's daughter, Marine Le Pen, with young Jordan Bardella taking over the leadership in 2021.
Several factors have led to the rise of the populist far-right in France, including:
Despite the strong performance of the French economy over the past three years, French voters have been grappling with rising inflation rates and declining purchasing power. This issue has been a major focus for the National Rally in both the European Parliament elections and the first round of the National Assembly elections this year.
The situation has been exacerbated by a significant increase in energy prices and limited access to medical services in remote areas. The economic downturn began with the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted supply chains and weakened the economy. The crisis was further intensified by the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war, leading to sharp rises in energy prices, particularly electricity and heating costs during the winter.
Residents in remote areas have felt neglected by President Macron, especially as the unemployment rate soared to about 25% last year. This neglect is evident in the struggles of French citizens to afford housing, the closure of schools due to budget cuts, and the shutdown of small health centers.
2- Lack of security:
France has witnessed a significant decline in the sense of security, especially among women in areas with escalating crime rates. Many French women are voicing concerns over the increasing number of individuals loitering in the streets, a stark contrast to the once prevalent feeling of safety in cities and towns across the country.
3- Protest against the pension law:
All indications suggest that President Macron is facing backlash for his determination to pass the new pension law, which raised the retirement age from 62 to 64 years. This decision has encountered opposition, even from long-time supporters who have backed Macron since 2017.
4- Cost of transition to a green economy:
In 2019, centrist, leftist, and green parties in France, which championed a green economy, significantly increased their influence. However, in this year's European Parliament and French National Assembly elections, voters rejected this agenda, citing a reduction in their standard of living without noticeable benefits.
5- Flexibility of the National Rally:
In contrast to the rigidity of the centrist coalition and French leftist and green parties, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella have successfully presented a new face for the National Rally. For example, the far-right party no longer advocates for leaving the European Union but rather for reforming its institutions and reducing French contributions to the EU by about two billion euros. Le Pen, once seen as a supporter of Russia, now calls for supporting Ukraine without, nonetheless, sending weapons that strike Russian territory. The French far-right has thus avoided controversial issues that could weaken its electoral prospects.
6- Nationalism with a new face:
One of the most effective strategies employed by the far-right and the right-wing faction of the Republicans in France is their presentation of a nationalist narrative with a veneer of sophistication. For instance, the far-right tackles the issue of French identity by opposing the granting of citizenship to children born to illegal immigrant parents. Additionally, they advocate for prioritizing jobs and services for native French citizens over recent immigrants who have acquired citizenship. These positions resonate strongly with French voters who have experienced significant economic hardships in recent years.
Six Scenarios
In light of the National Assembly election results, France faces several scenarios, the most prominent of which are the following:
This scenario envisions Macron's camp, led by Prime Minister Attal, forming a coalition with the New Popular Union to create a unified bloc against the National Rally in the parliament. Macron's camp secured around 20% of the votes, while the New Popular Union garnered about 28%.
However, this coalition faces many challenges due to the diverse composition of the New Popular Union, which includes socialists, the far-left, and the greens. Despite previously running together in European Parliament and National Assembly elections, their differing views on cooperating with the centrist coalition led by Attal jeopardize any potential future collaboration. Furthermore, these internal disagreements threaten the cohesion of the New Popular Union itself, potentially leading to the departure of the France Unbowed party, headed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a leftist leader and strong opponent of Élysée policies.
2- Article 8 of the constitution:
Article 8 of the Constitution clearly states that the President appoints the Prime Minister, but it does not specify the criteria for doing so. This ambiguity allows President Macron to potentially bypass the National Rally, led by Bardella, if a coalition of centrists and leftists holds more seats than the National Rally after the final vote count on July 7. Macron has two potential paths to implement this scenario:
3- Coordination against the National Rally:
This scenario involves strategic coordination in the second round between Attal’s coalition and the socialists, greens, and leftists to prevent the National Rally from securing additional victories. Such an alliance would position the New Popular Union as the leading bloc, rather than the National Rally, with Macron offering this coalition the position of Prime Minister. Political coexistence would be more feasible between Macron, the socialists, the left, and the greens compared to the extreme National Rally.
Indicators of this scenario unfolding, either fully or partially, include over 210 candidates from Macron’s coalition and the New Popular Union withdrawing to form a united front against the far-right in the second round. This would leave only about 100 candidates out of the 311 who participated in the first round. The more withdrawals there are, the lower the chances of the far-right achieving a 289-seat majority in the 577-seat parliament. Without this majority, Macron would not be compelled to appoint Bardella as Prime Minister.
4- Forced coexistence:
In this scenario, the National Rally secures a parliamentary majority, leaving Macron with no choice but to "coexist" with a far-right government.
5- Deadlock:
This scenario arises when none of the three coalitions achieves the largest bloc or a parliamentary majority, making the National Rally a "blocking bloc" in parliament. Such a situation could lead to unprecedented political stagnation and decision-making paralysis.
6- End of Macronism:
Despite the current French President's firm stance on serving his term until 2027, his political maneuvering failures and the unnecessary call for early elections might compel Macron to step down. The French constitution prohibits early elections before June 2025, which could potentially mark the end of the "Macron era" that began with the 2017 elections and brought together centrist right and left factions in recent years.
In conclusion, for the first time since the end of World War II, France teeters on the edge as the far-right edges closer to the Élysée Palace, poised to potentially alter the nation's longstanding image as a beacon of freedom and tolerance. This shift comes amid the far-right's calls to halt immigration, deport migrants, ban headscarves, and reduce France's financial contributions to EU institutions. Even if the far-right does not form the next French government, its influence within parliament and other governing bodies has become an undeniable reality.
