The COVID-19 pandemic is having widespread economic, social, and political impact on Latin America and the Caribbean, creating an even more delicate situation in the region. As a result, pandemic-related protests erupted in several countries such as Colombia, Brazil and lately, Cuba. After six decades of rule, the stability of Cuba´s Communist Party is facing a series of anti-government protests all over the island.

Originally, the protests started in what appeared to be a spontaneous act in San Antonio de los Baños, a small town 35 kilometres away from Cuba's capital city, Havana. However, a recent investigation conducted by non-state Cuban outlet, El Estornudo, and confirmed by Reuters, showed that the first protest was convened online the day before July 10th in a Facebook group called “City of Humor”^[1]. In addition, the investigation reveals how the Cuban diaspora encouraged the protesters and expressed solidarity through social media.

Although the first protest was strategically planned, it did trigger a spontaneous effect on the rest of the island. In a matter of a few hours after the first images were posted on social media from the demonstrations in San Antonio de los Baños, Havana´s main streets became the epicentre of the protests involving thousands of Cubans. Overall, protests were reported in more than 20 towns and cities across the island, accounting for at least one rally in each province.

Both on the streets and online, Cubans were voicing their demands, expressing their anger and frustration. And for the first time, social media was instrumentalized for that purpose by expanding the message, making visible the protester´s situation and encouraging other Cubans to reproduce pacific demonstrations in the rest of the country. Nevertheless, the virtual movement suffered two major setbacks; the spread of fake news and the internet shutdown.

As for the first one, misleading information was used from both ends, either to magnify the demonstrations or to undermine the anti-government movement^[2]. The second one is related to the lack of access to the internet was reported in different regions of Cuba. The monitoring site NetBlocks reported that the Internet had been restricted on the island, mainly for platforms such as WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram and Telegram from the servers of the state provider, belonging to the Etecsa company^[3]. The government has not yet acknowledged the incident nor the claims -made by protesters- that it was intended to silence the demonstrations.

Reasons behind the Demonstrations

The protests were the opportunity for citizens to vent their frustrations, which covered a wide range of topics, having the government at the centre of those claims. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the already existing problems in the island.

Cuba is facing a food and medicine shortage alongside energy outages, aggravated all by the COVID-19 pandemic. Several factors have contributed to the current situation.

1.  Initially, Cuba’s public health response to the pandemic kept cases and deaths low, but both increased in late 2020 and have surged in 2021. Cuba is currently the place with the highest number of infections by population level in the entire continent and one of the first in the world^[4]. Cuba has developed two vaccines and, as of August 5, 2021, had fully vaccinated 24% of its population. Shortage on syringes and other medical supplies has made unachievable the goal of having 70% by the end of August.

2.   Another factor has been the "Ordering Task", an economic restructuring plan implemented at the beginning of the year, which aimed to promote work, raise wages and strengthen dollarization. Consequently, triggering inflation and aggravating the food, energy, medicine and basic products shortage. Economists such as Pavel Vidal, from the Javeriana University of Cali, estimate that inflation could rise between 500% and 900% in the coming months^[5].

Foreign currency, mostly from tourism and remittances, becomes crucial to maintain the fragile economy. Regarding tourism -responsible for 10% of the country's GDP- travel restrictions implemented to contain the spread of the virus has had a direct impact on the economy; by February 2021, there had been a 95.5% drop compared to numbers from the previous year^[6].

As for the second, the economist Carmelo Mesa-Lago says that around 65% of Cubans receive remittances in dollars, mostly from the United States. The money sent by their relatives is used to buy essential goods on a daily basis. Remittance income has been limited since last November due to a restriction imposed by Trump before leaving the presidential post, that prevented money from being sent to Cuba through entities controlled by the Cuban military, such as Western Union, practically the only U.S.-to-Cuba provider of remittance payments^[7].

According to official figures, Cuba's economy contracted over 11% of GDP, the country's worst records since the “special period” in 1994 when the economy collapsed after the withdrawal of financial support from the Soviet Union.

The six-decades U.S. embargo on Cuba has also played a major role in the course of the economy in the country. Official information reveals that between April 2019 and December 2020, the United States blockade caused losses in the order of 9,157 million dollars^[8]. The ban from the US to import Cuban goods has larger ramifications, such as discouraging foreign investment or the country's inability to trade globally, which has led the country to depend on a few allies, like Russia, China and Spain.

3.  The third reason behind the protests is related to the state control with no margin for popular expression. Traditionally, the Cuban government has tightly controlled public spaces, saying unity is key to resisting coup attempts by its long-standing adversary, the United States. Any form of political opposition would be taken as a threat to the revolution, the ultimate cause for every Cuban, manifested in the slogan “homeland or death”, coined by its former leader, Fidel Castro. For the first time since the 1959 revolution, thousands of Cubans took the streets last July 11th and shouted a new version of the slogan; "homeland and life" inspired by a song composed by Cubans to express their grievances.

These types of mobilizations are unusual in Cuba because opposition to the government is not allowed. A few small-scale protests have been carried out before, even upholding the same demands. In that context, the “Maleconazo” uprising took place in 1994, during the special period of economic collapse. The instrumentalization of social media for mobilizing and promoting across the country turned a town demonstration into a national protest gaining massive participation, making it unprecedented in Cuba´s recent history.

What are the Expected Outcomes?

The possible scenarios that could come out from the demonstrations relies on both internal and external policy. The first one consists of analysing the president of Cuba, Miguel Mario Diaz-Canel's approach towards the demands and solutions that can provide.

From invalidating the protests´ demands and calling them “counterrevolutionaries” on national broadcast, Diaz-Canel has moderated the discourse to acknowledge the diversity of the protesters and validate some of their complaints. In addition, several measures previously claimed by the Cubans were announced making it clear they were not the result of the rallies^[9].

However, those measures such as lifting the limit of food, medicine and hygiene supplies travellers can bring to the country reflects how the government keeps depending on the Cuban diaspora to fill in the gap they are accounted for. Similar approach can be perceived as the humanitarian aid arrived the following days from Mexico, Nicaragua and Russia.

Official discourse has also shifted towards US which tended to blame the embargo for its current economic problems; being more critical on its own responsibility for the economic decline^[10]. According to Michael Bustamante, Latin American university professor, the possible outcome would depend on the persistence of the anti-government movement.

So far, protests were registered only on July 11 and the following days. Within a week, the protests spaced out. Cubans went to the streets to express their discontent, without any intention to negotiate with the government, as the Cuban newspaper El Toque explains.

As for the US role, lifting the blockade is not a possible. However, experts agree that Biden could at least go back to the Barack-era where several sanctions were lifted. As part of his presidential campaign, Biden promised to lift up the 243 sanctions imposed by Trump, former president. Since most of them were approved as executive orders, Biden could have reversed them the same way, without requiring Congress´ support.

So far, sanctions have not been removed^[11] and analysts confirm it´s related more to domestic policy. In every election, securing votes in Florida plays a critical role in close votes, home to Cuban Americans and other Hispanic immigrant groups. Looking towards the 2022 election, "an unpopular move on Cuba could push even more of those votes to the Republican side," said Sebastian Arcos, associate director at the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University. The protests have revealed the weaknesses not only within its own territorial limits but beyond, crossing the ocean to reach the American soil.