Clashes are escalating between the rebel Houthi militia and the forces loyal to its ally, former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, and recently led to people from both sides being killed or injured. The development came on the heels of a tug of war during which the two sides publicly exchanged accusations of not fulfilling promises, involvement in corruption and crossing red lines. The political and media crossfire is unprecedented and efforts of mediators failed to contain the crisis. Consequently, the two sides engaged in a show of military force and mobilized their supporters and put their troops on standby to intervene when necessary.
Cracks emerged in the alliance of rebels due to their disagreement which is likely to increase in the future due to the escalation of political tension to armed conflict, and because their disagreement turned into rivalry fueled by each party’s attempts to tilt the balance of security and political power in its favor. As such, the consequences can be severe enough to cause a collapse of the whole structure of the alliance, at both political and security levels, driven primarily by rampant corruption at state institutions controlled by the rebels and the increasing influence of the Houthi group’s Supreme Revolutionary Committee.
Attempts to contain the crisis and maintain what according to several is an “alliance of necessity” continue to be threatened by an increasing lack of mutual confidence. Even with the possibility that new arrangements could be put in place would not restore the alliance and put it together again. A pacification commission formed to address the rift includes figures from both sides such as Major General Mohammad al-Qawsi, who is close to Saleh, and the military commander of the Houthi militia, Major General Abdullah Yahya, also known as Abu Ali al-Hakim, whom the Houthis appointed as head of the Yemeni military intelligence.
Multiple Indications
The widening rift in the alliance between the Houthis and Saleh is evidenced by the following indications:
1- A bid to change the balance of power. The chief of the so-called Supreme Political Council Saleh Ali al-Samad issued a resolution dismissing 29 officers loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh at the ministry of defense, the ministry of interior and the security forces of governorates. Most significantly, the appointment of Abu Ali al-Hakem at the ministry of defense, made when the officers loyal to Saleh were dismissed, indicates that the Houthi militia seeks to take control of the security and military posts primarily because it views itself as the main source of funds for troops and operations.
Other areas that the Houthis seek to control include education. The Saleh camp accuses the Houthis of changing the curriculum to be in line with its ideology. Moreover, while the Houthis seek to tilt the balance of security power in their favor, Saleh seeks to make a show of political power by boasting his popular support base in a rally organized to mark the anniversary of his party, the General People's Congress. He wanted to show political influence and, at the same time, respond to the Houthis’ attempts to entrench their security influence.
Shortly before the Houthis made the decisions regarding the security establishment, Saleh had the view that their Supreme Revolutionary Committee seeks to unilaterally control the decision-making process at the Supreme Political Council and would veto any decisions it deems unacceptable. Saleh declared this on the website of the General People's Congress.
The scene witnessed a gradual shift from alliance to conflict and rivalry and once the troops loyal to Saleh finished their show of military force, the Houthis staged their own show of force at the same location, which eventually sparked bloody clashes between the two sides.
2- Difficulty in containing recurrent crises between the two sides. The inability of either party to settle the balance of power in its favor does impose several obstacles for containing any possible recurrent crises between them through a re-engineering of their alliance's structure or a redeployment of their troops. Neither bid would prevent recurrent clashes, due in particular to the fact that Saleh’s supporters are asked to be armed and prepared for forthcoming confrontations to take revenge for those killed, including Colonel Khalid Al Radhi, a prominent military figure of the Republican Guards, and the former chief of the office of Saleh’s son, Ahmed who appeared to be personally targeted. The Houthi militia set up a security checkpoint in front of Ahmed’s office to send the message that they can besiege him and his father and their supporters. The militia later backed this message by redeploying in critical areas in the capital Sanaa, such as Jawlat al-Misbahi, the Hadda residential district, the al-Sabeen Square and others, to lock Saleh’s troops in while firing sporadic shots from time to time, according to local media.
At the same time, the Houthi leaders demanded a state of emergency be declared to further tighten their control on areas under Saleh’s influence. Overall, the messages sent through shows of power now overshadow calls for reconciliations from several parties, which is the clearest indication yet that containing this crisis is far from easy.
3- New variables. Saleh, maybe, seeks to use the initiative proposed by UN Secretary-General's Special Envoy to Yemen, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed regarding the port of Hodeida as a new path to settlement, to change his positions on some pending issues and put more pressure on the Houthis in the coming period. The Houthi militia appeared to be preparing for such change, which prompted it to seize control on Saleh’s areas of influence.
Lingering Possibility
A scenario of disintegration of the alliance of the rebels in Sanaa remains unlikely, for the time being, due to a mutual reliance on the “alliance of necessity”. Nonetheless, this would not prevent disintegration of the alliance in the future if political tension escalates to armed conflict. That in, in the coming period, there will be a need for establishing new arrangements to contain the crisis and re-build confidence, especially because neither side is prepared for a breakdown of the alliance that would drain their resources if and when it escalates to armed conflict.
Within the same context, it is expected that either side would show willingness to contain the crisis as a political maneuver to be able to arrange their cards and calculations in the future. However, if the crisis is further exacerbated and armed confrontations become more likely to recur, the alliance would be poised to implode from within, simply because of the widening disagreement, which is no longer minor, and the settlement of which is no easy task.
