On September 29, French interior minister Gérald Darmanin said that if Algeria and Morocco do not receive their citizens deported from France, France will not receive any more Algerian and Moroccan citizens. The French government has made a decision to slash the number of visas issued for Algerians and Moroccans by 50%, and for Tunisians by 33%. This decision has triggered angry reactions; references were even made France's colonial past.
Different dimensions
The French government obviously expected that such a decision would complicate France's tense relationship with Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia even more. However, it is the timing of this decision that seems strange, especially as French foreign policy has seen several setbacks recently. In order to understand this decision, we need to take the following into consideration:
1. Numbers of people forced to leave France are increasing:
Interior Ministry's data show that compared to 2020, 2021 saw a significant increase in the numbers of Maghreb citizens who got an order to leave France (OQTF). To be more accurate, 7731 Algerians, 3301 Moroccans and 3424 Tunisians were ordered to leave French territories, increasing the 2020 percentage by 47%, 25% and 43% respectively. However, on October 10, Algerian president Abdelmadjid Tebboune maintained that the French government did not inform Algeria about the 7000 Algerians that were supposed to leave France, explaining that during 2021 only three lists, containing no more than 94 names, were sent to the Algerian government. Tebboune considered France's Interior Minister to be 'lying' concerning the numbers of Algerians illegal immigrants.
2. Only few deportation processes were carried out:
Deportation cannot be carried out without getting consular passes from the deportees' countries of origin. French authorities believe that these countries are deliberately delaying the issuing of such passes. For example, in Algeria's case, only 22 deportation processes were carried out in 2021 (which means that only 0.3% of Algerian illegal immigrants were actually deported). As for authorities in Maghreb countries, they actually prefer to take their time when dealing with deportees because most of these have no documents to prove that they belong in Algeria, Morocco or Tunisia (because they usually destroy such documents once they arrive in France). Besides, in many cases it is difficult to know where a deportee is from without engaging the services of a linguistic expert to examine his/her accent, which takes a relatively long time. In addition, sometimes there would criminals or extremists among the deportees, which makes it necessary for authorities in Maghreb countries to fully investigate their situation before allowing them to return, for security considerations. This is particularly important as numbers announced by French Interior Ministry show that 231 of those who must be deported are classified as extremists.
3. The Coronavirus pandemic has a say:
As France felt a lack of cooperation on the Maghreb countries' part, it decided to cut down the number of visas issued for their citizens. Visas for Algerians were slashed by 50% (from 420000 visas in 2017, the number went down to 200000 in 2019, then again to 100000 in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic). French authorities continued to issue OQTFs, though they know well that no one will obey, especially as most countries closed their international airspace on account of the pandemic. Even after airports were opened and international flights were resumed, differences in travel procedures followed by each country had a negative effect on the cooperation needed for completing the deportation processes. For instance, Moroccan authorities refuse to receive deportees unless they have taken PCR and tested negative for Covid-19. By contrast, French laws do not necessitate such a procedure.
4. French presidential elections also have a role to play:
The French decision was made almost at the same time as preparations for French presidential elections, which are supposed to take place in April 2022. Immigration is one of the prime concerns of French people, and, therefore, an important issue to many presidential candidates, especially far-right leaders who have lately been highlighting the current government's failure to be decisive in dealing with the immigration problem, in so doing making use of the fact that recent deportation processes have been limited in number. Jordan Bardella, RN's interim president who is also a member of the European Parliament, said in this month (October) that entering France is very easy, whereas leaving it is very difficult. He also said that only 12% of those who get orders to leave France obey these orders, as all that deportees need to do to stay in France is to refuse to take a PCR test. In September, RN's candidate Marine Le Pen said that France should be ruthless when dealing with countries which refuse to take back their illegal immigrants. For example, she said, France sends these countries more money than they actually need to achieve development, and this should stop at once. On October 4, Le Pen said that over the past four years, the French government has done nothing at all to deal with the immigration problem, but is now trying to look decisive. Eric Zemmour is even trying to show that he adopts a stricter anti-immigration attitude than Le Pen's. One of the slogans of his campaign is 'Immigration Zero'. It is noteworthy that a poll by CNEWS on September 30 showed that 87% of the French people support the government's decision to slash visas issued for people from Maghreb countries.
Negative consequences
Over the past two weeks, French-Algerian relations have witnessed much tension as a result of the French government's decision to slash visas granted Algerian citizens. This decision has also highlighted certain internal and external trends and attitudes which have started to form. These can be summed up as follows:
1. Diplomatic tension between France and Maghreb countries is increasing:
French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has almost done nothing to see to the execution of the aforementioned decision; it was French government spokesperson Gabriel Attal, Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin and Citizenship Minister Marlène Schiappa who did. In an interview by Europe 1, September 28, Attal said that France first discussed the deportation of illegal immigrants with Maghreb countries, then issued warnings, and now it is time to put these warnings into effect. Similarly, Darmanin said in the French Parliament that the French government will rethink its decision only if the Maghreb countries issue the needed consular passes. Schiappa also said that the French government does not draw up its schedule based on Marine Le Pen's desires, but makes decisions only when convinced with their importance and ready to carry them out.
Sources in the Algerian Foreign Ministry expressed strong disapproval of the decision which was made on the eve of an Algerian delegation's visit to Paris whose aim was to enhance cooperation on the immigration file. Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita said that the French decision is unjustifiable.
Statements by the French President have even worsened the diplomatic crisis. In a meeting with a group of French students of Algerian origins (covered by Le Monde on October 2), Macron expressed doubt about the existence of an Algerian nation before the French occupation of Algeria. He also said that Algerian authorities adopt a hostile attitude towards France and promote a discourse of hatred in reference to it. Algeria retaliated by recalling its ambassador to France, Mr. Mohamed Antar-Daoud, for consultation. It also closed its airspace to French military planes, thus putting an end to a privilege that was granted to France by former President Bouteflika with the aim of facilitating French military operations in the Sahel region.On October 10, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune said that the Algerian ambassador will not return to Paris unless France shows full respect to Algeria and forget that Algeria was once a French colony.
2. Debate is raging about French immigration policies:
Commenting on the French decision, the Republicans party (opponent of Macron's La République en Marche) said that the reason behind this state of confusion is the absence of a clear immigration policy. President of the Senate Gerard Larcher said the decision indicates that the government has failed, especially if we take into consideration that those seeking asylum in France have increased in number and are no longer seeking asylum for the known and usual reasons, whereas numbers of people seeking asylum in other EU countries are decreasing. Marine Le Pen said that if she is elected president, she will call for a general referendum in which all French people should take part to decide the destiny of immigration to France. French Minister of Interior commented that it would be as if Le Pen was asking people whether they like 'good weather'. LREM leaders said that even if such referendum is conducted and new immigration laws are passed, putting the new immigration policy into effect will always be a problem, especially as the other party (i.e. Maghreb countries) does not show enough cooperation.
3. Youth are giving up former Francophone aspirations:
The French president stressed that the new decision will not target students or businessmen, but will rather be used against military and political elite. Nevertheless, large numbers of Maghribi youth pursuing their studies in France or intending to travel to it started to change their plans. This can have a negative impact on France as French labour market actually needs such youth, who are strongly reminded of Trump's Muslim Ban, and so are thinking twice before regarding France as a suitable destination.
4. Far-right ideas are gaining more popularity in France:
In France, as in many other EU countries, the Far Right is keen on regarding immigration as a main reason for high unemployment rates, terrorism and deterioration of the welfare state. These ideas are finding favor with European public opinion. Far-right leaders are even promoting closing national borders and withdrawing from the Schengen Agreement which guarantees free movement and passage to citizens from EU countries.
There are fears that moderate and centrist parties in France (and in Europe in general) may jump on the bandwagon to win favor with the voters and prevent the Far Right from rising to power. Unfortunately, exerting pressure on Maghreb countries may take the form of adopting far-right ideas, such as abolishing financial assistance to Maghribi citizens living in France, choosing not to finance development projects in the Maghreb countries, and imposing more restrictions on travel so that Maghribi people would find it difficult to enter Europe. It is noteworthy that American political thinker Peter Andreas has already shown that strengthening control of US borders (often via military means) actually changed the 'procedures' of illegal immigration rather than put an end to it; people now pay more and take longer to illegally enter the USA, but they are still doing it.
In the final analysis, the French-Maghribi visa crisis has shown how difficult and even complicated it is to try to effect reconciliation between the former colonizers on the one hand and the former colonies on the other. It is really difficult to reach a relationship based on mutual understanding and trust between France and the Maghreb countries, despite the French President's attempts to narrow the gap separating their historical narratives. Macron's efforts to bring about 'memory reconciliation', especially with Algeria, are not likely to bear fruit in the short run. His insistence on achieving quick victories can actually lead to the opposite of what he desires to achieve. France should have tried, as quietly as possible, to arrive at a diplomatic solution to the deportees' problem. Rather, it chose to put the whole situation in the media spotlight, and the consequences will by no means be in the reconciliatory attempts' favor.
Generally speaking, there are three scenarios as far as the crisis is concerned. These are as follows:
1. French authorities may continue to escalate the crisis via state-run media till the presidential elections are over (in May 2022).
2. France may reach an understanding with the Maghreb countries whereby the two parties will cooperate in finding a solution to the deportees' problem.
3. France may actually carry out the decision, but after finding ways to 'neutralize' its innocent victims (i.e. students, businessmen, etc.) so that they should not be harmed by the decision.
