There is general atmosphere of optimism regarding freeing the western part of Mosul from the grip of ISIS in the hope that Raqqa will be restored next, which would mean the fall of the capital of the alleged Caliphate and its symbolism among terrorist organizations in the world. However, this raises many important questions about the location that ISIS may choose as its new capital and its specifications. Most importantly, which branch is capable of undertaking this mission, especially if its leaders fail to relocate their capital to Deir Al-zour, to which top commanders and leading figures have begun to move since early January 2017, after fleeing from Raqqa and Mosul.
These “hypothetical” questions are becoming increasingly important considering the multiplicity and spread of ISIS branches around the world, and the desire of many of them to take on this task, considering the substantial organizational and material privileges to be obtained if hosting the group’s stronghold.
Significance of "Caliphate’s Headquarters"
ISIS declaration of its so-called "caliphate" and the inauguration of Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi as its leader represented a turning point in the history of jihadist groups. It was the first organization to do this, which in turn helped attract many extremists from around the world, where the sanctity of the concept of Caliphate made them pay allegiance to ISIS individually and collectively.
The fall of the alleged Caliphate’s capital in Raqqa will have repercussions on the future of ISIS and its cohesion because the group would lose the main reason that made extremists rally around it. This would prompt it to search for a new headquarters, which will serve in the meanwhile as a stronghold for ISIS command and control. For this purpose, it will probably choose one of the areas controlled by one of its strong branches.
Though it is important for ISIS to act quickly to choose a new headquarters after Raqqa, it would be hard to do that without paying allegiance to a new Caliph. The fall of the organization in Iraq and Syria, will most likely lead to the killing or capturing of Al-Baghdadi, who will find difficulty fleeing Iraq and Syria, considering the intent of international and regional powers to capture him.
Therefore, ISIS branches would rush to pay allegiance to a new figure to succeed Al-Baghdadi. The successor must meet a set of requirements developed by the group for selecting its Caliph, such as the candidate should be Qurayshi (i.e. originating from the Quraysh tribe), knowledgeable, in full possession of his faculties and fair, among other qualities, meaning the new leader will probably be an Arab and a ‘historical’ jihadi leader. Accordingly, the new capital of ISIS Caliphate will likely be in the Arab region.
New Headquarters Specifications
Conditions in Syria and Iraq have largely contributed to the presence of ISIS, its expansion and survival till now. Since it is difficult for the group to find a perfect place like Raqqa, it will seek an area that has much of these conditions, as it will be the base of its senior leaders.
The most important specifications for ISIS new capital are:
1. Central security collapse: the area to be selected, to host the new capital of ISIS should obviously suffer from a security collapse, lack of a strong central government control over the country and lack of a strong regular army; enabling ISIS branch there to take over a specific area completely, to establish the new headquarters for its alleged caliphate.
In this regard, Deutsche Welle reported, in June 2016, that elements of ISIS began heading towards Libya or Afghanistan or other unstable countries.
2. Strong presence of ISIS: the group cannot choose a new stronghold without having a strong presence and influence in it. For ISIS to have full control over a patch of land, it needs significant numbers of fighters, operational activity and armament resources, and the ability to carry operations that enable it to terrorize state institutions, including the military.
3. Difficult geographical terrain: ISIS would make sure that the new region selected, as its headquarters, has difficult geographical terrain to be hard to be taken over by hostile forces, meanwhile enables its elements to hunker down to avoid expected strikes and to use in training and establishing camps.
4. Favorable community: terrorist organizations, particularly ISIS, prefer areas that serve as hotbeds for extremist ideas. A community where such ideas, intellectual and radical doctrinal heritage are entrenched among its population, and thus they can easily be influenced to adopt its ideology. Therefore, ISIS needs an environment that can live with that ideology, or at least does not resist it, to ensure recruiting new fighters.
5. Mounting sectarian strife: terrorist organizations in general, and ISIS in specific, depend heavily on sectarian conflicts to recruit and mobilize. Because such conflicts are not restricted to a particular ideology, they have considerable appeal to extremists around the world, not to mention that these groups present themselves as the defender of the Sunnis against the so called sectarian aggression, which is considered one of the main reasons that helped ISIS exist and expand in Iraq and Syria.
Accordingly, ISIS would likely choose one of the countries that suffer a strong sectarian strife, to be the new headquarters for its alleged caliphate, because it gives it a reason to stay, fight and recruit, as well as draw fighters from abroad, under the slogan of a holy war in defense of the Sunni faith.
6. Potential movement of fighters: despite the successive strikes by international and regional powers against ISIS, the presence of many foreign fighters was one of the most important factors that contributed to the survival of the organization until now.
According to a report by Soufan Group, released in March 2016, foreign fighters who travelled to Iraq and Syria, to join ISIS or other terrorist organizations, were between 27.000 and 31.000 fighters, from about 86 countries around the world. Those fighters have distinctive traits, such as intellectual and organizational commitment and the ability to conduct unconventional operations such as suicide and “Inghimasi” operations.
Hence, ISIS leaders will make sure that the new headquarters facilitates the movement of foreign fighters, whether from the residents of Syria or Iraq or new volunteers, especially which the organization will need to strengthen its presence in the new location.
In conclusion, ISIS will have difficulty finding all the above-mentioned conditions and specifications in one area to establish its new headquarters. This will probably force the group to opt for a place that qualifies for most of these requirements. Ultimately, the group will compare and weigh the available alternatives, depending on the its priorities and harmony among its leaders in the coming period.
