On March 15, 2023, two Russian Su-27 aircraft and a US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drone clashed over the Black Sea, resulting in the drone crashing into the sea. This marked the first direct confrontation between Moscow and Washington since the beginning of the Russian military operation in Ukraine over a year ago and led to material losses for the United States.

Conflicting Narratives

Both the American and Russian narratives attribute the fall of the drone to aggressive manoeuvres by Russia, but they differ on the location of the crash. Here is a detailed account of the issue:

1.    The US narrative:

The US European Command issued a statement that the MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations when two Russian Su-27 aircraft conducted an unsafe and unprofessional intercept of the drone. The Russian aircraft dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 several times for 30 to 40 minutes in a reckless manner. One of the Russian aircraft then struck the propeller of the MQ-9, forcing US forces to bring the drone down in international waters.

2.    Russia’s narrative:

Russia argued that the US drone was flying provocatively close to the Russian border and entered an area that Russian authorities had declared off-limits as part of the military operation in Ukraine. It said that the Russian military scrambled fighters to intercept the U.S. drone but that its fighters did not collide with nor fire at the drone. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the drone went into uncontrollable flight with a loss of altitude and collided with the water surface after a sharp manoeuvre, without any interference from the Russian aircraft.

Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov rejected all US claims about the downing of the drone and demanded that Washington stop "hostile" flights near the Russian border.

The Russian Ministry of Defense further claimed that the US drone was heading towards the Crimea and the Russian border and that two Russian fighters intercepted it without making direct contact with it. It added that the drone crashed after it went into uncontrollable flight following a sharp manoeuvre by the two Russian aircraft.

Washington's Downplaying of the Incident

The American position regarding the incident can be examined as follows:

1.    Condemning Moscow's recklessness:

Washington denounced the incident, describing it as reckless. John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesman, told reporters that the intercept was "unsafe and unprofessional and reflects reckless decision-making." Following the event, Washington summoned the Russian ambassador to protest the drone's downing.

2.    Deliberate damage:

US officials viewed the downing of the US drone as an accidental and unintentional action by the Russian pilots. However, it would have been impossible for them to intentionally come into direct contact with the drone because such a risky action would have caused the Russian aircraft to crash. Nevertheless, all US officials agree that the incident was not a coincidence because the Russian fighters flew several times in front of the US drone and dumped fuel on it in an attempt to shut off its cameras and damage its sensors. This was an evident deliberate action aimed at damaging the drone. In other words, the Russian pilots intentionally damaged the drone and stopped short of downing it.

3.    Self-Restraint and de-escalation:

Washington condemned the incident as an unprofessional action that shows a lack of competency and is part of dangerous, aggressive actions. Despite this, the US Administration tried to downplay the incident to contain the situation and prevent escalation. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said it is incumbent upon Russia to operate its military aircraft in a safe and professional manner. He added that he spoke with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, stressing the importance of keeping the lines of communication open.

Meanwhile, US State Department spokesman Ned Price stated that US officials do not see any clear indications one way or another that there was a deliberate intention to bring down the drone and that their intention was to prevent the drone from heading towards Russian territory.

Damage to Russian Aircraft: According to Pentagon Press Secretary, Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the encounter caused damage to the US drone, but it is likely to have also caused damage to the Russian fighter, which, he said, landed after the incident. The statement is likely intended to save face for the international audience.

Russian Challenge to Washington

It is noteworthy that while Russia publicly expressed its desire for de-escalation, its actions suggest that it is adopting a challenging stance towards the United States. This can be explained as follows:

1.    Diplomatic efforts for de-escalation:

Russian sources emphasized that Moscow seeks to prevent any escalation of tensions with the United States. Ambassador Anatoly Antonov listened carefully to American officials' concerns and described his meeting with them as constructive, indicating Moscow's desire for diplomatic de-escalation.

2.    Awarding pilots involved in the drone incident:

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu awarded state honours to the pilots of the two Su-27 fighter planes that intercepted the US drone. This action may have been a public display of support for the pilots involved in the incident.

3.    Recovery of the US drone:

After the US gave up on recovering the surveillance drone, Russia's Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev stated that Russia would attempt to recover the drone. If successful, this would be a significant intelligence victory for Russia, enabling them to reverse-engineer the drone and build a similar one or reinforce their air defense systems' capabilities to target drones like the MQ-9 Reaper.

The MQ-9 Reaper UAV is one of the world's most advanced drones, with a range of 3000 km and the ability to fly non-stop for four hours. It carries a variety of weapons, including 16 AGM-114 Hellfire missiles, giving it a strike capability comparable to that of an Apache helicopter gunship. According to assessments by the US Air Force in March 2023, the unit cost of an MQ-9 Reaper is $56.5 million, making the incident a significant material and tactical loss for the United States

Implications of the US Drone Downing

The downing of the US drone has several implications:

1.    US dwindling presence:

The incident revealed weaknesses in the US military presence in the Black Sea as there was no US military ship in the area to recover the crashed drone. Moreover, Turkey's commitment to the Montreux Convention, which regulates maritime traffic through the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits, is likely to limit the US military presence in the area. Turkey closed the two straits to all military ships over the conflict in Ukraine in May 2022.

2.    Washington's conflicting position:

The incident revealed contradictory reactions from the United States. While some US officials said the crashing of the drone was likely unintentional, others suggested that the Americans were forced to shoot down the plane. While Kirby spoke of no open communication channels between US and Russia since the video of the plane crash was released, a statement from the White House confirmed that the United States maintains open communication channels with Russia.

Initially, Washington confirmed that it would salvage the crashed UAV before retracting and stating that Russia would not be able to salvage it. Before that, the Pentagon reiterated on March 17, 2023, that it had indications suggesting that Russia attempted to salvage the wreckage of the American drone.

In contrast, Russia maintained a consistent and stern stance, rejecting all American hints of responsibility for the incident. Moscow condemned Washington for spying on Russian naval forces in the Black Sea near Crimea.

3.    Moscow's use of coercive signalling:

This incident will fuel the fears of the US military due to its inability to predict the potential series of events resulting from any future US reconnaissance operations, especially in light of Moscow's use of the "coercive signals" policy. This means sending signals that target the enemy who is conducting provocative and hostile actions in order to undermine their hostile missions. General David Berger, the commandant of the US Marine Corps, highlighted this issue.

Potential Future Repercussions

The near future is expected to witness several actions, which can be summarized as follows:

1.    Possible future escalation:

Undoubtedly, the incident has caused international embarrassment to the United States, especially militarily. Thus, the incident may push Washington to take retaliatory measures against Russia, but to avoid escalation at present, it will only do so after it overcomes the current crisis. These measures may include providing more direct military support to Ukraine to carry out targeted operations against Russia to compensate for the loss of the American drone and to confirm Washington's ability to respond to the incident, albeit indirectly.

2.    Militarization of the Black Sea:

The Black Sea is expected to witness the competition between Washington and Moscow, seeking to strengthen their military presence in the area. Putin will work to maintain the Russian military presence there. On the other hand, it is not ruled out that Washington will circumvent the Montreux Convention by renting civilian ships belonging to private companies to cross the Turkish straits and then demonstrate its naval military capabilities either to search for the wreckage of the drone in the near future or to enhance maritime partnerships with other NATO countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey. However, such a direct presence will not guarantee Washington's ability to achieve deterrence against Moscow.

To conclude, it appears that Russia has imposed new rules on the United States, requiring Americans to stop spying on its naval fleet in the Black Sea in support of Ukrainian military operations. Moscow will not hesitate to shoot down or intercept US spy planes if they attempt to do so in the future. In return, Washington will seek revenge against Russia by assisting Ukraine in carrying out an attack against Moscow. Russia will retaliate against this attack in Ukraine, which means that escalation is likely to dominate Russian-American relations in the Ukrainian arena in the near future.