In the early hours of 26 March 2015, the Saudi-led coalition Operation Decisive Storm launched its first military airstrikes against the locations under the control of the Houthi rebels and their ally, Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. According to the Saudi-led collation's statement, Operation Decisive Storm was launched in response to a request from Yemen’s president, Abd-Rabbuh Mansour Hadi "to protect Yemen and its people from the aggression of the Houthi militias which were and are still a tool in the hands of foreign powers that don’t stop meddling with the security and stability of brotherly Yemen. Their threat is not confined to Yemen's security, stability and sovereignty, but has become "a comprehensive threat to the security of the region and international peace and security". As the Houthis' assaults affected also the territory of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the other Gulf countries are now facing a continuing threat to their security and stability due to the presence of heavy weapons and long and short-range missiles outside the control of the legitimate authority.
Arab leaders reaffirmed full support to Operation Decisive Storm in support of legitimacy in Yemen and that Saudi-led airstrikes in Yemen will continue until the Houthi rebels there withdraw and surrender their weapons. According to a resolution on Yemen issued on 29 March 2015 at the end of the two-day 26th Arab Summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, Arab leaders emphasized that the military operation was based on Article 2 of the Arab Treaty of Joint Defense, the Charter of the Arab League, its principles and resolutions on Yemen, and Article 51 of the UN Charter. On the background of this regional and international support for the military intervention in Yemen, it is necessary to outline the positions of Yemen's main political parties and see how the current events are affecting their positions and what are the possibilities for a political solution.
Standpoints of Yemen's main political parties
1. The General People's Congress (GPC), headed by former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, slammed the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen, saying the conflict was an internal affair. The party said it had nothing to do with the violence, adding that what’s happening in Yemen is a power struggle between some other parties, calling on all sides to stop fighting, end their efforts to take control of state and military institutions, and resume United Nations-brokered talks on a political settlement. After the defection of its leaders in Mareb and other southern provinces, the party has lost the strength and cohesion it had in mid-2014. According to recent leaks, the son of ousted President Saleh and Saudi defense minister, in a meeting with Saudi defense minister two days before Operation Decisive Storm was launched. In the meeting, Ahmed Ali Saleh offered to abandon the Houthis and even fight them in exchange for some guarantees for his father including the lifting of international sanctions and granting him personal and financial immunity. These leaks almost created division between Saleh and the Houthis. Media outlets loyal to the former president were quick to dismiss the leaks and some Houthi leaders described them as an attempt to create discord between the movement and GPC. In a televised address, the former Yemeni president vainly pleaded Arab leaders during their summit for a halt of the airstrikes. Arab leaders have not made any statements in response to response to Saleh's appeal.
2. The Houthis. In a televised address, the leader of the Houthi group, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, denounced the Saudi-led military intervention, saying "Do you want us to keep silent while you are killing us? Do you want us to agree that we have to die of hunger because of your air and sea blockade? In addition to his challenging tone, al-Houthi also announced the formation of five fronts: a foreign security front to confront "the aggression"; an internal front to take over the state's critical intuitions and prevent their collapse; a front to raise financial support for Houthi fighters; a media front to counter all the "traitorous" domestic and foreign campaigns; a front comprising preachers and scholars to mobilize Yemenis against Operation Decisive Storm.
3. The Yemeni Congregation for Reform (al-Islah Party) insisted on dialogue and called all parties to resort to reason and put national interests above all other considerations. Al-Islah leader Mohammad Qahtan warned that the situation in Yemen is serious after military movements in southern provinces and appealed to Saudi and Gulf leaders and sponsors of the GCC Initiative to take quick action to save the Yemenis from the woes of infighting and bloody conflicts and to put and an end to attempts to make the situation even worse in the south. A major power in Yemeni political landscape, Al-Islah is one of Yemen's most organized and cohesive parties. Despite recent tensions with Saudi Arabia, an enemy of the Muslim Brotherhood, al-Islah's relations with the Kingdom are improving.
4. The Nasserist Unionist People's Organization supports President Hadi's legitimate government but is against Operation Decisive Storm. The party calls for an immediate halt of all fighting, an end to all violations of national sovereignty, and calls the Houthi rebels, their allies and all armed groups to withdraw from all Yemeni governorate to empower the government to carry out its missions and take control of all Yemen's territory. The party even hinted that the Houthis' practices and their attempts to undermine of the legitimate power have led to the foreign intervention. The party rejects the intervention and calls for a return to serious and responsible dialogue to bring the country's crisis to an end.
5. The Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP) does not have a clear stand against Operation Decisive Storm but voices its rejection of war as an approach to solving conflicts, urges abandoning the "language of arms" and acting in line with the national interests of the Yemeni people.
Yemen's southern governorates and the political powers’ standpoints
1. Powers that support Operation Decisive Storm and President Hadi. These constitute a small part of the Southern Mobility Movement (known more simply as al-Hirak). The leaders of the movement participated in the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) but do not have powerful influence in the political landscape in Southern Yemen. The armed People's Committees established by former defense minister in 2012 to counter Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). It is the committees that entered Aden to fight the security forces loyal to the Houthis and the former president. The southern bloc in the Yemeni parliament gave its blessings to the Saudi-led intervention and backed President Hadi. Members of the standing committee of the General People's Congress in the south followed suit. Both Sheikh Hamid al-Ahmar, the prominent leader of the tribal wing of Yemeni Congregation for Reform (al-Islah) who lives in exile in Turkey, and Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, former commander of the army's 1st Armored Division, who is close to al-Islah party and now lives in Saudi Arabia, gave their blessings to the airstrikes against the Houthis. Al-Ahmar's return to Marib to fight pro-Saleh militias is not unlikely.
2. Powers that disagree with President Hadi but support Operation Decisive Storm. These include former Vice President Ali Salim al-Beidh who was Ali Abdullah Saleh's partner in the Unification of Yemen. He even issued a statement welcoming the Saudi-led operation against the militias of the Houthis and former president Saleh who occupy South Yemen. Al-Beidh greeted the parties to the partner states taking part in the military operation for standing with the "oppressed and tyrannized people of South Yemen", and taking a long-awaited decision to get rid of the generals and war criminals involved in the occupation of South Yemen. Al-Beidh who considers Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi as president of the occupied South Yemen urged his supporters to move and expel the Yemeni occupiers. Other tacit supporters of the military intervention include the League of the Free Sons of South Arabia, whose leader Abdulrahman al-Jifri, in January, told Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, in an interview with Al Arabiya news channel in January, "If you enter South Yemen by force, you will be driven out by force."
3. Hadhramaut Tribes Confederacy has not declared its position although it supports Operation Decisive Storm. The confederation has the declared aim of empowering the population of Hadhramaut to take control of their natural resources.
Military operations creating a new reality
No doubt, suspending military operation and seeking a political solution hinges on the Houthis' willingness to surrender their arms and withdraw from the areas they took over. Otherwise, the operation will continue and succeed in weakening the Houthis and forcing them out of the area under their control back to their stronghold in Saada. In addition to that, the operations will also weaken, if not take part, the General People's Congress, which can enable the Yemeni Congregation for Reform (al-Islah Party) to dominate the political landscape again, and even the salafi Rashad Union Party to play an increasing role. A comprehensive review of the GCC Initiative is also likely where the gains made by the ousted president will be dropped, and the demands of southern Yemenis will be reconsidered to strengthen their stature in the political process. Saudi Arabia will continue to back its allies in Yemen and review the dossier that Saleh damaged severely. Saudi influence spreads to Yemeni tribes, including Hashid, Bakil and others in Marib in the north and Hadhramaut and Shabwa in the south, as well as to several political parties in both the north and south.
It is safe to say that Operation Decisive Storm is open-ended and that failure is unlikely unless it dragged on and the number of civilian casualties continues to rise. A lengthy military operation would have negative impacts on the political and economic situation in Yemen, where involved people will be divided into supporters and opponents. It is worth noting that these contrasting attitudes are based on regional or sectarian considerations, however this may change a lot when and if land operations are launched, because Yemenis have their own historical sensitivities.
Because Yemeni tribes in northernmost regions are already armed and have a favorable environment where they practice fighting is their profession and main source of living, the current events will likely lead to the emergence of an armed movement in the south following the spreading mayhem and he looting of camps in the southern governorates of Aden, Lahaj and Abyan, eventually driving most of Yemen into militarization. After Operation Decisive Storm is over, GCC states will need to reconsider the way they treat Yemen and think seriously of helping it find solutions to its economic problems so as to prevent a comeback of tragedies, use their aid in creating jobs and maybe will have to open the door for Yemenis to work in GCC states
