Afghanistan's heartbeat feels different now—there's a pulse of hope amidst uncertainty. The sentiment struck me during my visit to Afghanistan in 2022, a few months after the Taliban's resurgence in 2021. Their rise to power marked a significant shift in the country's governance landscape. Following the United States' chaotic withdrawal and the Afghan government's collapse, the Afghan Interim Government (AIG) found itself at the helm of a nation devastated by decades of conflict, yet poised for a new chapter. As the AIG approached governance, they faced the immense challenge of balancing their authoritarian Islamic ideology with the practical realities of ruling a modern state. Conversations with Afghan citizens, policymakers, and AIG members provided insights into the AIG's domestic governance strategies, regional relations, and future scenarios for Afghanistan under their rule.

Domestic Governance Strategy

1- Ideological evolution

The Afghan Interim Government's (AIG) governance can be understood through the lens of its ideological evolution from the Taliban of the 1990s (Taliban 1.0)[1] to the current regime (Taliban 2.0).[2] Emerging during the Afghan civil war, the Taliban's first incarnation was characterized by a rigid imposition of Sharia law, limited experience with statecraft, and an ambition for global jihad. Their governance model was heavily influenced by Pan-Islamism, aligning them with global jihadist movements like Al-Qaeda.

During my discussions, many Afghans reflected on the stark contrast between the past and present, noting how the current regime has attempted to weave a more localized identity into its governance narrative. While the Taliban's rule during the 1990s reflected a simplistic approach to governance, with limited consideration for economic development or modern state functions, the Taliban of 2021 present a more evolved ideological framework.

The current iteration combines localized religio-nationalism with elements of Pashtun tribal identity and a pragmatic approach to governance. Discussions with local leaders hinted at AIG's (Taliban 2.0) emphasis on its Afghan roots, drawing from the legacy of the Durrani Empire while adapting to modern statecraft. Although they remain committed to Islamic governance, they've made limited efforts to integrate modern administrative structures, signaling a shift from a Pan-Islamic ideology to a more Afghan-centered approach.

2- Power structure and political dynamics

The AIG's internal power dynamics are characterized by a highly centralized authority under Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, who exerts significant control over decision-making. Conversations with officials revealed factions within the Taliban, broadly categorized into hardliners and pragmatists. Hardliners adhere to strict interpretations of Sharia law and resist reforms, while pragmatists recognize the need to adapt certain governance practices to stabilize the state and engage with the international community. Factionalism within the AIG has influenced both domestic governance and regional relations. Despite the central government's attempts to enforce unity, local governance remains heavily influenced by regional warlords and clerics, reflecting Afghanistan's deeply entrenched tribal structure. Discussions with the local community in Kabul indicated the AIG's struggle to fully integrate diverse ethnic groups, particularly non-Pashtun minorities such as Tajiks, Hazaras, and Uzbeks. Moreover, armed insurgencies, including groups like the National Resistance Front (NRF) and ISIS-K, pose challenges that threaten the AIG's grip on power.

3- Law, human rights, and social control

The AIG's legal framework, rooted in a strict interpretation of Sharia law, has raised significant concerns over human rights, particularly those of women, minority groups, and civil liberties. An Afghan mother shared with me, "We fear for our daughters' futures." Since their return to power, the AIG has enforced severe restrictions on women's education, employment, and participation in public life. United Nations estimates reveal that 2.5 million Afghan girls are currently denied schooling, while nearly 80% of working women have lost their jobs due to AIG government policies.[3]

Media freedoms have also been sharply curtailed, with the AIG exerting tight control over the flow of information. During an informal interaction in Kabul, a journalist recounted his experience of intimidation for simply reporting on daily life, illustrating the regime's attempts to suppress dissent and maintain social order. Freedom House ranks Afghanistan among the least free countries globally, as the AIG has imposed severe media restrictions and detained journalists who criticize the regime.[4]

International human rights organizations have criticized the AIG's draconian measures, but the AIG remain resolute in their application of Islamic law, framing it as a non-negotiable aspect of their governance. The challenge for the AIG lies in balancing these ideological commitments with the need to present a more moderate face to the international community, which conditions humanitarian aid and recognition on improvements in human rights.

The Afghan immigrant issue continues to highlight the challenges faced by the population. Since the Taliban's return to power, an estimated 2.6 million Afghans have fled the country, seeking refuge in neighboring countries and beyond. The mass exodus highlights the instability that persists under the AIG rule. Statistics from the International Organization for Migration (IOM)[5] indicate that the majority of these refugees have settled in Pakistan and Iran, with many more attempting to reach Europe. Interactions with the refugees revealed their urgent quest for safety, as many face repatriation or deportation back to a homeland still in the process of rebuilding after years of conflict.

4- Economic management

Economically, Afghanistan under the AIG faces immense challenges. The country's financial system remains severely crippled by international sanctions and the freezing of assets, particularly those held in Western banks, amounting to nearly $9 billion.[6] During my visit, a local merchant living near our accommodation lamented, "We feel trapped, unable to trade or sustain our families." However, some analysts with on-ground insights suggest that the U.S. has also left behind approximately $9 billion worth of weaponry, which the AIG reportedly sells on the black market, generating additional revenue.

According to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), while the AIG has limited access to global financial markets, they have received some funds from U.S. aid, including $3.5 billion transferred from frozen Afghan central bank funds to stabilize the economy. The SIGAR report also highlights that 38 out of 65 U.S. implementing partners have paid a total of $10.9 million in taxes, fees, duties, and utilities to the AIG.[7] Nevertheless, the absence of formal recognition by major international powers has exacerbated the economic crisis, driving much of the population into poverty.

Despite these obstacles, the AIG has sought to manage the economy by focusing on agriculture, local industries, and natural resources like mining. Yet, many Afghans expressed skepticism during informal conversations, indicating that these efforts are insufficient to tackle the scale of the nation's economic woes.

Afghanistan remains heavily dependent on humanitarian aid. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports that approximately 28 million people require humanitarian assistance, with 6 million on the brink of famine.[8] Organizations like the World Food Programme (WFP) have become a lifeline for millions. Currently, over 85% of Afghanistan's population lives below the poverty line,[9] and economic relief from agriculture and small local industries has done little to alleviate the crisis. United Nations estimates indicate that 19 million Afghans face acute hunger. Widespread poverty, food insecurity, and the threat of famine continue to plague the nation, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of the AIG's economic management.

a. Development projects and foreign investment:

Development projects like the Mes Aynak copper mine[10] and the Qush Tepa canal[11] offer potential economic benefits but face significant challenges. The Mes Aynak project, in particular, grapples with security concerns, infrastructure issues, and political instability.

The success of these ventures hinges on sustained stability and international cooperation, neither of which are guaranteed. Reports from the Afghan Ministry of Mines and Petroleum and international observers underscore the difficulties in attracting foreign investment, primarily due to ongoing security concerns.

b. Trade and regional connectivity issues:

Trade with Pakistan, Afghanistan's largest trading partner, has suffered under the AIG rule. A Pakistani businessman from Lahore expressed frustration over the diminished trade flow, emphasizing the economic interdependence jeopardized since the AIG took control. Despite historically strong trade relations, border closures, delays, and security concerns have disrupted economic connectivity projects like the CASA-1000 electricity transmission project and the TAPI pipeline. The Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAJCCI) reports that bilateral trade has declined by nearly 50% since the Taliban assumed power.

c. Shifts in Afghanistan’s drug economy:

The shift from opium production to synthetic drugs like crystal meth introduces new challenges. The AIG's crackdown on opium production, resulting in a 95% reduction according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), marks a positive step.[12] However, the rise of crystal meth production threatens to spark a new public health crisis within Afghanistan and beyond its borders. Community leaders have voiced concerns about this potential crisis, which could impact not only Afghanistan but also its neighboring countries.

Regional Relations and Geopolitics

1- Relations with neighboring countries

Afghanistan's geopolitical position, at the crossroads of Central, South, and West Asia, has made regional relations a critical aspect of the AIG's foreign policy. The Taliban historically maintained strong ties with Pakistan, which provided support during their insurgency against colonial powers. However, since returning to power in 2021, the AIG's relationship with Pakistan has grown more complex. Nationalistic divergences, particularly over border issues and the presence of terrorist groups like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), have strained ties. Islamabad is increasingly wary of instability spilling over into its own territory. Consequently, Pakistan, once seen as Kabul's key ally, now treads cautiously.

Relations with Iran, while cautious due to sectarian differences, are rooted in economic pragmatism. Trade, border security, and energy remain vital areas of cooperation. Iran has a vested interest in preventing instability on its eastern border and ensuring the safety of Shia communities in Afghanistan, such as the Hazaras.

Afghanistan's northern neighbors—Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan—have maintained a pragmatic approach, focusing on regional security, cross-border trade, and energy infrastructure projects, such as the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project. A Tajik official emphasized the interconnectedness of regional security dynamics, stating, "We cannot afford further instability."

2- Major powers

During my visits to Afghanistan, conversations with Taliban officials often centered on their relationships with global powers. One senior policymaker candidly explained that the AIG has pursued diplomatic engagement with major powers like China and Russia, viewing them as crucial to its regional stability and economic survival. "Our stability hinges on their investments and security support," he stated, adding that China's interest in Afghanistan is primarily driven by security concerns, particularly preventing the spread of extremism to Xinjiang.

Beijing has signaled its willingness to engage with the AIG through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), emphasizing infrastructure development and resource extraction. In 2023, Afghanistan signed a deal with China to facilitate investment in natural resources, especially rare earth minerals. However, China remains cautious about fully recognizing the AIG due to concerns over security and governance.

The leadership spoke with cautious optimism about the potential for Russia to play a role in stabilizing the region. While Moscow has remained pragmatic in its engagement, the AIG recognizes that without broader international recognition, it risks remaining in a diplomatic limbo.

Regarding India, the AIG officials were more reserved, with underlying tensions apparent in their comments. "We do not want conflict with India, but Pakistan is our closest ally," remarked one senior leader. India's concerns over Afghanistan as a potential hub for anti-Indian militants, particularly those aligned with Pakistan, have limited its engagement with the AIG. Nevertheless, India has adopted a pragmatic stance, continuing humanitarian and infrastructure assistance under India's Neighbourhood Policy[13] and keeping diplomatic lines open.

3- Middle Eastern engagement: UAE, Qatar, Turkey

UAE: The relationship of the United Arab Emirate with Afghanistan under the AIG has been multifaceted. Abu Dhabi remains a key humanitarian donor, having pledged $300 million in aid since 2021.[14] The UAE’s engagement focuses on humanitarian relief and economic stabilization efforts, as the AIG seeks to avoid the kind of extremist influence that could destabilize the wider region.

Qatar: Qatar, a major facilitator of dialogue with the Taliban, played a crucial role in the 2021 U.S.-Taliban negotiations. It remains a significant mediator between the AIG and the international community. Doha hosts the AIG’s political office, which continues to act as a bridge for international engagement.

Turkey: Turkey has positioned itself as a key player in post-U.S. Afghanistan. Ankara has been involved in efforts to manage Kabul's airport security, while also leveraging its NATO ties to mediate between Afghanistan and the West. Turkey’s focus has been on enhancing stability, trade, and infrastructure development in the country.

4- International isolation

Despite these regional engagements, the AIG remains diplomatically isolated from much of the international community, especially the West. Western nations have imposed sanctions and withheld recognition, citing human rights violations and the AIG’s refusal to form an inclusive government. However, selective engagement occurs, particularly for the delivery of humanitarian aid. The United Nations and various Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) continue to operate in Afghanistan, providing crucial support for a population in dire need, but this engagement has not translated into formal recognition.

Future Scenarios for Afghanistan: Navigating Crises and Prospects

The Taliban's return to power has reshaped Afghanistan’s trajectory, but uncertainty looms ahead. Conversations with Afghan officials, citizens, and policymakers reveal that the future hinges on the Afghan Interim Government's management of internal divisions, regional partnerships, and ongoing crises. The following scenarios, based on pull and push factors, horizon scans, and current challenges, explore how the AIG may influence Afghanistan's destiny.

Horizon Scanning

Afghanistan's future is shaped by several critical dynamics that will influence its internal stability, economic potential, and international standing. Key challenges include:

a. Factionalism within the Taliban: The divide between hardliners and reformists threatens internal cohesion.

b. Economic hardships: Ongoing economic collapse, high unemployment, and financial instability risk mass protests and social unrest.

c. Insurgent threats: Groups like TTP, ISIS-K and other militant factions exploit internal divisions, destabilizing security.

d. International isolation: Without significant reforms, Afghanistan faces continuous diplomatic and economic exclusion by the West.

e. Resource exploitation: Afghanistan's untapped mineral wealth offers economic potential, but security and infrastructure issues remain barriers.

f. Regional diplomacy: Afghanistan’s relationships with countries like China, Pakistan, Iran, UAE and Qatar may open doors for economic recovery and limited reforms.

These dynamics create a series of possible future scenarios as follows:

Conclusion: The Crossroads of Crisis and Opportunity

Afghanistan's future remains neither linear nor certain. The Afghan Interim Government (AIG) faces complex, overlapping challenges—from internal factionalism to economic collapse and international isolation. Nevertheless, opportunities exist for Afghanistan to forge a stable path through strategic regional partnerships, measured reforms, and careful exploitation of its natural resources. The AIG's ability to navigate these scenarios will hinge on their willingness to adapt, govern inclusively, and prioritize the Afghan people's welfare. As one policymaker candidly remarked: "We know what needs to be done. The question is, can we do it without losing who we are?"[15]