Recently, there have been numerous statements regarding the readiness of the United States and some European countries to recognize a Palestinian state. These statements, along with international positions, reflect the international consensus and even unanimity on the necessity of resolving the Palestinian issue according to the two-state principle recognized by the international community many years ago. They also indicate the international community's and influential powers' acknowledgment of the importance of this solution in halting the long-standing cycle of violence and conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, whether in Gaza or the West Bank. Additionally, the international community, particularly Western powers, are aware of the risks of ignoring and neglecting progress towards establishing the foundations of the two-state solution over the past decades. They understand that adopting the Israeli approach, which suggests that Tel Aviv can establish normal relations with Arab states without resolving the Palestinian issue, is not viable.
However, international consensus on the necessity of establishing and recognizing a Palestinian state as a full member of the United Nations clashes with the current position of the Israeli government, opposition, and public opinion. This consensus suggests that the first step should be the establishment of a Palestinian state, followed by its official approval through either an international conference or negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian leadership under UN or Western sponsorship. However, recent events, such as the events of October 7, 2023, and the ongoing war in Gaza, have further complicated the situation.
1- Israeli Government's Maneuvering
The current Israeli government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, swiftly reacted to statements made by the United States and certain European countries regarding the recognition of the Palestinian state. On February 18, 2024, Netanyahu issued a declaration reaffirming Israel's firm rejection of international mandates concerning a permanent settlement with the Palestinians. The declaration emphasized that any such settlement should be achieved exclusively through direct negotiations between the two parties, without any preconditions. Importantly, the declaration received unanimous approval from the cabinet, including members of the war cabinet such as Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot.
Furthermore, the declaratory statement proposed by Netanyahu to the Knesset reaffirms the rejection of unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state. The Knesset overwhelmingly approved the proposal, with 99 out of 120 members in favor, while 9 members opposed it. The text of the approved declaration states, "Israel will continue to oppose unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state". Such recognition, following the massacre of the 7th of October, will reward terrorism in an unprecedented manner and hinder any future peace settlement.
While maintaining this stance, it is important to note that neither the government nor the Knesset outright rejected the idea of a Palestinian state. Instead, they opposed its unilateral recognition by the international community, at least on the surface and as per their official statements, and tied such recognition to the existence of the Palestinian state through direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian people to establish such a settlement. However, these observations do not downplay the Israeli position on the Palestinian state, evident in both overt and covert actions, which involve rejecting its establishment and viewing it as a threat to Israel's security.
The Israeli government and Knesset's approach can be perceived as a strategic response to international pressure. They are careful not to explicitly oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state, as doing so would put them at odds with the international community and its desire for a solution. However, their stance also takes into consideration the crucial support they receive from the United States, both in the past and present. It is worth noting that the upcoming US elections, scheduled for November 5, 2024, present an opportunity for President Biden to strengthen his position by demonstrating some flexibility, even if only through his words.
2- Netanyahu's Opposition
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has actively opposed the establishment of a viable Palestinian state living alongside Israel, going against the two-state solution supported by international resolutions and Arab and international consensus. Netanyahu takes pride in his role as the Israeli leader who courageously stood against this possibility, even when it was just an implicit idea mentioned in the Oslo Accords. This opposition continued after the end of the transitional phase and the resolution of permanent status issues, which included settlements, borders, refugees, Jerusalem, and water.
More importantly, Netanyahu played a significant role in Israel's transition from the stage of resolving the conflict with the Palestinians to managing the conflict and ultimately settling it in favor of Israel, while disregarding Palestinian demands. The resolution stage was marked by the Oslo Accords, which lasted until 1999. Subsequently, the second Camp David talks in 2000 failed to achieve a comprehensive agreement on a permanent resolution. This was followed by the stage of managing the conflict by Netanyahu's successive governments, and then the stage of settling the conflict with the rise of his sixth and current government and the alliance with the extreme religious right represented by the Jewish Power party (Otzma Yehudit) and its leader Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the Religious Zionism Party and its leader Bezalel Smotrich.
During his time as prime minister, Netanyahu supported the religious and nationalist right, also known as the new right. This support involved uniting the religious and nationalist right and enabling them to take up various positions in the media, cultural institutions, and the emergence of a new right-wing elite from the Orthodox Jewish community. The right-wing promoted opposition and confrontation with the Israeli left and initiated campaigns against the "deep state," which was seen as being prevalent in the media, culture, judiciary, and security apparatus. They called for judicial reforms to free the right from the influence of the Supreme Court and to strengthen the authority of elected officials over those appointed by the government.
The coalition government, under the leadership of Netanyahu, does not recognize the potential for a Palestinian state. Instead, they assert that the Palestinian territories are Jewish lands and that Israel should exert control over the West Bank. Following Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, some of Netanyahu's allies argue that Israel should govern Gaza and reinstate settlements there. However, they defer to Netanyahu, who possesses international experience, to determine the optimal timing for announcing and implementing such measures.
3- Intransigence of the Extreme Religious Right
The prevailing right-wing climate in Israel has led to the legitimization of the Jewish Power party. Despite being initially outlawed due to its racist views, the party's leader, Ben-Gvir, has now become an active member of the government and a significant ally in the existing coalition. The Jewish Power party advocates for the expulsion of Palestinians and considers the West Bank an integral part of Israel's territory. This ultra-nationalist party firmly rejects the establishment of a Palestinian state and calls for the continuation of the conflict in Gaza, even encouraging settlers to return there. Ben-Gvir goes as far as urging his followers to block international aid to Gaza, at the request of Netanyahu.
A poll conducted by the Israeli newspaper Maariv on February 9, 2024, revealed significant shifts in the Israeli political landscape and public opinion. The poll showed a rise in popularity for Minister of National Security, Ben Gvir, and his party Jewish Power. Jewish Power advocates for ethnic cleansing throughout historical Palestine. The strength of this faction has more than doubled.
The power of Jewish Power was further enhanced after the October 7th assault. Initially, there was media and public condemnation directed towards Ben-Gvir for escalating tensions regarding Jerusalem, prisoners, and the Al-Aqsa Mosque. However, his position changed during the ongoing war. Ben-Gvir gained popularity among the Jewish religious right by providing arms to settlers and leading a campaign to prevent aid from reaching Gaza.
The Religious Zionist Party, led by Smotrich, is a significant component of Netanyahu's ruling coalition. With 14 seats in the Knesset, Smotrich's party holds two ministerial positions in the current government: the Ministry of Finance and later the Ministry of Defense. As a result, they now possess civil administrative powers and the authority to grant building permits.
Smotrich is the proponent of the Determination Plan, which was published in 2017. This plan argues that Israel has made mistakes in its policies towards Palestinians by encouraging their aspirations for an independent state. Smotrich advocates for a decisive resolution of the conflict, which involves settlement, confiscation, expulsion, and displacement.
Under Smotrich's plan, Palestinians are divided into three categories. The first category consists of those who are willing to live in a Jewish Israeli state under Israeli laws and regulations. The second category includes those who reject this and wish to emigrate, with assistance from Israel. The third category comprises those who resist this project and are seen as deserving confrontation by the army and security forces. While the Israeli government has not formally adopted Smotrich's plan, its practices in the West Bank and Gaza appear to be practically influenced by it.
4- Israeli Opposition's Caution
The Israeli opposition is made up of several factions, including the 'There is a Future party' (Yesh Atid) led by opposition leader Yair Lapid, the 'Yamina' party led by Naftali Bennett, the 'Yisrael Beiteinu' (Israel Our Home) party led by Avigdor Lieberman, and the 'Labor' and 'Meretz' parties. Furthermore, the 'Blue and White party', led by Benny Gantz, has joined the government's war cabinet formed by the current administration.
The various political parties in Israel have different positions regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state. The Labor Party, known for initiating the Oslo Accords which ultimately failed, previously endorsed the creation of a Palestinian state, including Jenin. They also advocated for geographical separation between Israelis and Palestinians. On the other hand, the left-wing Meretz party supports the establishment of a Palestinian state. The Yisrael Beiteinu party, however, supports the idea of land and population exchanges to ensure the preservation of the Israeli state.
The events set in motion by Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and the subsequent Gaza war have had a profound effect on the overall atmosphere, leading to a rise in incitement and animosity towards Palestinians as a whole. The desire for revenge and the focus on war have grown, overshadowing any potential for peaceful coexistence. This shift in climate is anticipated to have an impact on the entire Israeli political landscape.
If we hypothetically consider that the leader of the Israeli opposition, Lapid, represents an indicator of the opposition's stance on the Palestinian issue, his statements are characterized by ambiguity and caution. Although Lapid supported the establishment of a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly on September 22, 2022, when he was Prime Minister, his statements after October 7, 2023, tended to be more ambiguous. He believes that "the issue of the Palestinian state is not yet resolved, and its consideration is postponed despite his support for this solution," due to the attacks on October 7. In an interview with the French channel LCI on November 5, 2023, Lapid defended settlements, considering them established on Promised Land belonging to the Jews.
On the other hand, Lapid criticized Netanyahu's position in the Knesset when presenting a proclamation rejecting unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state on February 21, 2024. He accused Netanyahu of inventing a threat that doesn't exist. Lapid told Netanyahu, "As you and I know, my connections with the American government are better than yours, so I went and checked with them. There is no such thing. There is not a single official in the world suggesting unilateral recognition of Palestine."
Yossi Beilin, one of the architects of the Oslo process, stated in an interview with the French news magazine website L'Obs (Le Nouvel Observateur) on October 13, 2023, that he continues to support the two-state solution within a confederation with Israel. He believes that while the two-state solution has become less likely in recent years due to Palestinian division, it remains a viable option. Beilin emphasizes that this solution would only be acceptable if both Palestinians and Israelis agree to it.
In the same context, Ehud Olmert, the former Israeli Prime Minister, emphasized the importance of Israel presenting a political solution for the post-Hamas era. He endorsed the two-state solution and the establishment of a Palestinian state. Olmert stated, "Resuming negotiations with the Palestinian Authority regarding the two-state solution to end this historical conflict" is necessary. He also noted that the international community would accept a transitional period in Gaza if negotiations on the two-state solution were taking place. Olmert referred to his comprehensive peace plan from 2008, which aimed to resolve the conflict and establish a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.
In any case, the current map of Israeli political and party positions on the Palestinian state remains unclear. This uncertainty is closely tied to the ongoing war in Gaza and the success of Arab and international efforts to achieve a comprehensive solution. These efforts include securing a ceasefire, facilitating prisoner exchanges, and ultimately bringing an end to the war on Gaza. The international community, as well as the United Nations, supports these endeavors. It is worth noting that history has the potential to repeat itself, as it did after the October 1973 war. However, it is important to acknowledge that we are now in a new era, characterized by different internal and international circumstances and involving various actors with varying degrees of influence.
