After years of diplomatic tension, France and Italy signed on November 26 a historic cooperation agreement - namely, the French-Italian Enhanced Cooperation Treaty, with the aim of putting an end to the dissension between the two countries, which particularly surfaced in 2019, only to take a more discrete form in 2020 and 2021.
French-Italian relations
February 2019 witnessed the worst diplomatic disagreement between France and Italy since World War II. The conflicts started in 2018 when Italian Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio met leaders of 'The Yellow Vests', a French opposition political movement. The meeting was opposed by the French government, which recalled its ambassador to Italy for consultations.
Despite the French vehemence, Di Maio refused to back down. On the contrary, he stressed that he did not regret meeting the leaders of the French protests, and said that he had the right to establish a dialogue with other political forces representing the French people. It seems that the tension between Paris and Rome became all the worse when the Populists, especially the Five Star Movement and the League, came to power in 2018, because of the following four reasons:
1. Macron's ideological beliefs are completely different from those of Italy's leaders:
Perhaps this is most evident in their different attitudes to the European Union. On one hand, France's Macron supports the EU policies and goals, such as creating a European army and making Neoliberal economic policies. On the other hand, Italy's Right-wing government never tires of stressing that the EU is responsible for the austerity policies, which the Italians have to suffer from, cleaving to nationalist ideas.
2. The two governments are at odds over the immigration file:
With the rise of the right-wing, in June 2018, a French-Italian rhetorical war broke, following Rome's refusal to receive a ship crossing the Mediterranean with more than 600 immigrants onboard. France was highly critical of Rome's attitude, describing it as 'disgraceful and irresponsible'. In retaliation, Italy said it refused to take lessons from a hypocritical country, which preferred to turn a blind eye to its international responsibility towards the immigration issue. Amid the heated debate, there were insinuations that the meeting between Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and French President Emmanuel Macron would be called off. The crisis was not resolved until Spain agreed to receive the ship. In a different context, Di Maio accused France of establishing poverty in Africa, which caused huge numbers of Africans to leave their countries for Europe.
3. The two countries have conflicting interests in Libya:
The conflict between Paris and Rome concerning Libya was the last straw. It all began when Italy realized that France was seeking to compete with it in Libya and was by no means willing to accept such a thing. Libya has always been a strategic base for Rome, or rather an Italian sphere of influence in Africa. In addition, Libya is a major importer of Italian goods, and many Italian energy companies have invested in Libya, perhaps the most important of which is Eni.
There has been a cut-throat competition between France and Italy in Libya. Rome supported the government of National Accord of the west, whereas France backed General Khalifa Haftar in the east, as it has its eyes on Libya's east and Oil Crescent, both of which have potential investments as well as the French Total-Energies is concerned. Thus, Italy and France wound up supporting two conflicting parties fighting a civil war not very far from Europe.
4. The conflict has even reached the Maghreb:
The tension between France and Italy was even reflected in both countries' relations with Algeria. Macron continually criticized the Algerian government, and even challenged the belief that there was an Algerian nation before the French occupation of Algeria. By contrast, there was a rapprochement between Italy and Algeria which was crowned by a visit the Italian president paid to Algeria early in November. Analysts described this visit as an attempt on Italy's part to present itself to Algeria as an alternative to France.
Besides, it is obvious that Italy implicitly supports the Polisario Front, whose leaders are on good terms with Algeria, while France implicitly supports the Moroccan viewpoint concerning the Western Desert Conflict. France, however, is cautious enough not to follow the example of the USA which openly recognized Morocco as the legitimate owner and ruler of the Western Desert, lest French interests in Algeria should be harmed. French presence and role in Algeria have already declined significantly in the past two years in favor of such countries as Turkey, China and Italy.
Motives for enhancing relations
As Mario Draghi became Italian Prime Minister in February 2021, he and Macron agreed that they should work to end the tension and improve the relationship between their countries. Though the Draghi government still includes elements from the Five Stars as well as the League, these two movements have become less influential than they used to be. Therefore, their anti-France influence is no longer strongly valid.
The new agreement between France and Italy calls up to mind the Elysée Treaty of 1963, which has constituted the basis of relationships along the Rhine ever since. Similarly, the Quirinale Treaty will lay the foundation for developing the relationship between the two countries in several areas. The motives that urged France and Italy to sign the treaty can be summed up as follows:
1. Adopting a proactive approach to European developments:
The treaty is signed in a politically critical period, so to speak. For one side, there is Brexit. In addition, the Merkel epoch, with its huge influence on European politics, is over. This opens the door to new alliances. As a result, France and Italy decided to lay disagreements aside and enhance their relation so as to prevent further European dissension, especially as Draghi's European policies are very similar to Macron's.
2. Securing Italian support of Paris against London:
Paris is seeking to tip the European balance in its own favor following its severe conflicts with Britain. Macron was sharply criticized by London; he was accused of using immigration crisis as a bargaining chip to have leverage over Britain, just like Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is doing on the border with Poland. Therefore, the French need to secure Rome's support against London.
3. Hedging against the yet-to-be-known German policies:
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel always resisted Macron's projects at the core of which there was always the advocacy of European autonomy. As Merkel is about to leave, France is experiencing a state of uncertainty concerning the way Paris-Berlin relations will develop. This is simply because each party in the new German coalition cabinet adopts a principle that gives Paris reason to be concerned. For instance, there are the weak defense policies of the Democratic Socialists, and the economic austerity of Liberal Democrats, not to mention the Greens' hostile attitude towards the nuclear plans of Paris. Therefore, the treaty is an attempt on France's part to protect itself against changes in German policies.
Reshaping the map of Europe
The treaty is expected to have important implications on Europe, which can be summed up as follows:
1. The center of influence will move to the south of Europe:
Analysts claim that the Quirinale Treaty will move the center of influence in Europe to the south, probably enhancing understanding not only between France and Italy but also with other countries such as Greece, Spain, Cyprus and Malta.
Besides, regional policies will be more inclined to enhancing European integration, notably in defense projects, as some European countries will become oriented towards fostering the continent's ability to take autonomous military action. It is noteworthy that this new orientation is supported by US President Joe Biden.
2. Europe will accept French policies:
Analysts believe that the treaty will be warmly welcomed by minor EU countries. After all, France and Germany have always been accused of ignoring the opinions of such countries and dominating the decision-making process in Brussels. The Quirinale Treaty, together with the Joint Defense Agreement with Greece, shows that Paris is looking forward to varying its alliances so as to enhance its status in the international system, and to overcome the loneliness it has experienced since London, Washington and Canberra formed the AUKUS alliance.
3. Paris and Rome will achieve an understanding regarding Libya:
The treaty will likely have an influence on the Libyan crisis in which France and Italy were major competitors. Reaching an understanding concerning Libya will prevent clash between the two countries, and may help make the upcoming Libyan election successful. France and Italy may even agree to support one candidate.
4. The French-Italian tensions will be alleviated:
The treaty is expected to alleviate the Paris-Rome problems, probably the most important of which is the fierce conflict between the French Naval Group and the Italian Fincantieri concerning exporting naval weapons to a number of countries. Another is the Italian accusation that Paris does not want to extradite 14 Italians who were involved in terrorist activities before they fled to France. Paris denies such an accusation, contending that Italy has not officially asked French authorities to extradite them.
In conclusion, it can be stated that though putting the new treaty into effect will largely depend on the results of the upcoming elections on the two sides of the Alps, the treaty's regional implications, both for Europe and for the east of the Mediterranean, cannot be overlooked. Paris and Rome are expected to work together to solve the issue of immigration to Europe, and adopt joint attitudes regarding the future of the continent, the conflict in the east of the Mediterranean and the crisis in Libya.
