The former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, on June 20, announced that the Knesset passed an initial vote to disband after lawmakers voted unanimously on June 22. The development means that Israel is set for snap elections in late October this year. The, then, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid will officially take over as caretaker prime minister and keep the foreign ministry portfolio under the terms of a coalition agreement made last year with outgoing Prime Minister then Naftali Bennett, who will become deputy prime minister while also handling the Iran issue.
Motives of the decision
The most important causes of the Bennett government’s resignation can be outlined as follows:
1- Loss of parliamentary majority:
The Israeli “change government” lost parliamentary majority after Knesset members pulled out of the coalition backing it, which left a 59-member coalition, an unsustainable number in the 120-seat parliament. This prevented the government from passing its legislative agenda and in particular a legislation for emergency regulations for Judea and Samaria.
2- Failure to pass the Judea and Samaria Bill:
The opposition led by former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is also leader of the Likud party, managed to vote down an extension of the Judea and Samaria Settlement Regulation Law, commonly known as the Judea and Samaria law or as the Regulation Law. Only 52 members voted in favor while 58 members, including two Arabs, voted against. The bill proposes to extend, for another five years, the validity of the Emergency Regulations in the West Bank. As per the law, Israel’s criminal law and part of the civil law would apply to Israeli citizens living in the occupied West Bank. In other words, the law ensures that settlers living in the West Bank will be treated as if they were living in Israel.
Because the bill was not passed, Israel is facing significant issues regarding how settlers in the West Bank are treated. They cannot be referred to Israeli courts for committing offenses in the West Bank. Moreover, Israeli authorities are unable to arrest Israeli citizens who violate the law inside Israel and escape to the West Bank. The bill would also extend application of Israeli laws to Israeli settlers in the West Bank.
The law was enacted after the 1967 Six Day War, and is extended every five years as an “emergency measure”. The law, last extended in 2017, expired at the end of June this year. It should be noted that this is the first time that the extension of the law has not been approved because of the rift inside the Knesset and the Likud’s attempt to block the move to embarrass and place pressure on Bennett’s government to force it to resign. Commenting on the result of the vote and the government’s failure to pass the legislation for emergency regulations for Judea and Samaria, Likud Knesset member Yariv Levin said “a government that is unable to pass basic Zionist and security laws has no right to exist."
3- Anticipating Netanyahu's moves:
The Israeli media reported that Netanyahu was going to try to use the time left until the vote on disbanding the Knesset to attract former members of the Bennett-Lapid coalition to form an alternative government without going to early elections. Netanyahu did try to attract rebel Yamina MK Nir Orbach, who left the coalition and who was planning to back the opposition’s plans, according to statements made on June 20 by Yair Lapid who confirmed that the Likud attempted to topple the government by promising to give Orbach a ministerial portfolio in the new government.
4- Domestic and foreign pressures:
Bennett’s government came under pressure from Likud which criticized rightist Bennett’s policies for being far from being rightist and failed to deter Israel’s enemies and those causing damage to its national interests.
On the other hand, the left-wing and Arab members of Bennett’s government were not satisfied by the government’s escalatory policies on the Palestinians, its attempt to block talks with them as well as its policy on Jerusalem. The United Arab List, a member of the coalition, suspended its support for the government following surging violence in Jerusalem and the Aqsa Mosque.
Implications of the government’s resignation
The implications of the resignation of Bennett’s government and Lapid’s taking over can be outlined as follows:
1- Using the resignation for electoral purposes:
It became evident that Bennett’s government sought to take advantage of the disbanding of the Knesset to prepare for the next elections. Both Bennett and Lapid, in statements given to announce plans to dissolve the Knesset on June 20, talked about their government’s achievements over the past year, especially regarding the economy, blocking efforts to reach a nuclear deal with Iran as well as confrontations with Hamas.
Bennett and Lapid criticized a wave of defections to rival parties and described the behavior as “political childishness”. They were referring to defections from the “change government” that led to its collapse, and to decisions by MK Orbach and two Arab members to vote against the government’s proposed legislations such as the Judea and Samaria law.
On the other hand, Bennett’s government is well aware that its popularity declined as shown by polls. This prompted it to go for early elections to present itself as a government that is eager to serve national interests, emphasize its respect for the values of democracy and eventually embarrass its rival Netanyahu and show him as someone hanging on to power, especially after he served as prime minister for 12 years in a row until early 2021 only to fail, in the last two years of his tenure, to form a government despite holding early elections for three times.
Head of the caretaker government Yair Lapid stressed that he will be working on addressing rising cost of living as well as countering Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah and, hinting to Netanyahu himself, any other forces threatening to transform Israel into a non-democratic state.
2- Upholding a tight security policy:
The resignation of the government is not expected to impact Israel’s military and security decisions. The term of Lieutenant General Aviv Kochavi, chief of staff, expires in January 2023 i.e. after the early elections are held in October this year.
On the other hand, Lapid might well take advantage of any new military or security escalation during his term, either at the regional level with Iran or at home, with the Palestinians and Arabs, so as to reinforce his popularity and present himself as a strong leader who can make bold decisions, especially as he will not need support from the Knesset, which was already disbanded.
3- Concerns over stalemate:
Assessments have it that Netanyahu preferred to avoid going to early elections as he is aware that if he fails to form a government following the October elections, he will lose support from his own party, the Likud. Moreover, Netanyahu's corruption trial and the legacy of his policies might dissuade Knesset members, even from the rightist parties, to back him.
Despite that, Netanyahu may seek to present himself as Israel’s strongman who can form an extremist rightist government that embraces strict security policies against Arabs and the Palestinians, especially after a surge of threats to Israel’s security.
Although public opinion polls in Israel show that Netanyahu is the potential winner, they, at the same time, show that he and his allies will not be able to win a comfortable majority and so he will need to forge alliances with non-rightist forces, such as the United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas. The problem, however, is that Netanyahu rejects such an alliance because he is concerned that would come up with another weak government with contrasting ideological views. Netanyahu earlier emphasized that he was seeking to form a rightist government that can restore security for the Israelis.
On the other hand, parties that are part of the current government coalition are seeking to prevent Netanyahu from making a comeback to power. This was clearly expressed by Minister of Finance Avigdor Lieberman, Minister of Justice Gidon Sa’ar, who noted that the goal of the upcoming election is to prevent Netanyahu from coming back to power and from using the state to serve his own personal interests.
In conclusion, there are assessments expecting that Israel will be going through political and security turmoil, especially because that holding of a fifth election will result in a crisis of forming a new coalition government because of failure of any coalition to win a comfortable majority involving parties with uniform ideological principles, public opinion polls show.
