On May 13, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Andrey Belousov, a civilian economist, as the new Minister of Defense. This move aims to optimize the defense budget, foster innovation to achieve victory in Ukraine and address corruption within the military. Belousov replaces Sergey Shoigu, a close ally of Putin, marking the most significant shift in the Russian military hierarchy since the onset of the military operation in Ukraine.
A Necessary Risk
Appointing a civilian economist to the highest military rank in the Russian army, one of the world's most powerful is a risky move necessitated by the context within the Russian military. This decision indicates that Putin does not trust his military commanders and fears a repeat of the Wagner crisis within the Russian army. Additionally, Belousov, being close to Putin, is expected to curb the influence of Russian commanders. Replacing Shoigu with Belousov is anticipated to lead to a series of extensive internal changes within the Russian military leadership. The motivations behind this change can be outlined as follows:
1. An urgent economic mission:
The appointment of veteran economist Andrey Belousov as the head of the Russian Defense Ministry follows his active role in mitigating the impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy after the attack on Ukraine. Belousov played a key role in preparing the Russian economy to withstand these sanctions, significantly reducing their impact on domestic conditions. His efforts led to unexpected economic resilience, which both Western and international institutions acknowledged.
2. Fears of rebellion and concerns about efficiency:
Putin's recent move clearly indicates ongoing concerns post the Wagner crisis and the rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. Analysts suggest that appointing a civilian to lead the Ministry of Defense aims to tighten control over the military and prevent potential rebellions. Regarding efficiency, despite recent advances by the Russian army in Ukraine, Putin remains skeptical of the competence and efficiency of several military leaders, particularly given their initial assessments that the conflict would last only a few months, while the war has extended for two years without a clear end in sight.
3. Addressing ongoing sanctions and declining supplies:
One of Putin's main goals in dismissing Shoigu and appointing a trusted economic expert as a leader of one of the world's largest armies is to prepare for the upcoming confrontations on the Ukrainian front, especially with the imminent arrival of American and Western weaponry supplies to Ukraine. Additionally, this move aims to address the continued Western sanctions and restrictions on the Russian arms industry, which limit Russia's ability to import precise and advanced equipment for producing missiles, air defense systems, and aviation technology. Putin believes that an economic mindset and an independent figure are capable of tackling these challenges.
Relying on Victory in Ukraine
President Putin has pledged victory over the West to secure the loyalty of voters who overwhelmingly supported him for a fifth six-year term. It is given that Putin would not accept starting his new term with a failure to fulfill his most prominent promises. He has expressed dissatisfaction with the recent limited advances on the Ukrainian front, especially in light of increasing rumors about the levels of training and professionalism of Russian combat forces, coupled with corruption incidents involving senior military commanders. Therefore, the primary objectives of this change can be identified as follows:
1. Reordering Priorities
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the change is logical at a time when military allocations have approached 8%, nearing the levels of the mid-1980s in the former Soviet Union. Peskov stated that it is necessary to ensure this spending aligns with and integrates into the country's general economy more efficiently. Hence, Putin wants to appoint a civilian economic expert as Minister of Defense. Belousov has played a significant role in overseeing the Russian drone program. Moreover, the recent appointments come as Russian forces advance in four areas along the front line in Ukraine.
2. Preparing for a Long Battle with the West
The Russian president views the war with Ukraine as a war with the West and is doing everything he can to bolster his position in a conflict expected to be prolonged. The confrontation with the West is likely to continue, given that Western powers remain steadfast in refusing Putin's terms for starting negotiations. This means that Belousov is Putin's most realistic option for rationalizing military spending and combating corruption in preparation for a long battle. Putin aims to avoid falling into the trap of economic attrition that ensnared the former Soviet Union. Therefore, he seeks to ensure the optimal utilization of resources to guarantee a sustainable war production effort that supports the military endeavor without exhausting the Russian economy.
3. A Profound Strategic Shift
The dismissal of Sergey Shoigu is not solely indicative of failures and corruption but also a comprehensive strategic shift in Putin's management of the war with Ukraine. This shift moves from reliance on military officials to dependence on loyal civilian leaders. Belousov, a longtime associate of Putin, has served as a special economic advisor since 2012 and was instrumental in convincing Putin of the importance of the digital economy. This context led Putin to choose him in an effort to modernize the military forces. Belousov's appointment may pave the way for similar appointments and an increased reliance on civilians if he succeeds in his new role. If fully adopted, this policy could indicate a long-term shift in Russia's governance system.
4. Extending Influence and Curbing Corruption
Belousov's appointment represents an effort to exercise influence and control, as Putin aims to tighten his grip on military affairs. Amidst efforts to enhance the role of the military-industrial complex as a major economic driver, this move seeks to control defense spending, which reached a record USD 118.5 billion. It also aims to balance the military's control over the Ministry of Defense by introducing a civilian technocrat to curb high corruption rates and press military leaders to prove their capabilities based on precise standards, free from personal biases and considerations.
A Quiet Execution of the Decision
Putin has taken several measures to ensure the smooth implementation of the decision, including:
1. Reassigning Shoigu and Patrushev
Following Belousov's appointment, the Kremlin announced that President Putin wants Sergey Shoigu, who has overseen defense since 2012 and is a longtime confidant and ally, to be appointed as the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, replacing Nikolai Patrushev. Shoigu will also take on responsibilities for the military-industrial complex. Patrushev's future role has not been announced, while his son has been appointed deputy prime minister. This move is an attempt by Putin to appease symbols of his old regime and reorganize affairs within the Russian army and the military establishment.
2. Anticipating Military Leadership Reactions
Despite gaining more influence, especially after his inauguration for a fifth term with significant voter support, sudden changes within the top ranks of the Russian military could have broad repercussions. Lower ranks fear they might also face changes amid reports of rampant corruption within the military establishment. To reassure these ranks and avoid negative impacts on military morale during the ongoing battles in Ukraine, Putin appointed Shoigu as the head of the National Security Council, signaling no intention to interrogate him.
3. Retaining Gerasimov
Putin retained Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, who plays a crucial role in combat operations. This decision indicates that there will be no changes to the confrontation strategy at the frontlines. Keeping Gerasimov in his position signals that Russia's current military system will remain intact, and Belousov's appointment is focused on achieving governance goals for the military revealed by the ongoing war in Ukraine. These goals include addressing concerns about the prolonged conflict with the West and developing the military industry to rival major powers, thus preventing any delays in organizational and combat effectiveness.
In conclusion, Belousov's appointment is likely to be accompanied by a Putin-backed campaign to address corruption, improve oversight within the Ministry of Defense, and enhance cooperation with the defense industrial base crucial for winning the war. The new defense minister will aim to coordinate the relationship between the military economy and other sectors of the Russian economy, addressing the challenges of the war in Ukraine while reorganizing and adapting Russia's industrial base for a long-term confrontation with the West. This development ensures Russia's ability to sustain the conflict.
