In choosing the subject of this piece I was torn between commenting on the results of the American election or the proliferation of conflicts and inhuman practices in the Middle East. Much can already be said about the elections even before results are announced. However, having previously addressed the state of international disorder, and given the tragic losses we are seeing throughout the Middle East, I chose to focus on our region and on what is required from Arab States in particular to address such issues.
The Middle East is being reconfigured geographically, politically, economically, socially, and in terms of national security. These long-reaching strategic changes should compel Arab states to engage proactively, on the individual and sub-regional levels as well as a collective Arab group. Political apathy is the geopolitical equivalent of allowing a cancer to grow unabated or progress untreated.
On the positive side, it is important to note that the Arab world’s demographic composition, with high percentages of youth, has increasingly generated synergies for thought about the future. Indeed, younger populations provide opportunity to establish greater forward-looking national constituency ownership with higher levels of accountability and transparency—conditions sine qua non for efficient governance.
At the same time, there are numerous reasons to be concerned. Territorial disputes in the region are widespread, especially but not exclusively between Arab and non-Arab states, who either claim sovereignty or impose de facto jurisdiction. Political conflicts have proliferated within and across sovereign borders. Economic and resource-related challenges have intensified, drawing in players from within and beyond the region. There are also challenges in the domain of energy and maritime access and security.. State and non-state parties have attempted to forcefully export their ideologies to others before recalibrating policies and practices to achieve geopolitical regional objectives through national security tools. Perhaps most alarming of all is the increasingly recurrent use of force to resolve conflicts. This trend has been met with tepid regional and international responses, which can be interpreted as acquiescence to these practices as long as they remain contained to the region.
Time for Action
Despite acute global polarization, the “Summit for the Future” was just convened by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres this fall in New York, with the specific objective of invigorating multilateralism and collective responsibility in the twenty-first century. In this context, it is time for concrete Arab action and consequential policy decisions towards transgressional neighbors, as well as a proactive vision of the future of geopolitics in the Middle East, including the conditions and processes for the development of constructive and mutually beneficial relations with all Arabs and non-Arabs states.
Some will quickly argue that the region and its respective individual states cannot sustain additional military conflict. Correct or not, that is really a moot point. This is not a call for war but rather a call for political action with teeth and significant consequences. Inaction as injustice prevails and the use of force expands will inevitably bring wars, conflicts, and violence straight to all our doorsteps.
There will also be those who argue that the Arab world is not in a position to rock the boat or engage in reshaping the region, falling back on the old adage that “what you know is better than what you don’t know.” In doing so, these proponents ignore their regional reality, which is testimony that change has been occurring around them, loud and clear, mostly at their expense. Audaciously, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Israel is “changing the Middle East,” which was immediately followed by Israeli transgressions throughout the Levant in Lebanon, Syria, all way to Yemen.
In all candidness, I am deeply concerned about these trends and developments, which are redefining and reconfiguring the Middle East, mostly at the expense of Arab national interests. Furthermore, I see no immediate resolution to the ongoing discord and absence of any sense of humanity. We are truly at a crossroads and in the absence of real statesmen, the most immediate developments will only be worse. Nevertheless, this is not the time for complacency or apathy.
Given that present actions are a blatant violation of international law, Arab members of the United Nations, with previous non-aligned members and as many members of the Security Council, should immediately table a resolution in the Council calling upon Israel to terminate all cross-border operations and instating a ceasefire, irrespective of the positions of one or more permanent member.
Recommended actions can be summed up in the following steps:
1. Arabs should embrace incremental change to fulfill the aspirations of their youthful constituencies. Building stronger foundations and national security capacities will thus safeguard them against shockwaves propagated by injustice, inequality, and frustration.
2. Arabs must recalibrate, diversify and rebalance their regional and global relations to reduce dependence on any sole power. Thus, they should enhance their respective political and security capacities in order to create more balanced, stable, and mutually beneficial regional relations with their neighbors. This must be the beginning of steps to enhance credibility and political influence, without which their projective regional suggestions will be ignored by adversaries and fall on deaf ears amongst domestic constituencies.
3. Arabs should proactively provide visions of the future towards a more equitable security architecture in the Middle East that is more beneficial to Arabs to preempt attempts by others to redefine and redesign the region into alliances serving its interests alone. This can best be done through a two-track regional framework document first suggested by and discussed within the Arab states before submitting it or versions of it to non-Arab parties in the region.
The first track would reaffirm the United Nations Charter and highlight Principles of state-to-state good neighborly relations and those of particular relevance to the region, such as the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by force. The second track would offer a regional National Security Consultative Structure that prioritizes conflict resolution through diplomacy, crisis management as well as regional threat reduction and disarmament. Those who adopt, respect, and implement the principles suggested would be invited to engage on the second more consultative track.
These are challenging times in the Middle East and beyond. Many will legitimately question whether this is an opportune moment for forward-looking regional efforts; I myself dwell on this often. However, my conclusion is that the inevitable high cost of non-engagement is daunting, particularly for the weak or ineffective, and this is a shrill call for action before it is too late.
