Renewed popular protests, led by the two main ethnic groups in Ethiopia (the Oromo and the Amhara) in October 2016, raised questions about the possibility that demonstrations could escalate into a so called “Ethiopian Spring” that would drastically change the country’s governance approach. The future of the Ethiopian regime is at stake, given doubts about its ability to rein in the demonstrations, the future direction of its political reforms and grievances among the country’s various ethnic groups - especially in light of US criticism of Addis Ababa after declaring a state of emergency in response to the protests.

Reasons behind the protests

The Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which has ruled Ethiopia since 1991, has faced sporadic street protests since November 2015, in over 130 cities across the country. The protests broke out in response to a plan by the federal government to expand the capital, Addis Ababa, onto the Oromo people’s territories. The plan would have split the ethnic group among different provinces, damaging its cultural distinctiveness and reducing its power.

Despite the fact that the government shelved the plan to expand the capital, the Oromo protests continued. They were followed, in July, by new demonstrations in regions dominated by the Oromo and the Amhara, an unprecedented alliance between the two groups. The protests spread to over 200 cities and villages. Tensions intensified after at least 55 people were killed in a stampede after police fired tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse the crowd that was demonstrating during an Oromo cultural event on October 2.

While these reasons are what triggered the protests expansion in the regions of Oromia and Amhara, their size, durability and the threat, they pose to the regime, come from a legacy of oppression by the EPRDF, (dominated by ethnic Tigrayans), against other ethnic groups in Ethiopia during its long reign. The Oromo and Amhara people have been deprived of many political and economic rights, notably the Oromo people, who represent an average of 40 per cent of the country’s citizens and were oppressed under Emperor Haile Selassie I. The Amhara people, who form around 25 per cent of the population, had a certain amount of autonomy during Selassie’s reign and under Communist military rule from 1974-1991.

The EPRDF failed to create an “ethnic federation,” the model adopted by the country’s 1994 constitution, which would have helped tackle a crisis of national integration in Ethiopia. The model would have divided the country into nine federal states and the capital, according to the ethnic majority in each, and gave every group the right to decide its future and even to secede from Ethiopia under conditions set by the constitution. This federal template aimed to prevent the dominance of a single ethnic group over the country’s political and economic spheres, giving all Ethiopia’s ethnicities a chance to participate in the government. However, the EPRDF abandoned these principles, and similar to its predecessors, worked to empower one ethnic group, the Tigrayans (who make up only six per cent of the population) over the rest.

The EPRDF also adopted a form of superficial democracy, which gives the appearance of other parties’ participation that represented different ethnic groups into a coalition government. However, these parties were mainly loyal to the EPRDF rather than the communities they were meant to represent. The four parties in the governing coalition are the Oromo Peoples' Democratic Organization (OPDO), the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), the Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement (SEPDM) and Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

OPDO, despite its name, was set up by the ruling party in the Tigray region - not in the region of Oromia - and does not represent the Oromo people. The ruling party classifies the Oromo Liberation Front as a terrorist organization. It was part of the governing coalition until 1992 but returned to armed conflict - as did the Amhara party, the leading supporter of the federal system, which nonetheless lacks legitimacy and the ability to influence its people. 

Responses to the protests

The ruling party has responded to the escalating protests with various means that reflect the dilemma facing the EPRDF, both domestically and abroad: 

1. Use of excessive force against protesters in Oromia, Amhara and other parts of Ethiopia: The government has arrested up to 1,000 opposition activists and journalists, and killed at least 400 people, indicating that the ruling party has lost control over the situation when it began using force against its rivals.
2. Portraying the domestic crisis as having international dimensions: The regime has accused Eritrea and Egypt of supporting the Oromo Liberation Front with training and money to undermine Ethiopia’s stability. The government has used this accusation to justify its escalating violent approach against its rivals.
3. Blaming the opposition: domestically and abroad - for “unauthorized protests organized by anti-peace forces:” The government accused demonstrators of carrying arms and explosives, and labeled them as terrorists.
4. Cutting off internet access: To prevent protesters accessing social media websites.
5. Announcing a national state of emergency for six months: Giving the security forces extraordinary powers to arrest demonstrators and restrict freedom of speech.

The ruling party has been intensively criticized over its response to the protests and its intolerance towards the media and civil society its arrest of thousands of students, social media activists and the leaders of both opposition and pro-government parties. It has also charged dozens of people under a 2009 anti-terror law that was used by the government to restrict freedom of speech and to torture those who oppose the regime. Hundreds more have also been arrested without charges.

Human Rights Watch reported in June that more than 400 Oromo protesters were killed in November 2015, while the Ethiopian security services arrested thousands during the protests. The Ethiopian government has refused to allow a UN committee to carry out an investigation into how the police responded to the protests in Addis Ababa, Oromia, and Amhara in August, which resulted in several deaths.

Western support for Ethiopia

In recent years, Ethiopia implemented a series of reforms and development programs that have boosted economic growth. It has become one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, despite remaining one of the poorest. Ethiopia has also sought to play an active role in various regional and international issues, becoming a strategic east African ally to Western countries, especially the United States. The state is also an active participant in counter-terrorism and a supporter and implementer of Washington’s strategy in the region.

Despite being the second biggest recipient of aid in sub-Saharan Africa, receiving an average of $3.5 billion a year from international donors, much of that aid ends up supporting the ruling regime. Ethiopia, according to numerous reports by international agencies, is among the continent’s top human rights violators, with severe restrictions on freedom of expression, repressive measures - from torture to exile and execution of opposition political actors. 

The US government tends to overlook reports by human rights groups portraying Ethiopia as a police state with an apparatus of surveillance and control that permeates the entire society, including families, which ensure that Ethiopian authorities have used the 2009 anti-terrorism law to restrict freedom of expression and association. Despite these facts, the United States supports Ethiopia in several ways, considering it a strategic ally in the fight against terrorism in East Africa. It described the Ethiopian government as a “democratically elected” government and donated as much as $3 billion to the regime in 2015.

A repressive campaign that the Ethiopian government launched in 2005, which left 200 opposition activists dead, embarrassed international donors. In 2006, the World Bank said it would begin giving aid directly to local governments instead of the federal government. However, this strategy was not implemented, and the aid did not reach its intended recipients.

The Ethiopian authorities have also arrested at least 5,000 Oromos between 2011-2014. Amnesty International reports that since 2015 hundreds of people were killed in demonstrations in Oromo areas close to the capital, Addis Ababa. The New York Times recently criticized American policy towards Ethiopia, saying it has been covering up crimes committed by the government.

Reform or collapse?

In light of this international support for the regime - particularly from Washington - an important question arises: is it possible that protests in Ethiopia will bring down the regime?

The answer depends on two primary considerations. Firstly, how likely are the protests to continue and spread to other areas of the country? If the protesters insist on their demands and can win the support of larger segments of society, despite the government campaign of killing and arresting political rivals on a large scale, is it possible that the protests could bring down the ruling party - particularly since the Oromo and Amhara peoples constitute nearly 60 per cent of the country’s population?

Secondly, is Washington is willing to abandon the ruling regime in Ethiopia. Certain pressures could push Washington to change its alliances to avoid damaging its interests in East Africa. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s recent visit to Ethiopia came amid international efforts to limit the damage done by the protests and advise the government to find a way out of the crisis. Angela Merkel called on the authorities to broaden political participation in the country.

As Washington faces growing pressure from rights groups to withdraw the support - mainly military aid - it donates to the Ethiopian government. The State Department has expressed concern over the growing violence in the country and warned of the dangers posed by the state of emergency announced by Addis Ababa in October. At the same time, it welcomed promises by government officials to address the issues raised by the Oromo and Amhara protesters.

The Ethiopian government, sensing that continued protests would pose serious threats to the state, may seek to contain them, especially in light of pressure from its international allies. It may undertake reforms to avoid prolonged chaos and state collapse into domestic conflicts that would threaten the achievements the ruling party has made in its long years in power. The Ethiopian Prime Minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, gave a speech to Parliament in October in which he promised to change the electoral system, which currently restricts representation of the opposition stating that he would like to hear “alternative voices.”