The tensions between Iran and Afghanistan have escalated due to the dams’ projects which the latter intends to build on the Afghan river of Helmand that reaches Iran. These tensions indicate the extent of the intensified water conflicts between both countries. They also reveal the extent of Iran’s infiltration of Afghanistan and its sponsorship of Taliban to weaken the Afghan government. Iran is also employing other affairs to besiege the NATO’s and US’ expansion in its direct geographic surrounding and to threaten the American military presence in Afghanistan to preempt any possible American review of the nuclear agreement.
Dams’ War
The Iranian statements that oppose the Afghan dams’ projects sparked increasing protests by Afghans as many gathered in Helmand on July 9, 2017 to protest Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s statements in which he accused Afghanistan of mismanaging the dams and affecting water flows into Iran. Afghanistan viewed these statements as interference in its affairs.
The Iranian president has repeated his threats regarding Afghanistan’s building of dams on Helmand River. Rouhani accused Kabul of conducting activities that have destructive consequences in East Iran due to drought, including in the Baluchestan Province whose citizens accuse the Iranian government of adopting discriminatory policies against them. Rouhani has also publicly threatened: “Iran cannot keep silent over water resources’ degradation in border areas with Afghanistan.” Afghan President Ashraf Ghani responded to that by confirming Afghanistan’s intention to build more dams to improve the exploitation of natural resources.
This is all related to launching work in the Salma Dam project for producing electricity in Afghanistan in the beginning of 2017. The project is funded by India and its cost is USD 290 million. It was called the Afghan-India Friendship Dam. It provides the Afghan city of Herat with electricity and irrigates agricultural lands. This pushed Iran to further pressure Afghanistan to stop the dams’ projects.
In March 2017, the British daily, The Guardian, reported that the Afghan government intends to build the Kamal Khan Dam in Nimroz province, which is one of the poorest provinces. The aim of the dam is to develop agricultural activities to confront the residents’ reliance on smuggling drugs as a main source of income. The dam will irrigate 175,000 hectares of land, estimated to be equal to the area of London.
Within this context, Iran intensified its threats against water security in Afghanistan as in July 2017 Iranian President Rouhani criticized Afghan dams’ projects such as Kamal Khan, Kajaki and Salma in North and South Afghanistan claiming that they threaten Iranian security. The Afghan government protested to these statements and revealed that Iran built more than 30 dams on the rivers that flow to Afghanistan, thus, negatively affecting the flow of water into Afghanistan. It also said that Iran consumed huge quantities of water from Helmand and Harirod zones in Afghanistan.
It’s worth noting that the size of water resources in Afghanistan reaches around 70 billion cubic meters annually, but 80 percent of water flows into Iran, Pakistan and other neighboring countries in Central Asia. This pushed the Afghan government to establish several dams to benefit from water resources and produce electric power.
Infiltrating Afghanistan
Iranian-Afghan tensions are more than a mere conflict over water resources. Observing Iran’s foreign policy towards Afghanistan shows its ability to infiltrate Afghanistan over the past years. It also shows that Iran has employed several domestic parties, primarily Taliban, to achieve its interests. The most important features of Iran’s interferences in Afghanistan are:
1. Allying with Taliban: For several years, Iran maintained strong relations with Taliban. However, the indicators of the announced rapprochement between the two parties began to increase after opening a representative office for Taliban in the Iranian city of Mashhad. Killing Taliban’s leader Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour in Pakistan in May 2016 revealed strong ties between Iran and Taliban as Mansour had returned from Iran to Pakistan before he was killed.
The sectarian and religious disharmony between Taliban and Iran did not obstruct the rapprochement between them. In December 2016, Tehran hosted Taliban commanders during the Islamic Unity conference to bridge the gap between religious doctrines. Around the same time, Iranian ambassador to Afghanistan Mohammad Reza Bahrami said there were communication channels between his country and Taliban. Taliban’s official spokesperson Mullah Zabiullah said the movement “has good relations and contacts with Iran.”
Tehran depended on Taliban’s attacks to obstruct the Afghan dams’ projects before they are completed so it prevents their negative repercussions on water flows into Iran. Tehran also wants to confront forming an Afghan government, which is militarily strong, allying with the West and opposing Iranian policies. This was seen in Taliban’s attacks on the Salma Dam in June 2017 and its repeated attacks on the Kamal Khan Dam since the beginning of 2017.
2. Smuggling weapons: Helmand’s governor Hayatullah Hayat said in January 2017 that Iran gave Taliban Iranian missiles to attack Afghanistan’s infrastructure. He also revealed that Iranian officials met with some of Taliban’s leaders in Garmsir. He added that Afghan troops found the remains of Iranian-made missiles, which Taliban fired against Afghan troops in battles in the cities of Garmsir and Sangin.
Afghan security forces also found Iranian-made explosives, ammunition, mortar shells, automatic rifles, bombs and weapons, when then they raided arms warehouses for Taliban in 2016 and 2017. They also found material, which can be used to manufacture explosives. Afghan officials have repeatedly accused the Iranian Revolutionary Guards of training Taliban fighters in camps in the Iranian province of Kerman.
3. Recruiting refugees: In June 2017, New York Times reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards recruited Afghan refugees, particularly from the Shiite Hazaras to fight in Syria and Iraq and defend Shiite shrines. They formed Liwa Fatemiyoun in 2014, which is made up of Shiite Afghan refugees. In exchange, Iran provides the recruited men with salaries and compensations to their families. It also grants them the Iranian nationality and financially sponsors their parents. Iran deploys these military units in the front ranks in zones of military conflict in Syria. As a result, a big number of them get killed.
4. Increasing pressure: Iran adopts pressuring policies against the Afghan government in order to weaken the latter by supporting its political rivals, and enhancing Taliban’s political legitimacy. Tehran considers Taliban a political party that can be negotiated with upon support from Russia, which is playing a central role in sponsoring negotiations with the group.
Iran also increased its exploitation of the refugees’ case to pressure the Afghan government as in May 2017, it deported 130 Afghan refugees. International relief organizations estimated that at least 700,000 Afghan refugees of the 2.5 million Afghan refugees have been deported since 2016. Iran aims to deport the rest during the duration of 18 months and this will increase Afghanistan’s population by 10 percent. Some sources said this indicated Iran’s increased pressures on the Afghan government.
5. Targeting American troops: Some American military and security officials confirm that Iran manages a proxy military confrontation against the NATO and American troops present in Afghanistan. In February 2017, US commander in Afghanistan John Nicholson said during his testimony before the Senate that “Iranian and Russian activity in Afghanistan aims to undermine the role of the US and the NATO.”
Iran thinks that the American military presence in neighbouring countries, like Afghanistan and Iraq, and the NATO’s bases in Turkey aim to besiege Iran from different directions. This strengthens Iran’s adoption of policies that are based on “counter siege” of American troops by infiltrating countries, where these troops are stationed and by allying with local agents, whether they are terrorist organizations or militias. The aim of these alliances is to target American military presence in these countries.
In conclusion, it is probable for Iranian interferences in Afghanistan to increase as the US enhances its military deployment in the region to confront Taliban’s threats and increased military activities against the Afghan government and in areas where the NATO troops are stationed. Iran will increase its adoption of the “counter containment” strategy, while managing proxy wars against the US in order to confront any American attempt to pressure it on the militarily and political levels. It will further attempt to confront any scenario in which American President Donald Trump keeps his vow of reviewing the nuclear agreement.
