The Abu Dhabi based Future Center for Advanced Research and Studies published the 20th issue of its academic periodical Trending Events for March-April 2017 with a focus on several trends and controversial issues regionally and globally. The topics discussed include business mentality in running global affairs, cyberwars, managing conflicts in gray areas, assimilating armed elements in failed states, and policies to eliminate threats in North Africa.
Business Mentality
In the opening editorial titled “Trump’s Doctrine: Business Mentality in Running Global Affairs 2017-2021”, FARAS Director Dr. Mohamed Abdel-Salam argues that as Donald Trump assumed presidency and clashed with other US state institutions, international affairs have been governed by the logic of “business relations” and “deals”.
It is expected that Trump’s “contractual model” will be reflected in managing international relations, equivalent to project management, distribution of shares, short-term transactions governed by profit and loss, and dismissing strategic partnerships with other countries, which will affect international stability.
Cyberwars
Within the Future Study entitled “Cyberwars: Potential Implications of Growing Cyberattacks on the International Arena” by Sara Abdel-Aziz, International Relations Expert, focused on the escalating cyberwars. Such an escalation is correlated to several factors, most notably ease of digital hacking, lower cost of hacking, different nature from military confrontations, difficulty of finding perpetrators, lack of direct incriminating evidence and absence of a legal framework for penalizing the use of cyberspace to attack a country.
The study discusses the theoretical and applied approaches in dealing with cyberwars and its recent patterns. It further analyzes the map of the different stakeholders involved in cyberwars, with a focus on strategies to confront cyberattacks such as cyber defense, cyber deterrence and cyber diplomacy. Finally, Abdel-Aziz focuses on the implications of the cyberwars’ escalation on international relations.
Populism: My country First
The segment of Future Opinions offers answers to the various controversial key questions on the global scene. Khorshid Delli, Researcher in Turkish and Kurdish Affairs, discusses answers to “Will Cyprus Unite?” He focuses on the latest negotiations regarding the Cyprus issue. He further discussed the shifts in the positions and outlooks of domestic, regional and international parties, their agreements and disagreements, and challenges hurdling any progress in negotiations.
Dr. Osama Sweidan, Professor of Economics at the United Arab Emirates University, addresses the question of “What is the Future of Global Investments?” He analyzes the shift in the US position regarding trade flow and investments after Trump became US president. He further discusses the impact of Trump’s policies on global investment, and the possibility of fulfilling his campaign promises.
Dr. Nadia Saad-Elddin, Journalist and Political Science Researcher in Jordan, tackles the question: “Why have the Threat of Terrorism Networks Escalated?” The article focuses on the rise of trans-border terrorist networks, their use of cyberspace, and deteriorating economic and social conditions in some countries that collectively contribute to creating terrorism incubators and safe havens.
The issue also includes an article by Dr. Khaled bin Kiqu’, an Algerian Journalist, titled “My country first: How far will Neo-Nationalism Go?” The article addresses the features and prospects of the growing trend of neo-nationalism. The article explained extensively the implications of expanding nationalist trends on the domestic, regional and international levels, and their correlation to growing extremist practices, violence and intolerance.
Shadow Wars
The Future Analyses section includes several trends and phenomena in progress. Dr. Nathan W. Toronto, Associate Professor of Security and Strategic Studies at the UAE National Defense College, discusses weaponization of space in an article titled: “Star Wars: Scope of Conflict among Major Powers in Outer Space”.
Dr. Khaled Hanafi Ali, Researcher in African Affairs at Al-Ahram Foundation, writes an article titled “Eliminating Threats: Reasons for Adopting External Displacement of Threats Policies”, discussing the motives and contexts that allowed adopting policies to eliminate threats. It also assesses their effectiveness in addressing threats in North Africa.
Dr. Mohamed Ezz Al-Arab, a Regional Affairs Expert at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies and Managing Editor of the Arab Strategic Report, writes an analysis titled “Shadow Wars: Complications of Managing Gray-Area Conflicts in the Middle East”. It focuses on explaining the concept of gray-area conflicts, factors governing the rise of this type of conflict, and confronting non-traditional threats in such zones. Meanwhile, Dr. Mohamed Megahed Al-Zayyat, former Director of the National Center for Middle East Studies in Cairo, writes “Weak Balance: Policies to Assimilate Armed Militias in Failed States”.
Dollar Dominance
Concerning the emerging economic trends, Dr. Ghada Anis Al-Bayaa, Economics Professor at the Institute of African Research and Studies at Cairo University, writes about “Monetary Domination: Using the Dollar as a Tool of Foreign Policy”. The analysis deals with transformations in using the US dollar to influence international relations, reinforcing its domination over the global economic order, and alternatives adopted by major world powers to offset dollar dominance.
Dr. Ne’ma Zahran, Economic Expert, writes an article titled “Adaptation policies: the Shift in the Roles of Central Banks in Managing Economic Crises” focused on trends in global monetary policies and the challenges facing the future of central banks.
Chinese Globalization
Tamer Badawi, Researcher in political economics with an MA in international relations from Central European University, Hungary, writes an analytical piece titled “Chinese Globalization: The Beijing Map of Investments Around the World”. His analysis discusses the reasons for China’s investment expansionism, the Silk Road investments, and Chinese investment in high-risk economies.
The technological topics of the new issue include one by Dr. Fatemah Al-Zahraa Abdel-Fattah, an expert on media and communication technology, labelled “the Digital Gap: Problems of Adapting to Technological Transformations in the Arab World”. She analyzes the concept of digital readiness and its development. Al-Zahraa presents a comparative analysis for the levels of digital readiness in Arab countries and its impact on economic and social conditions.
Ehab Khalifa, Head of Monitoring Technological Developments Unite at FARAS, writes an article on “Artificial Intelligence: Impact of the Growing Role of Artificial Intelligence in the Daily Life” analyzing the sources of AI, growing AI applications and its complex security, economic, social and legal implications.
Survival Dilemmas
The Workshops section tackles key trends at FARAS panel discussions and events, including analyses of key topics at a seminar on “Challenges of Survival of the National State in the Arab World”. The main speaker was Dr. Abdel-Ilah Belkeziz, an Arab thinker and Professor of Philosophy at University of Hassan II, Casablanca. He discussed the dilemmas of forming a national government, its central crises and challenges to its survival.
The issue also includes a report on a workshop conducted by FARAS chaired by Fahd Malaika, Program Manager at the Near East and South Asia Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, USA, on the “Trump’s Administration Foreign Policy in the Middle East”.
Dr. Abdullah Al-Jasmi, Director of the Philosophy Department at Kuwait University answers difficult questions about the policies adopted by Arab Gulf countries in the face of fluctuating global oil prices in a lecture titled “New Policies: How Gulf Countries Deal with Fluctuations in Global Oil Prices”.
A workshop by FARAS with Dr. Magued Osman, Director of the Egyptian Center for Public Opinion Research (Baseera) reviewed the UN’s 2016 Development Report.
Isolation Walls
In the lead article of the segment, How Does the Other World Think? Leonid Savin, the Chief Editor of The Journal of Eurasian Affairs in Russia, discusses “Containment Policies: Western Moves to Restrain Russian Relations with Balkan Countries.” Moreover, Santiago Viar, Researcher at the Barcelona Center for International Affairs, Spain, presents an analytical piece labelled “Isolation Wall: Possible Tensions in Latin American Relations.” His analysis reviews the repercussions of US isolationist policies on its relations with Latin American countries.
Dr. Imtiyaz Ahmed, writes an article “Xenophobia: South Asian Countries Stir up Animosity against China” that focuses on several forms of animosity towards Chinese expansionism in Asia. Maris Audrey Ogontchi, Researcher on regional integration and governance, writes an analysis piece titled “Gambia’s Crisis: Threats of Military Intervention to Enforce the Outcomes of the Presidential Elections”.
Imbalance of Power
The State of the World section features transformations in US policies under Trump. In an analytical piece, Karen Abul Kheir, Editorial Adviser at Al-Siyassa Al-Dawliya magazine of Al-Ahram Foundation, highlights the current nationalist view of the current US administration in an article titled “America First: A Narrow View of National Interests Clashes with a Complicated Global Reality.”
The section State of the Middle East focuses on “Imbalance of Power: The Impact of Global Transformations on the Middle East Region”. Mustafa Shafik Allam, International Relations Expert, explores the overlap between global and regional transformations and the ongoing shifts in the Russian-Iranian alliance, in parallel with Trump’s administration active involvement in the Middle East based on several principles, including alliance of enemies, militarizing peace, and the priority of eradicating ISIS. The author also analyzes common views within global think tanks about the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey and possible accord based on common interests between the US and Russia in the Middle East. The issue also includes reviews of the most recent books published around the world in 2017.
An Era of Distrust
The Future Concepts supplement includes an analysis of theoretical concepts and frameworks associated with the “Growing Impact of Non-Material Power in International Relations”, namely post-realism and its impact on shifting the motives of global powers. Mayada Madbouli, PhD researcher on international relations at the Sorbonne, Paris, analyses the issue “Identity: The Impact of Values and Beliefs on International Relations”.
Dr. Shadi Abdel-Wahab, Executive Editor-in-Chief of Trending Events, focuses on “Fear: Prospects of Utilizing Perceived Threats in Foreign Policy”. Mona Mustafa Mohamed, a Researcher at FARAS, addresses the issue of “Lying: Non-Traditional Forms of Deception in Foreign Policy”. The supplement concludes with an analysis by Mohamed Nagi Abbas, an Expert at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, on “Doubt: Indicators of Growing Distrust in Relations between Countries”.
Arms and Military Spending
The Future Report supplement, “Military Balance: Armament Trends and Military Spending in the Middle East 2017”, was conducted on the occasion of the International Defense Exhibition (IDEX) in Abu Dhabi, UAE, on 19-23 February, 2017.
The supplement, edited and written by Mohamed Abdullah Younes, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the Faculty of Economics and Political Science in Cairo University, in cooperation with Dr. Shadi Abdel-Wahab, includes several key articles. Most notably, the main features of the state of global security in 2017, key transformations in arms exports around the world, the military balance in the Middle East, changes in defense economies in the region, flow of weapons, and regional arms deals. The supplement also observes the developments in military industrialization programs in the Middle East.
Finally, the supplement presents an infographic titled “Map of Global Armament,” which includes statistics about 16 countries with the largest military expenditure in 2016, maps of military spending, size of Armed Forces around the world, the share of the top ten arms exporters, analyses of weapons’ imports to Middle East countries, and percentage of military expenditure of GDP for all regional countries between 2011 and 2016.
