Italian PM Giorgia Meloni visited Libya on January 28, where she met with Abdul Hamid al-Dbeibeh, PM of the outgoing government of national unity. The two leaders signed a new gas deal which has proved controversial. 

Meloni in Tripoli 

The visit has carried significant implications, which can be summarised as follows: 

1. Intensive meetings: 

PM Meloni held intensive meetings with West Libya's leaders alongside Dbeibeh, and the president of the Presidential Council, Mohammed Al-Menfi. Meloni was accompanied by Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani and Matteo Piantedosi, minister of the interior. 

2. A new gas deal: 

Meloni oversaw the signing of an agreement between the Italian oil company Eni and the Libyan National Oil Organisation. Valued at $8 billion, the deal is Libya's most significant in the last two decades. 

The deal aims to enhance gas supplies to the European continent. It includes the development of two offshore gas fields in northern Libya, located in Block NC-41, which is planned to be connected to the processing facilities located in the Mleetiya complex west of Tripoli. The reserves of the two fields are about 6 trillion cubic feet in total. The project is expected to be completed in 2026, with a projected capacity of 850 million cubic feet per day for 25 years. 

3. Wide opposition in Libya: 

The gas agreement signed by the Dbeibeh government with Italy has been met with fierce opposition at home in Libya amid accusations that Dbeibeh is seeking to employ energy projects to ensure that his government remains in power. The head of the Libyan Stability Government designated by the parliament, Fathi Bashagha, criticised the recent Italian move in Tripoli, stating that the agreement reflects Italy's opportunism in the region. In contrast, some members of the Libyan House of Representatives expressed their objection to this agreement, considering that the Dbeibah government is illegitimate and is not authorised to broker any new agreements.

The new deal increased the foreign partners' share from 30% to 37%, which upset many parties in western Libya. Opposition was not limited to eastern Libya, but there were divisions within the Dbeibah government itself, which was reflected in the criticism of the oil minister of the Dbeibah government, Mohammed Aoun, who considered the entire deal illegal on the grounds that Dbeibah did not consult with his ministry before concluding the agreement. Some tribal sheikhs also rejected this new agreement, saying that the new deal amends and modifies an older agreement between the two countries, which the Italian company Eni had signed with the regime of Muammar Gaddafi.

Vitals Files for Rome

Italy is Libya's largest trading partner, with a total volume of trade transactions between the two countries reaching nearly 10.17 billion euros during the first ten months of 2022. Rome has also become Tripoli's second-largest supplier after Turkey. In this context, the main motives for Meloni's visit to Libya can be analysed as follows:

1. Securing energy supply: 

The energy file is the most crucial matter for Italy and the European Union in general. Rome has been seeking to secure its energy supply away from Russia, which has long been the European continent's primary source of oil and gas.

2. Controlling migration: 

The migration issue is one of Meloni's most pressing priorities, as it was one of the main focuses of her campaign manifesto. This explains why the Italian Interior Minister Matteo Pentitusi accompanied Meloni on her tour of North Africa. During her visit to Tripoli, Meloni announced that her country would provide five fully equipped boats to support the efforts of the Libyan Coast Guard as part of Rome's initiative to prevent the continued flow of migrants to the European continent, whereby Libya has become a major crossing point.

The number of migrants who arrived in Italy in 2022 reached more than 100,000. Experts haven't ruled out the possibility that Meloni's visit to Libya included a consultation on the revitalisation of Operation Sophia, which was launched by the EU in 2015 to stop the flow of illegal immigrants to European countries before the operation was stopped in 2019.

3. Aligning on Libya: 

Meloni was the first European leader to visit Libya since the Libyan elections stalled in December 2021. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani also visited Egypt, Turkey, and Tunisia last month, reflecting Rome's inclination to coordinate with regional powers active in the Libyan crisis. In this context, Tajani signalled the centrality of regional powers' alignment on Libya. 

Italian-American Coordination

The Italian PM's visit to Libya reflected several possible repercussions that may occur on the Libyan file in the coming period, and they may be outlined as follows:

1. Strengthening the influence of Al-Dbeibah: 

The recent gas agreement concluded by Rome with Al-Dbeibah cements his influence and supports his continuity in power by adopting a 'gas for survival' policy, especially in light of the current talks to form a new government to manage the Libyan transition to presidential elections. The House of Representatives and the House of State submitted a proposal to the UN mission to form a dialogue committee, similar to the previous political dialogue forum, to choose a new executive authority.

These moves are mirrored by a movement rejecting the proposal of changing the Dbeibah's government and are held by some international powers, especially the US and Italy, in addition to Turkey. Therefore, Al-Dbeibah relies on the agreement he recently signed with Rome to ensure that the latter supports the prospect of his government remaining in power in the face of other parallel movements aiming to overthrow him. 

2. Competition of foreign companies: 

Farhat bin Qadara, head of the Libyan National Oil Organisation, said that investment in Libya's energy infrastructure is currently being negotiated with several other foreign companies, which may reflect the possibility that the coming period will witness more international and regional competition over the energy file in Libya.

3. Western support of the Libyan elections: 

International actors have pushed for presidential and parliamentary elections before the end of 2023, which was reflected in the statements of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during his visit to Cairo in late January 2023, and his assertions that Libyan elections should be conducted this year.

In this context, some regional powers, especially Egypt, are supporting efforts to finalise the constitutional rule meant to govern the upcoming elections through consensus between the House of Representatives and the House of the State. Western powers are pushing to complete this file, and more experts are hinting at the possibility that the West will push towards the formation of a dialogue committee to finalise the arrangements for the next phase in Libya, including the completion of the constitutional rule if the differences between the two houses continue. The coming period may witness Italy call for a new international conference, such as the Berlin I and Berlin II conferences, to set forth a new road map for the Libyan file.

4. Italian-American alignment: 

Recent developments in Libya reflect a degree of coordination between the US and Italy, which was explained in the visit of the director of the American intelligence service, William Burns, to Libya, not to mention the reception of some leaders of military groups in western Libya by the US embassy in Tripoli. These meetings are aimed at undermining the influence of the Russian Wagner mercenaries in Libya, as well as securing oil and gas supplies.

The American move coincided with the arrival of a senior Italian military delegation to Tripoli, which included both the Chief of Staff of the Joint Forces and the Chief of Operations Support. The Italian delegation met with military officials in Western Libya, followed by the announcement of an upcoming visit by the Chief of Staff of the forces of the Dbeibah government, Mohammed Al-Haddad, to Benghazi, where he would meet The Chief of Staff of the Libyan National Army, Abdul Razzaq Al-Nadori, to discuss the issue of unifying the military institution.

Italy's movement can be linked to Washington's efforts to end the presence of Wagner in Libya by pushing for the unification of the Libyan military establishment and working to absorb some armed groups in Western Libya in an attempt to solve the dilemma of armed militias, which is one of the main obstacles to the completion of the elections. Washington seeks to push for the formation of an elected Libyan government as soon as possible, which then can request Wagner to leave the country.

In conclusion, there seem to be current Italian aspirations aimed at restoring its presence in Libya. Rome may employ the preoccupation of European powers, especially Germany and France, with their internal crises to strengthen its influence in Libya. Since coming to power in Rome three months ago, Meloni has been seeking to restore the Italian role in Libya. It is likely the coming period will see more movements by Italy in this regard.