Russia and Iran recently confirmed their comprehensive strategic partnership agreement will be signed on January 17, 2025, during Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's visit to Moscow. Although the draft was announced in early 2021, the finalization process took a considerable time. The chosen timing for this signing appears to convey deliberate messages, particularly as it coincides with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20. Additionally, the agreement's timing aligns with ongoing regional developments in which Iran plays a significant role.
Reasons for the Delay
The strategic cooperation between Russia and Iran has its roots in a 10-year agreement signed in 2001, which outlined the principles of collaboration between the two nations. This agreement was designed to automatically renew every five years unless either party chose to terminate it.
Recent international and regional developments have seen Moscow and Tehran's interests aligning more frequently than clashing. As a result, both countries sought to expand their cooperation through a new agreement. The proposed collaboration aims to enhance partnerships in various sectors, including defense, trade, energy, transportation, industry, agriculture, culture, education, technology, and space exploration.
Despite initial approval, the signing of this new agreement has faced delays due to several obstacles. These setbacks suggest that both Moscow and Tehran may still harbor reservations about the full benefits of the deal. The most significant obstacles include:
1- Iran’s doubts about the Russian ally
A segment of Iranian decision-makers remains skeptical about relying on Russia as a long-term strategic ally. Recent developments have highlighted the challenges of depending on Moscow's approach to managing its interests, particularly in the Syrian file, especially after the fall of Bashar Assad's regime. Despite Tehran's political leadership adopting an "eastward turn" strategy, which seeks to strengthen ties with Moscow to achieve comprehensive strategic cooperation, particularly in the economic sphere, this skepticism persists.
Iran has taken steps to align with Russia's interests, such as integrating into Russia's alternative to the SWIFT financial system as a measure to circumvent U.S. sanctions on both countries. Furthermore, Iran was granted observer status in the Eurasian Economic Union last December, and a free trade agreement between the union and Iran has come into effect.
2- The death of Ebrahim Raisi
In November, Iran's ambassador to Moscow, Kazem Jalali, announced that the signing of the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran had been postponed. The delay was attributed to the unexpected death of former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in May. Jalali explained, "The agreement was already prepared, but unfortunately, its signing was postponed due to Raisi's passing." Russian officials believe that part of the delay in finalizing the agreement stems from new Iranian President Pezeshkian's inclination toward opening up to the West, which may have presented an obstacle in recent months.
3- Iran’s limited gains from a similar agreement with China
China and Iran signed a 25-year comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement on March 27, 2021. Despite intentions to elevate relations across economic, political, security, military, cultural, social, and scientific fields, many believe Tehran has yet to experience the expected benefits from this deal. The agreement's tangible impact has been minimal, as evidenced by the fact that the joint economic committee between Beijing and Tehran has not yet convened.
In September, during the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank's annual meeting in Uzbekistan, Iranian Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Abdolnaser Hemmati met with Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun. Hemmati stated that the committee would begin its work soon, emphasizing that both Iran and China have prioritized the implementation of the joint cooperation document to achieve practical results.
Multiple Messages
Regional and international developments have likely accelerated Russia and Iran's decision to sign their strategic partnership agreement, particularly as Trump's second-term inauguration approaches. His first presidency was marked by significant tensions with Iran. Additionally, Iran, like Russia, has faced regional setbacks, including diminished influence in Syria following the Assad regime's collapse. The agreement's signing, mere days before Trump's inauguration, carries profound implications.
Given Trump's hardline stance toward Iran and his efforts to curtail Russian influence, the agreement stands as a direct challenge to the West and the United States. Both nations have attempted to disrupt the Russia-Iran alliance through intensified economic sanctions, especially in light of allegations that Tehran has supported Moscow's war efforts in Ukraine by providing combat drones used against critical Ukrainian infrastructure.
The timing of this comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran conveys several key messages, including:
1- The potential for anti-western alliances
The agreement between Russia and Iran sends a clear message of closer cooperation and coordinated efforts to counter Western pressure, as tensions rise between these nations and the U.S.-led West. Moscow and Tehran have been driven to strengthen their partnership as a means of resisting Western sanctions, despite their own competitive tensions, particularly in the oil sector. Their convergence of interests and shared opposition to unipolarity and American hegemony have fueled this alliance.
Paving the way for enhanced mitigation of sanctions' effects, the strategic agreement enables Russia and Iran to create new platforms for resource and expertise exchange, especially in energy, technology, and alternative financing methods. Iran's extensive experience in dealing with Western and American sanctions on its key economic sectors will prove invaluable in this collaborative effort.
2- Revitalizing alliances away from Western influence
Russia and Iran, having experienced a decline in their regional influence in Syria, are expected to shift their focus towards preserving their remaining sway in other areas. Central Asia emerges as a particularly promising region for Russian-Iranian cooperation, offering opportunities in economic and logistical sectors due to their favorable relations with most countries in the area. The strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran also paves the way for strengthening the "Russia-China-Iran" axis. This alliance encompasses major projects involving multiple nations, such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Belt and Road Initiative, which spans 65 countries.
2- Asserting Russian and Iranian influence in the region
The strategic partnership agreement, featuring provisions for security and military cooperation, implicitly signals Moscow and Tehran's resolve to maintain their influence in the Middle East. This influence extends to managing conflicts and supporting allies. Recent regional developments have prompted both nations to prioritize this goal. Moreover, the agreement conveys a message to regional countries: a new axis capable of reshaping regional balances is emerging.
Potential Impacts
The signing of the strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran is expected to have several regional and international repercussions, including:
Trump's inauguration on January 20 is likely to escalate tensions due to his hardline policies toward Russia and Iran. Tehran may face increased pressure regarding its nuclear program and ballistic missile activities. Moreover, additional Western sanctions on Moscow and Tehran are probable, aiming to disrupt their economic and military alliance, particularly as both sectors already face U.S. and Western sanctions. Concerns about potential military escalation also loom, with Russia expected to bolster Iran's military capabilities, while Washington seeks to prevent Tehran from achieving military superiority that could disrupt the regional balance of power.
2- Impact on the oil market
The strategic agreement between Russia and Iran, despite their competition in oil production and export, facilitates cooperation in developing Iran's production and refining capabilities through Russian investments. As major global oil producers, their collaboration has the potential to influence worldwide oil prices. A landmark oil cooperation deal between the two nations was signed during President Vladimir Putin's visit to Tehran in July 2022. The agreement, valued at $40 billion, involves the National Iranian Oil Company and Russia's gas giant Gazprom working together to modernize Iran's oil and gas sectors.
3- Strengthening the economic capabilities of Russia and Iran
Economic cooperation between Russia and Iran, the two nations most affected by Western and American sanctions, primarily aims to mitigate the impact of these punitive measures. Both countries can explore alternative economic pathways to circumvent U.S. sanctions on the global banking system, utilizing intermediaries or under-the-radar companies. Russia views Iran as a promising economic market for its products and investments. Conversely, Iran sees Russia as a source of funding for numerous development projects, particularly in transportation and railway development in northern Iran. One such project is the International North-South Transport Corridor, which includes a railway line connecting Iran to Russia via Azerbaijan. Additionally, Russian support could alleviate domestic pressure on the Iranian regime caused by economic crises.
In conclusion, the Russia-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership agreement rests on shared objectives, indicating a probable continuation of cooperation between the two nations, particularly as they both face ongoing U.S. and Western sanctions. Nevertheless, regional geopolitical developments will significantly influence the strength and longevity of this collaboration. These factors will also impact the dedication of both parties to implementing the agreement's provisions and elevating their relationship to the envisioned strategic partnership level.
