Donald Trump's return to the White House has prompted Arab nations to reassess their strategies and expectations for dealing with his administration. These expectations are shaped by previous interactions with Trump during his first term and new challenges facing the region, including the devastating war in Gaza and Lebanon after the events of October 7, 2023, and Iran's increasingly visible role in regional conflicts.
The Arab world, comprising a wide spectrum of governments, cultures, and political priorities, resists easy generalisations. Nevertheless, Trump's reelection raises several key questions to address when analysing the regional response to Trump's reelection. What can Arabs anticipate from a new Trump administration, based on his past policies, the current regional dynamics, and the opportunities to balance American interests with Arab aspirations?
During his first term, Trump adopted a "maximum pressure" strategy against Iran, withdrawing from the nuclear deal and imposing severe economic and diplomatic sanctions on Tehran. Analysts anticipate that Trump is likely to revive this approach, especially amid escalating regional tensions and Iran's increasingly overt role in conflicts.
Two potential paths emerge: Trummp could either impose harsher sanctions to disrupt Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional activities or opt for pragmatic engagement, pursuing mutual gains through tailored agreements. However, either approach risks intensifying proxy wars, as Iran might retaliate through its regional militias. Gulf states, already wary of military escalation, are likely to closely monitor how Trump balances these strategies to ensure regional stability.
The Palestinian issue remains a critical concern for Arab nations. Trump's previous actions, such as moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, have intensified the complexities surrounding the Palestinian situation. With the intensification of violence post-October 7, the Palestinian question has grown more urgent and complex.
Arab states, particularly Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf nations are expected to press for de-escalation, humanitarian relief, and a two-state solution despite Trump's prior record of marginalizing these concerns. Whether he will pivot to accommodate Arab expectations or maintain his staunch support for Israel remains uncertain.
The ongoing war in Gaza and Lebanon presents a critical test for Trump's capacity for diplomatic intervention, with several potential scenarios shaping his approach. Leveraging his strong ties with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump might press for de-escalation, aiming to reduce tensions. Alternatively, his hardline stance on groups like Hamas, which he views as a terrorist organisation, could drive efforts to isolate and weaken such groups, potentially pressuring Arab states to curtail their support. Close cooperation with key Arab nations like Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf states could also play a pivotal role in securing ceasefires and addressing urgent humanitarian challenges. However, entrenched positions on both sides and domestic US pressures to maintain unconditional support for Israel remain significant obstacles.
Regional security and America's military footprint in the Middle East are likely to remain contentious topics under Trump. His first term saw repeated questioning of the need for extensive US military involvement in the region, including the 2019 withdrawal from northern Syria, which left a vacuum exploited by other powers like Russia and Iran.
This time, Trump may further reduce the US military presence, relying instead on targeted operations such as drone strikes. He could also encourage Arab nations to bolster their defensive capabilities and establish regional security alliances.
However, diminished US presence might pave the way for expanded Russian and Chinese influence, posing a strategic dilemma for Arab states striving to balance American partnerships with regional threats.
Trump's "America First" mantra underscores his prioritisation of economic interests in foreign policy. He is expected to strengthen economic partnerships with Arab states, particularly in energy, technology, and infrastructure.
While Trump's policies may retain elements of his first-term agenda—such as staunch support for Israel and a hardline stance on Iran—the global and regional context has shifted significantly. Key factors include the heightened tensions between Israel and Iran post-October 7 and changing international power dynamics, with Russia and China emerging as key players in the Middle East.
These factors may compel Trump to adjust his strategies to better align with evolving regional realities.
Donald Trump's return to power presents a mix of hope and apprehension for the Arab world. While some view him as a pragmatic dealmaker, others fear a return to divisive policies that could deepen regional fractures.
Despite his "America First" approach, Trump's success in the Middle East will depend on his ability to balance American priorities with Arab aspirations. In a region fraught with challenges but ripe with opportunities, achieving such a balance will be a formidable task.
