The so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is making steady progress on the ground in Raqqa, ISIS’ main stronghold in Syria. The alliance of militias recently announced that they retook 70% of the city from the terrorist group following a successful plan to divide the city into an eastern and western zone and storm the city from both sides. The SDF militants advancing from the eastern and western parts of the city linked up for the first time on August 11 preventing ISIS from reaching the Euphrates River and keeping its fighters with civilians who remain besieged by both groups. 

The development pushed ISIS to make tactical moves ordering its fighters to advance to southeast  towards Deir Ezzor City where it controls about 60% of the city, and planted mines and deployed snipers to block the SDF from advancing into areas under its control.

What should be noted in this context is that despite indications that the battle for Deir Ezzor is approaching, no decision was made on whether the SDF would continue to fight ISIS outside Raqqa or stop at the borders of the city. This is primarily because of its insistence on establishing a self-rule region despite opposition from regional powers, such as Turkey, that are involved in the conflict in Syria.

Moreover, the Global Coalition has not yet determined the arrangements for the battle for Deir Ezzor, seen as being more geopolitically important than Raqqa. A victory on ISIS in Raqqa would be considered primarily as a political gain, while success in overcoming the complexity of the situation in Deir Ezzor would settle more than one battle in Syria, specifically offensives against ISIS and confrontations between local parties, before launching a stage that is likely to be different and critical in reaching a comprehensive settlement to the crisis in Syria. 

Evident Contrast

The SDF officially announced last week the second stage of the battle for Raqqa. The 3-stage plan launched in November 2016  was designed to eliminate the presence of ISIS from the city. The SDF refrained from revealing their intentions regarding resuming operations outside Raqqa. Co-leader of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) Salih Muslim told the Russian newspaper Izvestia that the Kurds have no post-Raqqa plans nor preparations for advancing to Deir Ezzor. According to this view, Raqqa will be the last front for the SDF’s offensives. 

However, according to several reports by Kurdish news websites, the SDF is likely to advance towards Dier Ezzor, due in particular to new indications that these forces had received additional military support from the Global Coalition. Moreover, there are other indications of logistical preparations for offensives for Deir Ezzor, including the Coalition’s preparation for launching the offensives towards the city from al-Shaddadi military base in particular.

Due to the SDF’s opposition being replaced with the Revolutionary Commando Army in al-Shaddadi where the deployed alternative troops would be in charge of offensives in Deir Ezzor, it is likely that the SDF will continue to carry out its operations. This view is supported by the fact that the Revolutionary Commando Army and the Coalition’s command have not officially announced the success of their negotiations on the establishment of a new “National Army” militia for Deir Ezzor. Nonetheless, there are leaks that talks with the SDF about taking charge of this mission are making headway and that the Deir Ezzor Military Council will participate in the mission as a military force.

Complexity of the Battle

International powers involved in the war against ISIS have taken varying positions on the looming battle for Deir Ezzor. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the regime’s forces are ready to break the siege and indicated that a Russian air support would be crucial for settling the battle but will be limited to breaking ISIS’ siege. Reports from the Global Coalition command indicated that it was prepared for sending advisors to al-Shaddadi base as part of preparations for the battle. Military vehicles had been sent from Iraq, a move that coincided with warnings that because it would be the group’s last stronghold, the battle for Deir Ezzor will be more difficult than the battle for Raqqa.

In light of this, it will be necessary to end the dispute about who will be in charge of the mission. That is, it will either the US who will look for a suitable local partner to take up the responsibility, or Russia, which is likely to work on establishing a safe zone to push involved parties towards fighting only ISIS.

Domestically, the complexity of relations between powers expected to fight the battle is likely to impact its trajectories. That is, ISIS controls 60% of Deir Ezzor while the regime controls the remaining 40%. This means that whoever will fight ISIS in the city will have to confront a third party, which is the regime’s forces.

The battle for Raqqa is considered as the main confrontation with ISIS in Syria that aims to eliminate its presence as an organization, especially because of the high importance of the city for it. However, the battle for Deir Ezzor is considered as the crucial battle that will impact the trajectories of the whole conflict in Syria, ahead of a comprehensive settlement. That is because the deployment of involved forces will take shape based on their geostrategic weight. This was expressed by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu who said that Deir Ezzor is of exceptional strategic importance as one of the major positions on the Euphrates River.

That said, it can possibly be concluded that the SDF are facing the predicament of “narrow choices” while preparing for the battle for Deir Ezzor. That is because the militia is planning on establishing an autonomous region as part of a confederation similar to that in northern Iraq, which will force it to halt its military advance at the borders of Raqqa City. Moreover, the continued support provided by the Global Coalition to the SDF will also impose strong pressure on the militia to continue its fight against ISIS to the end, and eliminate ISIS’ presence in Deir Ezzor City.