The New Mashriq Plan, which was announced in the Baghdad tripartite summit (which brought together president Abdel-Fattah El-sisi of Egypt, King Abdullah II of Jordan, and the Iraqi prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi), stimulated a lot of analyses, which reflected two opposing views. Some analysts seemed to be overly optimistic about the outcomes of this Iraqi-Egyptian-Jordanian project. On the other hand, others adopted a more skeptical, even pessimistic, attitude, believing that it will fail to achieve its purpose, on account of the many challenges it has to face. Despite all the analyses available about the project, questions are still being raised, such as: How did the project develop? What is its economic agenda? What about its political dimensions? And, last but not least, what will its future be like?
How did it all start?
The idea of establishing cooperation between Iraq, Egypt and Jordan dates back to 2019; to be more accurate, it came into existence in the summit, which brought together former Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdel-Mehdi, El-Sisi and Abdulla II in Cairo on March 25, 2019. In September 2019, the Egyptian president, the Jordanian king and Iraqi president Barham Salih convened while they were in New York for the 74th annual meeting of the UN General Assembly. In August 25, 2020, a second summit was held, bearing witness to the fact that the three countries were keen on furthering and enhancing the budding cooperation.
In this second meeting, leaders of the three countries sought to institutionalize this cooperation through the establishment of a permanent secretariat to coordinate the implementation of the steps agreed upon, so as to make sure that the new project will have a better future than previous projects proposed by the three countries. It was agreed that each of the three countries would host the secretariat for a year, and that the first host would be Jordan.
However, it was not until August 2020 that the term 'New Mashriq' was used, when, in an interview with the Washington Post, Prime Minister Kadhimi talked about a strategic project that Iraq intends to take part in, called 'The New Mashriq'. Kadhimi also stated that it is an economic project modeled on European economic cooperation models, and that the partners are Baghdad, Cairo, and Amman. The aim is to form a powerful economic bloc, capable of facing challenges in the region. He explained that the project was still in the making, and that Iraq's new orientation towards Egypt and Jordan is a step that will be taken with a view to creating an effective partnership in the region, based on economic and political cooperation.
The project was finally announced in the Baghdad summit, in June, and Kadhimi commented that the project is intended to achieve cooperation and integration between Iraq, Egypt and Jordan at the economic level, because economy helps reconcile the viewpoints of the three countries by representing and reflecting the interests of their citizens. He added that the proposed project will form the basis of an economic integration project, thanks to the existence of factors, which can guarantee the success of such a project, the most important of which is manpower (in addition to geography, natural wealth, etc.). Kadhimi also said that Iraq, Egypt and Jordan can be the beginning, and other countries can join the project in the future. He explained, that what is important for the time being is that the nucleus of the project should be strong enough, so as to guarantee success and readiness for the future. As for potential partners, it is the future that will dictate who else can join the project, depending on the economic circumstances and conditions of other countries of the region. He added: "Our doors are open to everyone, and our prime concern is the interests and stability of neighboring countries".
Therefore, the New Mashriq Project was top on the agenda of the Baghdad tripartite summit, where the three Arab leaders discussed ways of implementing the project through agreements and treaties in the political, economic, cultural, and educational fields, not to mention the areas of security, investment and energy. The three leaders also stressed the importance of enhancing cooperation, and benefiting from their geographical relations to one another in seeking to achieve economic integration between them. Besides, they emphasized that it is important that the communication channels between the three countries remain open and that periodical meetings continue to be held with the aim of coordinating collaborative actions meant to serve the three countries' interests and face various challenges such as combatting terrorism and extremism, and containing the Coronavirus crisis, etc.
Economic Opportunities
It is obvious that the New Mashriq project is primarily concerned with economy. Dr. Ahmed Al-Sahaf, the spokesperson of the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said: "The project aims at creating economic partnerships targeting various sectors, in response to the needs of the Iraqi people." Al-Sahaf added: "The tripartite coordination is purely economic in nature; it is not directed at any other country. It is simply meant to serve one of the purposes of Iraqi foreign policy-namely, creating various economic partnerships.”
The project is based on bringing together Iraq's natural wealth and oil resources, Egypt's manpower, wide experience, and location on the Mediterranean and Read seas, and Jordan's geographical location (which provides a link between Iraq and Egypt) and logistical and transport capabilities. It focuses on the elements of integration between the three countries, i.e. energy resources, transport, logistics, trade exchange, and investment. It also aims to benefit from the experiences of the three countries, especially in the areas of economy, technology, and capital flows.
According to the closing statement of the Baghdad summit, the three countries agreed on cooperating in various areas, including electrical interconnection projects and electricity exchange. Gas pipelines between Iraq and Egypt are going to pass through Jordan, and a pipeline for transporting crude oil is going to be constructed between Basra and Aqaba. In addition, the three countries are going to join efforts in the areas of renewable energy, and capacity building, as well as in the industrial and agricultural fields. The three countries are also going to proceed with establishing a regional company for exchanging agricultural products. Besides, there is going to be cooperation between the three countries in the area of public transport. The three countries are going to work together to facilitate their regulations of entry for one another's citizens. They are also going to further cooperation between their naval academies, enhance private sector companies' efforts to carry out projects. Lastly, Jordan, through this deal was able to get oil from Iraq for differential prices.
Political Dimension
Though the stated objective of the project is economic cooperation and coordination between the three countries, it is not difficult to see that it is more than likely to be grist for the three countries' political mill, so to speak. For example, Iraq's decision to cooperate with such Arab countries as Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf countries marks an important shift after a relatively long period of ignoring Arab relations in favor of relations with Iran. For a long time, Iran has been the main provincial player in Iraq as far as economy, politics and security are concerned. Therefore, the New Mashriq Project can be a step towards 'restoring the balance' in Iraq's Arab and regional relations.
Moreover, the Iraqi-Egyptian-Jordanian coordination will not be restricted to the economic field. The three countries have agreed upon consulting and coordinating efforts in dealing with developments pertaining to politics, economy, security, and counter-terrorism. They have also agreed to join hands with one another and with other Arab countries in handling regional issues, especially the crises in Syria and Yemen.
Besides, the project will help Iraq vary its relations so that it can include relations with more Arab countries. It will also give the relationship between Egypt and Jordan, on the one hand, and Iraq on the other hand, more openness, and provide the two countries with an opportunity to benefit from Iraq's resources.
In addition, Iraq being present in Arab treaties and agreements will help limit Iran's power in the Iraqi arena, and bring Iraq back to its Arab context, allowing it to play a bigger role in the Arab world in the future. The project is, thus, an attempt on the part of the three countries to unify their views and stances towards regional conflicts and challenges, in a way that would protect the countries' sovereignty and unity. It is also an attempt to prevent other countries, both in the region and outside it, from interfering in Arab countries' affairs. If this project succeeds, it will probably reshape the geopolitical map of the Middle East, as it aims to connect the Asian parts of Mashriq with North Africa, and shed lights on new cooperation opportunities and new common interests. It will also establish a new policy in the region, based on the principle of 'investing in stability', through employing the capabilities of the three countries in serving the purpose of enhancing peace and cooperation in the region.
A Conditional Success
In order for the New Mashriq project to bear fruit, certain conditions must be met. For example, political stability and internal security need to be guaranteed in the three countries. The political elite in Iraqi decision-making positions must continue to work to restore Iraq to its Arab context, and to enhance Iraqi-Arab relations so that the Arab world can accept today's Iraq as part of it instead of abandoning the scene and allowing Iran to have the upper hand there. It must be noted that now is the time for Iraqi politicians to take serious steps in this direction, as Iraqis (i.e. ordinary citizens, political figures, activists, etc.) are increasingly denouncing the Iranian presence and role in their country, let alone Arab and US attempts to reinforce and further Iraq's relations with the Arab countries in general and the Gulf countries in particular. All these can be factors increasing the New Mashriq project chances of success.
However, there are certain obstacles that can negatively impact the project, such as the security issues and political crises in Iraq. Besides, many influential political and military figures have a strong relationship with Iran, and will work hard to hinder any project to sever ties with Tehran. Iran itself is by no means willing to give up all the political, economic and strategic gains it has made in Iraq. Last but not least, we must take into consideration that as the elections are drawing near in Iraq, the pro-New Mashriq politicians may have to leave their positions for other politicians who do not share the same opinions about the project and about Iraq's Arab and regional relations in general.
