European states seek to increase the chances of maintaining the implementation of the nuclear agreement, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), concluded on July 14, 2017 between Iran and the P5+1 group of world powers, which includes the European Union, France as well as Germany. The bid is especially driven by the European view that a collapse of the deal would inflict grave consequences on their interests.
However, the European bid is facing no easy hurdles. While the United States is keen to impose new sanctions on Iran over its ballistic missile program, Iran is similarly adamant about continuing this program as well as exploiting the nuclear deal to expand its influence in the region through backing terrorist organizations and establishing relations with non-state actors.
Key Determinants
The aforementioned hurdles are pushing the European states towards pursuing a policy relying on three key determinants.
The first is to support Iran’s compliance to the technical aspects of the nuclear deal including reducing its stockpile of uranium enriched to 3.5 percent, reducing by about two-thirds the number of its gas centrifuges and sell its excess nuclear-grade heavy water to be sold to a foreign buyer.
The second is to try to dissuade the US Administration of President Donald Trump from its policy regarding the nuclear deal. Accordingly, no obstacles would be created to hamper the continued implementation of the JCPOA. That is because this would deprive Iran’s hardliners of a chance to put pressure on the government to take escalatory measures. Eventually such escalation would impact the continued implementation of the nuclear deal and increase the possibility that the whole deal will be taken back to square one before even reaching the final stage of the JCPOA.
The third determinant implies that the EU demands Iran refrain from taking further provocative measures, such as carrying out more test-launches of ballistic missiles, which will provoke the US to impose more sanctions. It will further restrict EU’s options and free movement aimed at influencing the US position on the nuclear deal.
These three determinants have pushed the European states to send messages to both the US and Iran amid the escalating issue. In a significant move, Federica Mogherini, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, attended the inauguration ceremony of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on August 5, 2017 where she reiterated the EU’s unwavering commitment to the nuclear deal.
While in Tehran, Mogherini, acting also in her capacity as coordinator of the JCPOA, held bilateral meetings with Rouhani as well as other senior Iranian officials including Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, the supreme leader's foreign policy adviser Ali Akbar Velayati, and attended a roundtable with the head of Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations , foreign policy adviser and former foreign minister Kamal Kharrazi. In an official statement, the European foreign policy chief underscored the importance of the deal for regional and global stability.
Mogherini participation in Rouhani’s inauguration was aimed at sending a direct message to Tehran that the nuclear deal helped create political convergence with the EU. This convergence perhaps goes beyond the technical aspects of the nuclear deal to include regional issues of particular interest for both sides.
Significantly, the EU foreign policy chief became at the center of attention on the Iranian parliament floor after Rouhani's’ swearing-in ceremony. Images circulated online showed the EU politician surrounded by a number of male MPs jostling to take a selfie with her. The Iranian MPs’ behavior angered social media users and even prompted some MPs to call for a probe into what they labelled as humiliating actions and self-surrender to the West.
The Europeans’ keen interest in engaging in talks with Iran about regional issues became evident in a June 29, 2017 meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and Iranian head of diplomacy Javad Zarif, where Syria and the Qatar crisis were the main topics of talks.
European states nonetheless began to signal convergence with the US positions on issues related to the nuclear deal, including on Iran’s ballistic missile tests. In a joint statement, the United States and three other signatories of the nuclear JCPOA -France, Germany and Britain- condemned Iran’s July 27, 2017 launch of a Simorgh space launch vehicle, which can be possibly used to send satellites into space. The four states said the launch was inconsistent with U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231 because such launch vehicles use technologies that are closely related to those of ballistic missiles development, in particular to those of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles.
Loopholes in the JCPOA
The condemnation might suggest that European states involved with the nuclear deal have taken contradictory positions showing an interest in continued commitment to the deal and, at the same time, rejecting some of Iran’s actions related to it. However, this can be explained by these states’ recognition that the legal form of Resolution 2231, which gave international legitimacy to the deal allowing Iran to carry out the launch, and left it a room for maneuver to circumvent provisions related to ballistic missiles.
Iran’s circumvention is based on that UNSC Resolution 2231, which bars it from undertaking any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, and that its own ballistic missiles are not designed to carry out any such activity, which means it has not violated the ban. In other words, European states are currently preoccupied with ensuring that Iran continues to comply with the key technical aspects of the nuclear deal, while urging it not to give any chance to any parties that have reservations on the deal to block its implementation in the coming period.
Multiple Obstacles
However, this European endeavor would possibly encounter several obstacles in the coming period. That is, there are indications that the US Administration is bent on escalating against Iran, even after Washington recognized Tehran’s compliance with the technical aspects of the nuclear deal. New sanctions are likely to be imposed against Iran over its ballistic missile program as well as its support for terrorist organizations operating in this region.
Moreover, Iran’s hardline conservatives are adamant on not giving Rouhani any chance to ease tensions with Washington. The absence of key commanders from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), such as General Mohammad Ali Jafari and General Qassem Soleimani, from the inauguration of Rouhani has sent a message to Rouhani that the IRGC will continue to pursue the same approach despite his opposition.
Rouhani himself began to send signals that the continued US escalation will eventually lead to convergence of views between him and his political rivals as he attempts to put pressure on both Europeans and Americans. This was evident in the statements he delivered at his oath-taking ceremony in the presence of Federica Mogherini where he said that Iran will respond in kind to any breach by the United States of the 2015 nuclear deal.
Hence, it can possibly be concluded that the European states are facing limited options as they are seeking to enhance the chances of continued implementation of nuclear deal, amid the ongoing escalation of tensions between Washington and Tehran, which is unlikely to ease off any time soon.
