ISIS has launched a bid to recruit new terrorist elements to join its ranks. ISIS-Khorasan Province, which, according to several views, is the organization’s most important branches, released a new propaganda film on March 4, 2018, inviting those elements to move to territories under its control in Afghanistan. The invitation represents a new trend for offshoot groups, after it was an exclusive feature of major organizations. This indicates a change in the balances of power inside the organization or in the mechanisms it uses to deal with the mounting pressures on it in various regions. It is also a sign of potential new developments in Afghanistan. Most importantly, there might be negotiations between the government and the Taliban Movement in the coming period, as such effort receives international attention and support.
Significant Activity
ISIS-Khorasan Province’s latest invitation is driven by a recent surge in its influence, where it attempted to absorb strong blows from adversary forces inside Afghanistan and re-emerged as one of the strongest offshoots of ISIS. This attempt coincided with the receding roles of other recently emerged groups.
According to various views, what increases the influence of this offshoot that it controls territories in Afghanistan, some of which were wrenched from the Taliban. This development prompted a commander of the group to suggest the likelihood of a new stage, in which the Taliban’s influence recedes in favor of this organization.
Additionally, ISIS-Khorasan Province is in possession of no small human, organizational and weapons capacities. Such capabilities, in the coming period, may enable it to continue launching non-conventional attacks, such as the ones that targeted the Supreme Court in February 2017, the Military Hospital in Kabul on March 8, 2017, and the Iraqi Embassy in July of the same year.
Moreover, the organization showed a special interest in the media. This is the same policy pursued by ISIS when it started to seize control of areas in northern Iraq in mid-2014. ISIS then sought to establish local radio stations to enhance its ability to spread its ideology and recruit more elements in nearby areas.
Multiple Goals
Through releasing the new film, the organization seeks to achieve several goals that are correlated with the potential trajectories of its escalating conflict with adversary parties. The most prominent of all are as follows:
1- Sending Direct Messages: Through the propaganda film, the organization seeks to put up a show of force by showing its organizational capabilities, weaponry and ability to maintain control of areas seized previously from the Taliban. Undoubtedly, the highlighting of this development was a deliberate act by the organization that aims to consolidate its ability to recruit more terrorists. This bid is based on its attempts to absorb blows, especially those from the United States, including the use of the Mother of All Bombs to hit its strongholds in April 2017.
2- Hindering Political Efforts: Apparently, the organization is attempting to put up obstacles that can weaken the possibility of holding a new round of talks between Afghan parties including the Taliban. The ISIS-affiliated group fears that the negotiations may bolster the government’s efforts to make the war on terrorism more focused on the organization’s positions.
What should be noted here is that a number of the organization’s commanders now believe that a crushing defeat of the Taliban may not be in favor of the organization, although rivalry is now a main feature of their relations. In other words, such a defeat would force the Taliban to yield to pressures to engage in the potential negotiations, thus reducing the organization’s ability to expand to new areas.
3- Backing the Mother Organization: ISIS is facing unprecedented pressures in both Iraq and Syria as a result of a significant decline in its capabilities and suffering huge loss human and material losses after military strikes by states and local militias. In other words, one of the goals of the mother organization’s latest film is to send the message that a decline in its influence in Syria and Iraq does not mean an end to its role or existence. The organization is rather expanding its scope of influence thrugh its affiliate organizations, primarily ISIS-Khorasan Province.
4- Strengthening Role: ISIS-Khorasan Province’s invitation may contribute towards transforming Afghanistan into an attractive hotbed for terrorists in the coming period. This is especially so because ISIS, in its beginning, used this mechanism to enable it to recruit a large number of terrorists to its ranks in Syria and Iraq.
According to several views, Afghanistan receives special attention from terrorist organizations for several reasons. Most importantly is the country’s fragile borders with its neighboring countries that help these organizations to expand their influence, into Iran and Pakistan in particular. Reports revealed that Iran turned a blind eye to a large number of ISIS elements moving to Afghanistan over the past period. This prompted leader of Hezb-e Islami party Gulbuddin Hekmatyar to criticize Iran on January 4, 2018, and accuse it of “directing ISIS to Afghanistan by allowing ISIS elements to use its territory.”
Other reports warned that foreign terrorists of various nationalities have already moved to ISIS-held areas in Afghanistan, where it built a camp for them in the south-west of Jowzjan Province. This can contribute towards changing the balances of power within other ISIS offshoots in favor of ISIS-Khorasan Province.
Overall, these developments can cause a rise in the phenomenon of foreign terrorists moving to Afghanistan in the coming period to join the ranks of ISIS-Khorasan Province. This, further, will impose new challenges for the Afghan government, which seeks, in cooperation with international power involved in the crisis, to prevent ISIS from expanding its activity on Afghan territory.
