Despite the importance of predictive news in preparing societies and public opinion in accepting political change, its arrival to the region is very late compared to other regions. In the west for example, predictive news outlets are politically motivated and as a consequence have become an effective tool in shaping public opinion. Overall, western news outlets that have been at the crux of the predictive news phenomenon.
The predictive news pattern is considered to be one of the most complex due to its multiple roles and varying goals. It can sometimes be inflammatory or used as a scare tactic. It can create motivation and even serve as a warning. These tactics usually serve the purpose of building a case, shedding light on any perceived evidence and then exporting judgment with a great focus on the receiving party. With so many possible end goals, there are a number of models for this type of media.
Western Dominance:
The utilization of predictive news has been dominated by western media for many years. The Middle East has been inundated and influenced by this type of news since nothing like it is present in Arab media. The role of predictive news has become more prominent during the last 20 years. The launch of the US war on terror was a major turning point in predictive news, as this paved the way for the war in Afghanistan and Iraq. The American presence in Iraq was justified in the eyes of the American public and within the Middle East as well, as Iraq was considered to be culpable for the events of 9/11. The American media was able to use this event to justify Washington’s goals and policies for many years to come.
Regional Models:
After the rise of predictive news in the Middle East, several models began to emerge and quickly diversify, creating four primary categories of predictive media:
1. Promotional Media: Iranian media is the strongest example of media in the region. From the start of the Syrian crisis, Iran has aimed to vilify the image of the popular uprisings, question the intentions of the opposition, offer support for the Syrian state and the Syrian regime.
Included in this media strategy was the idea that Syria was a main ally in the region, and that its fall would mean the fall of Iran’s alliances in the region, thereby cementing the importance of the Syrian alliance. Iran depended on popular slogans to sway the Iranian public, and have called on guarantees to ensure that the fallout from this support to Syria is contained due to the nature of the alliance with Syria.
Even with the ongoing losses of personnel in Syria, the Iranian media has been quick to affirm that the military leadership in Syria is doing its national duty. These reports were mainly centered around the statements by the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Dec. 6th, 2016, during which he noted that Iran was defending itself by defending the Syrian regime.
In the same light, during the initial stages of negotiations with the G5+1 countries regarding the nuclear agreement, Iranian media close to the Rouhani government put forth the opinion, that the economic and political benefits would be huge as a result. This was done in order to face any potential counter campaign that the conservative media in Iran were trying to undertake. The conservatives believe that the deal includes a number of loopholes considered to be dangerous, and erases any efforts that Iran has undertaken in previous years to develop its nuclear program.
This media promotion is prevalent despite the economic crises that Iran currently faces due to the sanctions placed against it as a result of its nuclear program. These sanctions have yet to be removed, despite the conclusion of the deal in July 2015. There has also been no clear improvement in the lives of Iranian citizens, specifically due to the fact that US sanctions have largely affected dealings between Iranian and western banks.
2. Precursory Media: this type of media seeks to prepare public opinion for any new internal procedures to be undertaken by the government. This model has been very apparent in Turkish media close to the government. After the failed coup attempt, media began an intensive campaign on the Gülen movement and its founder Fethallah Gülen, seeing him as the main protagonist in the failed coup. The media even called on excluding its members from the military and security institutions in the state. They also tried to gain the support of public opinion by broadcasting a number of talk shows over the issue and to invest in the new found support for President Erdogan during his successful attempt to crush the coup.
The expansion of requests made by the Turkish media to extricate those belonging to the Gülen movement, and their containment of options on other issues has raised the level of discontent among the Turkish people towards the media. Most important were the terrorist operations in Turkey, where the media primarily accused the PKK and IS as being the main perpetrators, as well as reporting on the efforts that Turkey is exerting to reach a settlement in the Syrian crisis.
3. Cautionary Media: despite criticism being leveled against some of the media in the region due to its lack of presence when it comes to combating terrorism, the Moroccan media has been able to utilize cautionary media over the past few years for the purposes of this goal. This was done by adopting a strategy that called for a change in the content of media in order to face terrorism. In order to push this forward, King Mohamed VI decreed that a review of all religious studies would be undertaken on all levels of education in order to promote the message of moderation and peacefulness.
The Moroccan media message to renew the cause against terrorism came as part of a plan that was adopted by the kingdom in 2008 to have religious reform. Experts believe that the way that Moroccan media has handled the issue and how they portrayed the message in the Moroccan community has helped to dismantle a large number of terrorist cells there.
4. Provocative Media: this is the most negative model that falls under predictive news in the region and it is represented by how the media handles ongoing crises that arise between states. This was very apparent in a recent spat between Morocco and Algeria. \Some media outlets in Morocco and Algeria sought to adopt a provocative tone and helped to spread rumors regarding the tensions between both states in order to increase divisiveness.
In Sep. 2016, during a global UNESCO event, both countries attempted to classify Raay music as their own cultural heritage. The organizing committee for the Raay Festival in Morocco had wanted to add the music as their cultural piece, pushing Algeria to do the same. This disagreement, over which country was entitled to “own” the genre, was grossly exaggerated by media on both sides.
To conclude, it can be said that employing the use of predictive news in the region seems to be on the rise in the future, especially in light of the ongoing differences between both regional and international powers that are involved in various crises which are not likely to end in the near future.
