Barzani’s resignation from the presidency of Kurdistan on October 29, 2017, sparked a debate about the implications and consequences of the decision on the future of the region. His resignation’s speech carries multiple messages about Kurdistan, the Iraqi State and the supportive regional and international alliances for the Kurds. This happens in the aftermath of the referendum on secession from Iraq, on September 25, and Iraqi forces’ control of oil-rich Kirkuk and border crossings, which link northern Iraq with neighboring countries.
Reasons for Stepping Down
Massoud Barzani belongs to Barzani family, which has religious and political stature in the Kurdish community. He assumed the leadership of the Kurdistan Democratic Party in 1979 and became a president of Iraqi Kurdistan in 2005 through an indirect election, reelected for a second term in 2009 through direct elections for the first time in Kurdistan for four years. After that, his presidency was extended to 2015 based on agreement between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, in a move seen by the Kurdish opposition forces as illegal and coup against the constitution.
After 2015, given that the Kurdish political forces did not agree on a law of the presidency of region, Barzani continued to be the president of Iraqi Kurdistan, under a judicial decision that allowed him to stay for another two years, to expire on November 1, 2017.
On October 29, 2017, Barzani announced that he was unwilling to extend his term after November 1, saying that “It is not possible to amend the law or extend the term of presidency.”
Here are the main reasons behind his decision:
1- Repercussions of referendum on secession: Barzani’s resignation is closely linked with the impacts and consequences of the referendum on the political, economic and security situations in Kurdistan. Barzani’s decision to step down came a week after the decision of Kurdistan parliament to postpone the legislative elections, scheduled for early November, and halted the presidency authority, which consists of President Massoud Barzani and his deputy Kosrat Rasul.
This decision was based on non-extension of the presidential term again, which means that the power of the presidency was over. Thus, Barzani sent a letter to the parliament, saying that he will not continue as a president after November 1. The parliament held a session on October 29 to distribute the powers of the presidency on the legislative, executive, and judicial powers.
2- Kurdish opposition forces: The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Change Movement (Gorran), Kurdistan Islamic Union and the New Generation List, agree on the need to elect a new president of Iraqi Kurdistan, revive the democratic process that was inactivated in the region, particularly after preventing Parliament Speaker Mohamed Yusuf from entering Erbil and excluding four Gorran ministers from the government.
These Kurdish political forces believe that Barzani’s legal term in presidency has expired since 2015 and thus to continue as a president is illegal, prompting many Kurdish political figures to call on him to step down. For example, Hoshyar Abdullah, a parliament member of the Change Movement in October 2017, said that “to extend Barzani’s mandate is a blow to democracy in Kurdistan”.
Also, Arras Sheikh Jenki, one of the leaders in the security and information authority in Sulaymaniyah, called on Barzani to bear the responsibility for the consequences of what happened and seize the remaining little opportunity to save what can be saved, accusing him of being responsible for the serious implications of the referendum. For its part, the Change Movement called Barzani and his deputy to resign, urged the political parties to form a government of national salvation, prepare for dialogue with Baghdad and organize elections. The position of the New Generation List was no different.
3- Tensions with the federal government: The controversy heightened between the federal government and the Kurdistan regional presidency, especially after many Kurdish forces chose to side with the federal government in the aftermath of the referendum. The federal government took many political, economic and military actions to regain control of the contested areas and to subject Kurdistan government to the provisions of the law and constitution.
Several Iraqi political forces and members of the Iraqi parliament believe that Barzani is partially responsible for the tension between the federal government and Kurdistan government, especially with his increasing statements about “the Kurdish State which borders will be drawn with blood.” They also believe that it is difficult to hold negotiations between the federal government and Kurdistan under the presence of Barzani.
4- Mounting external pressures: After Barzani’s insistence on conducting the referendum despite the regional and international reservation and rejection, it seemed that the US and France were in favor of removing Barzani from his post. In this context, Awat Mohamed, a leader of the PUK said in October 2017 that there was information on a French -American deal to force Barzani to step down in return for not prosecuting him from Baghdad, on the backdrop of the Iraqi soldiers killed by Peshmerga during the recent clashes.
Messages of the Resignation’s Speech
Barzani’s speech, in which he declared that his decision not to continue in the presidency, carries several messages to various forces both at home and abroad. The most notable of these messages are as follows:
1- Continuing political rivalry: Barzani made clear that he will not to continue as a president of Kurdistan, refused to extend his presidential term, demanded the political parties to address the question of who will succeed him, and explained his future plans by saying: “I'm as Massoud Barzani will stay among beloved Peshmerga people to sacrifice and struggle to get the rights and demands of our people.” This is a message to his rivals that he would stay in the competition arena through his presence in the Peshmerga establishment, which has strong influence among the various institutions in Kurdistan.
2- Waning tendencies of separation: In his speech, Barzani called on the federal government to hold “healthy negotiations based on the constitution”, rejecting what he described as “any plans to undermine Kurdistan and its dignity.” During his speech, he put the Iraqi flag beside the Kurdish flag, indicating that he would not probably stick to the demands of separation from Iraq at the current stage.
3- Aggravated Kurdish differences: Barzani blamed other Kurdish parties and movements for the deepening crisis, accusing them of “high treason,” adding that the “treason of handing over Kirkuk created a deep rift.” This means that forging an alliance with them in the future will not be easy due to the lack of mutual trust between the parties.
4- Slamming the American stance: Massoud Barzani blasted the US attitude over the recent developments in Kurdistan and its neutral stance in the crisis between the federal government and the region, wondering: “Why does Washington support punishing Kurdistan?”, but he ignored to mention that the US had rejected the referendum, to which he did not heed to, before deciding to conduct the referendum on secession.
Who will Succeed Barzani?
Many of Barzani’s supporters demonstrated following his announcement to step down, storming the parliament to express their anger against the members who demanded him to step down. Some of the demonstrators burned the PUK headquarters and Change Movement in several cities including Erbil and Duhok.
The conflicting political positions of the Kurdish political parties have clearly surfaced, reflecting the entrenched internal Kurdish differences. This was evident in the media and verbal exchanges between members of the parliament themselves and their disagreement on many critical issues pertaining to Kurdistan. However, the foremost question is: who will succeed Barzani? There are many candidates to replace him, on top of them are the following:
1- Masrour Barzani, the son of Massoud Barzani, is the Chancellor of the Kurdistan Region Security Council and a member of the Central Committee of the Kurdistan Democratic Party. He has only appeared in political life recently. His candidacy to take over the position of his father cannot be excluded, especially since the succession of the son to his father is the practice of many of the Iraqi parties. Masrour Barzani supports separation from Iraq.
2- Nechirvan Barzani, the nephew of Massoud Barzani. He took over most of his uncle tasks after his resignation, on top of which leading Peshmerga forces. He is the Prime Minister of Iraqi Kurdistan and one of the most prominent young Kurdish leaders interested in economy and development, rather than war and conflict. He was against moving ahead with the referendum.
3- Barham Salih, one of the PUK leaders, was the former prime minister of Kurdistan and deputy prime minister of Iraq. He has broad experience in politics.
4- Mohamed Tawfiq Rahim, a leader in the Change Movement and one of the most prominent opponents of Barzani. He has already registered his name to stand for presidential election of Kurdistan. He held several positions, such as participating in the first government formed by the Iraqi Governing Council in 2003.
In conclusion, it can be argued that the resignation of Barzani does not mean he is completely out of the Kurdish political scene. His supporters in the Kurdistan Democratic Party are still in control of major power centers within Kurdistan and some of his family members dominate security and political institutions. After Barzani’s resignation, tensions and divisions between Kurdish political forces are likely to intensify, affecting political stability in the region.
