On November 2, Ethiopia's government and the Tigrayan rebels signed an unexpected peace deal, ending two years of brutal civil war that devastated the Tigray region. Ethiopia soon established the Council for National Peace to bring about peace by raising awareness, national solidarity, and civil engagement. The Council hopes to educate Ethiopians on the value of peace and national peacebuilding. Yet, the government faces underlying challenges with a deeply rooted history of ethnic complexity and tensions entrenched in the nation's very own constitution.
The Tigrayan war has wreaked havoc on Ethiopia. Just 24 months of fighting has killed more than 600 thousand people in Tigray. And while the fighting seems to be over self-rule and independence, there runs a far more complex conflict of ethnic identities, which has been politicised by both sides to mobilise fighters and support. Other regional states have experienced similar tensions, sometimes leading to deadly conflict. The roots of these conflicts and their dynamics become more difficult to unpack and overcome, thus requiring creative and constructive approaches to building peace and national unity. Pretoria might be the beginning of sustainable peace in war-ridden Tigray, Amhara, and Afar, where national consensus may be possible after all.
The Impact of a Prolonged Narrative of War
Ethiopia's peace deal is set to cease the fighting among all belligerent sides. The road to total and sustainable peace certainly is long and complex. It requires intensive trust building and forming transparency and reconciliation committees. And despite wide criticism from other Ethiopian factions who were not supportive of the deal, their support remains crucial to the national peace, for a national political consensus is the only way to achieving a complete ceasefire, rebel disarmament, and re-integration.
The biggest challenge facing the Tigray peace process is the prevalence of the war narrative promoted during the war. Fighters were mobilised under ethnic banners and slogans. And these narratives thrived on social media, which became parallel and virtual spaces for conflict.
The federal government portrayed their enemies as terrorists and traitors. Such labelling has brought to the popular memory past conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan rebels, consisting of Eritrean People's Liberation Front and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), who together toppled the government in 1991. The Tigrayan rebels' abhorrent track record on human rights during their regime between 1991 and 2018 has let the federal government position the conflict as an 'existential war' against traitors and terrorists, mobilising the media, the public, and the diaspora, in their war against rebel groups.
Similarly, the TPLF utilised a radical narrative to mobilise Tigaryans inside and outside the region. They've labelled the federal government as illegitimate and that their struggle had been one against the ethnic cleansing of the Tigrayans. As such, both sides have forged demonising narratives that have fueled the identity conflict.
The geographic spread of the conflict played a role in fuelling the narratives. Tigray Defence Forces attacked the federal government in the southern areas of the region– Amhara and Afar –complicating the war by resurfacing historic ethnic feuds. The fighting spread to surrounding tribal areas, and the war no longer became confined to the political space.
The Crisis of 'Cultural Engineering'
Amid self-congratulation and celebration in Pretoria, another ethnic conflict has been ongoing since December in the Oromia region, killing more than 350 people and displacing 400 thousand of others. The real dilemma lies in sweeping historical narratives and many attempts of 'ethnic engineering' of the Ethiopian nation. Ethiopia's history is intertwined with myth, religion, and perceived exceptionalism. The establishment of modern Ethiopia must be examined through an ethnic lens which reveals the significant role of the Solomonic dynasty in building a narrative of superiority based on historical biblical mythology. This narrative is clearly reflected in Ethiopia's national identity, whether during its anti-colonial struggle, culminating in the Battle of Adwa, or as a significant continental power hosting the African Union headquarters since 1963.
The expansionist tendencies of the Ethiopian state became a source of profound worry for other neighbouring ethnicities. History has seen the Ethiopian empire under Menelik II take over vast regions in all four corners, calling native inhabitants of newly captured territories' infidels' or 'congregates', reducing them to second-class citizens. The Amhara forced the other ethnic groups to integrate, leading to deep division between the Omoro people and the Amharans. For the Omoro people, the Amharans were simply colonisers who took control of their fertile lands. This history has fed into the Oromo Liberation Front agenda since 1976 to liberate their people and draw political, social, and cultural borders with the Amhara.
Fundamental Challenges
In light of the above, we may observe three main hurdles that lie in the way of sustainable peace in Ethiopia, which could be summarised as follows:
1. Disputed territory:
A central issue for several generations and political elite, belligerent factions have invoked historical claims and grievances since Menelik II to explain their marginalisation and justify their revolt. These feed into Oromo's nationalistic struggle for independence.
2. Exclusionary policy of successive federal governments:
Fuelling separatist sentiment, especially of the Omoro, the largest ethnic group in the country. Nevertheless, even within the Omoro exist disagreements and many political parties that do not align on political agenda and priorities. Politically, the Omoro are more divided than united.
3. Deeper conflict runs through the Ethiopian nationalist movements:
This divides diasporic political elites and political and intellectual elites residing in the country. This fraction is clearly reflected in a nationwide disagreement on the definitions of ethnic identity.
In conclusion, the ongoing fighting between the federal government and separatist rebels runs deep and is more complicated. Peacebuilding, therefore, will require a national consensus and coordination. The new Council for National Peace indicates a breakthrough in a long-lived conflict. But the Council's effectiveness requires a national will and agreement between all tribal and ethnic groups to make a difference. In particular, engagement and consultation among political elites, national media, and rebel groups in Tigray, Amhara and Afar are essential to delivering change in Ethiopia. Other political parties and the opposition would also need to be engaged, given their alliances and networks of influence across the fighting sides.
On a popular level, the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa suggests tribal elders and civic leaders be involved, as well as youth leaders. Only national dialogue across the entire national spectrum would break ethnic stereotypes a rebuild social connections, which remains the most difficult dilemma beyond efforts for national peace.
